We continually add money to the $63 million we'll pay Ellsbury over the next three years, until a trading partner signs on. Maybe we add $30 million - reducing the next team's salary commitment to $11 million per season. Maybe we add $40 million. Either way, we simply keep carting pallets of cash onto the loading dock until someone says, "Sold!" and gives us two Single A bobbleheads, who will convey the appearance of a deal. It's a horrible transaction, not only in concept but reality, because someone - maybe hated Seattle - will get a 34-year-old, hustling veteran with a comeback year inside him, while we'll pay the bulk of his salary through Trump's entire four years. Moreover, we might face Ellsbury in the playoffs. (Can you say, "Brian McCann" three times, like "Beetlejuice?")
Nevertheless, everybody knows the Empire must unclog its pipes for the rise of young players, and Ellsbury represents a juicy adult diaper flushed down the toilet. Aaron Hicks is our CF, Clint Frazier needs to play, Jake Cave deserves a chance, Billy McKinney waits on the cusp, and in two years, Estevan Florial could be jiggling the handle. And that's not counting Bryce Harper and the mysterious "like" of October 16, which has bewitched the conspiratorial Yankiverse like a fresh sighting of Nessie.
But, but but... what if, no matter how we grease the trade with money, nobody will give squat for Ellsbury? What if, instead of sending prospects, they demand prospects for taking Ellsbury's rancid contract off our hands? It's quite possible that not even Cooperstown Cashman can avoid the fate of having to trade a serviceable player for a warm six-pack of Iron City.
Because here's the real rub: Ellsbury is a good player. Last year, returning from a concussion - an injury we wish on nobody - he put together a solid October to finish at .264, with 7 HR and 22 stolen bases. Frankly, I thought he deserved a few more at bats in the post-season - he was our hottest hitter going in - but I don't fault Girardi. The Yankees went farther than we expected, and Aaron Hicks was our CF. Them's the breaks.
Still, Ellsbury looks like the classic veteran with one good year left in his stool sample. Next season, I can imagine him hitting .300 with 15 HR and 35 SB. He'd play LF, of course, and offer solid defense. In other words, he's Brett Gardner.
Listen: Whenever I think about trading Gardy, I hate myself. He is a lifelong Yankee, a rare beast, he reps a link to our last World Series, and he's a pitch-taking grinder. Last season, at age 34 - (same as Ellsbury) - he hit .264 - (same as Ellsbury) - with 21 HR and 23 SB. (He came to bat 594 times, far more than Ellsbury's 356; so the power numbers are higher, but the SBs shows a distinct advantage to Ellsbury.) Statistically, they are H.P. Lovecraft doppelgangers: Gardy with more power, Ellsbury with more speed.
So... let's agree on one point: The Yankees cannot keep both Gardner and Ellsbury next year. One must go. And what if they cannot unload Ellsbury?
Well, Gardy is sitting on the last year of a $13 million contract. He's a valuable commodity. I can see many teams coveting his leadership, his personality, his defense and his ability to get on base. (But wait: Last year, his OBP was .350; Ellsbury's was .348. Careerwise, Gardy is .347, and Ellsbury .342. They are the same fucking player, people.) Yes, it's blaspheme to say, but if we trade Gardner, we might get a bullpen LOOGY or a few decent prospects, with Ellsbury moving to LF, where a comeback year could boost his trade value next winter.
Yeah, I hate myself for saying this: But the best move the Yankees might make this winter would be to hold onto Ellsbury and trade his astral twin. The new manager could mean a new lease on life for Ellsbury. And we simply cannot go to opening day with the twosome circling each other like those distant stars that recently were seen to collide, exploding into the void.
It's going to be a tough winter. The trades that are coming - they won't all be fun and games.
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33 comments:
Here is an idea:
Wait and see what happens. It is stupid to just give Jacoby to a rival ( i.e. to continue paying the salary, etc ), much less
to " throw in " a couple of our prospects to get rid of him.
So let's eat the contract and let him compete for a spot. If Billy McKinney or Jake Cave play so well ( spring training ) that they force themselves onto the team, so be it. If Jacoby is Jacoby, he stays and one ( or both ) of the above named prospects goes back to Scranton for another season. After another year, the decisions get easier.
Remember; Hicks forced his way onto the team as our stating CF. He might also force his way off, if he reverts to previous mediocrity. We started to see that in the playoffs.
Maybe he becomes the trade bait.
Jacoby, at worst, is amazing depth ( even if not cost efficient ). At best, he has a comeback year.
Injuries happen. Teams panic. Maybe we can catch a break, rather than delivering one to someone else.
I don't know what has gotten into me.
The cannabidiol is still working!
Something happened to you in Amsterdam. What did Dutch Fan put in your drink?
Duque, check if Alfonzo still casts a shadow. Could be a doppelganger.
Keep Jacoby. Trade Hicks. The past year was an anomaly, and not such a fantastic one when you factor in injury and the way he reverted to the mean late in the year.
Ells becomes the fourth outfielder behind Gardy, Judge, and whichever kid knocks the hell out of the ball in spring training.
Can we trade Betances?
Poor Gardy, the guy would have been named captain had they not spent the last 7 offseasons trying to deal him.
It's not my money. But the answer is really clear:
a. Send Ellsbury to Single-A, so he can ride the bench.
b. Pay him what he's due.
They paid A-Roid $21 million in "sitting-around money" this past year. So Ells in 18-19-20 would be an annual renewal (and Reminder)......of past mistakes.
"They are the same fucking player"?????
Ellsbury's 2017 fangraphs war was 1.6.
Gardy's 2017 fangraphs WAR was 3.8. That put Gardy seventh among all MLB qualifiers, and THIRD among AL qualifiers--the third best left fielder in the AL. By contrast, Ellsbury's 1.6 WAR places him 16th among AL centerfielders with at least 100 plate appearances, and 30th among all MLB centerfielders.
A major reason for this is DEFENSE, which duque reliably omits from his player evaluations (all the while condescending to the daily sportswriter hacks and fans who perpetrate similar analytical follies). Ellsbury's defensive WAR is MINUS 3.6, whereas Gardy's 1.1 puts him seventh among MLB qualifiers and third in the AL.
Combine all this with Gardy's superior baserunning abilities, and you realize two things: Gardy is FAR superior to Ellsbury as an all-aroud player, not "the same fucking player," and duque has no idea what he's talking about in his feeble attempts at baseball analysis and should confine himself to doing puckish humor pieces on the foibles of Yankee management.
which metric figures in Chief's amazing, historic, league-leading ability to generate Catcher's Interference calls? Which aspect of Gardner's game is league-leading, let alone historic? Anyone?
try as you might, this game resists all efforts to statistically judge a player's comparative value. otherwise, you'd be able to predict baseball.
Biatch!
KD the idiot checks in to talk about a feature of offense that happens so rarely as to be statistically and practically a nullity.
Moreover, he asks a typically specious question--does Gardner have to lead the league, much lass have HISTORIC numbers, in any area, to be a far superior player to Ellsbury? Obviously not. The issue here is not whether (a) Gardner qualifies for the Hall of Fame, but whether he (b) is a far superior player to Ellsbury. OBVIOUSLY--to anyone but a moron like KD--(a) can be false while (b) is still true--just as KD can be an idiot while still being more intelligent than a rock (although I reserve judgment on the latter).
By the way--on defense alone, Gardner's defense ranks second (to Alex Gordon of the Royals) among AL left fielders and fourth among MLB left fielders.
PLUS--Gardner ranks first among all AL left fielders in pitch discipline. This is really a key offensive skill that nevertheless remains invisible to baseball philistines like KD and duque (I hesitate to group those two together because duque at least is witty and a good writer--KD is just a moron.)
BY CONTRAST: Ellsbury's defensive ranking places him 30th among MLB centerfielders with at least 100 PA. This sucks--big-time.
Any other questions, moron?
Oh, man! Just because a play is rare doesn't mean it can't be celebrated and valued. Just like the rare attempt to steal home, the uncommon Catcher's Interference Call is a beloved heart-stopping, game-changing event that all fans cherish.
Sassy, have you ever been at a game when there was a Catcher's Interference Call? Dude! The excitement is OFF THE CHARTS!
You've much to learn, grasshopper.
IDIOT. Even your sarcasm is stupid.
You want us to think that you were foisting only on catcher's interference in an arch way. But you were also trying to cast aspersions on Gardner in a serious way, notwithstanding your pretense to satire. You're a blog suckup. You wouldn't dare admit that duque is way off the mark on this. You're too stupid, and too obsequious for that.
WAR is not the answer.
You cannot compare Gardner's defense in LF with Ellsbury in center. If Ellsbury moved to left, he would make himself - as Gardy did - into one of the best defensive LF in the game. His weakness is his arm, and that's why he lost CF to Aaron Hicks.
They are so alike you could plot a murder around them.
duque--I'm sorry, but you're way off on this. Gardner has far more range and a far better arm than Ellsbury, no matter where he's playing. Ellsbury is a DEFICIENT outfielder in any spot because of his lack of speed, lack of instinct for getting a jump on the ball, lack of range, and sub-par throwing arm. He's also not nearly as speedy as Girardi on the bases. Gardner also has a higher OPS and far superior plate discipline.
You based your entire assessment on OBP. That's just lazy analysis. Sorry--but whom or what are going to believe, your sloppy, deficient "analysis" or the rounded assessment of the metrics used by the top professionals in the game?
You arbitrary assertion that WAR is meaningless is just a coverup for the laziness and slopiness of hanging your entire inept analysis on OBP alone.
WAR.
What is ya good for?
Absoludly nuttin.
You are dead-on, Duque. Get rid of Gardy. We cannot afford to be sentimental anymore.
I thought we wanted to avoid WAR, at all costs...and I don't care if it's bWAR, or F(u)WAR, or whichever kind...
That being said, and I absolutely HATE to agree with Stat-Boy - - ever - - I do have to agree that Gardy is the more desirable player. This is based, NOT on Stupid Lil' Bat Boy's Beloved Statistics, but on consistent observation - - by watching the games: Gardy is really, really good at fouling off pitch after pitch, and wearing down the opposing pitcher - - we've seen it, time and time, again - - plus, as Sassy Lil' Bat-Boy pointed out, Gardy does have a far superior throwing arm; Ellsbury has one of the worst throwing-arms I have ever seen in an outfielder.
I, personally, would rather keep Gardy than Jake; whether that is offset by that odious contract they awarded the Chief, though - - is a point which management is going to have to settle - - and live with their decision. Grow a pair, Hal - - take charge. LB (No J)
"Stat Boy"--Every GM in baseball who gets paid several million dollars per year to make decisions concerning tens of millions in payroll, vs. some flatulent Internet flame jerk who "watches games."
Such a turgid scenario you describe, Stat-Boy...
Yeah, I'm so sure it's me against all those wealthy GMs...
One only needs a good pair of eyes and a good brain to familiarize oneself with players' characteristics and their values - - your so-called "advanced" analysis is wholly unnecessary - - unless you wish to let someone else make all the subjective judgments FOR you, condense them into numerical formulas, and feed them whole to mindless fools such as you, to spout your "superiority" to the rest of us.
Obviously, no one is paying YOU for any of that - - if they were, you wouldn't be having the time to plague us mortals and our favorite fan-blog - - day and night. LB (No J)
"One only needs a good pair of eyes and a good brain to familiarize oneself with players' characteristics and their values - - your so-called "advanced" analysis is wholly unnecessary."
And yet the most successful teams use analytics the most extensively. You will never understand the reasons for this because you are a complete IGNORAMUS AND ILLITERATE in this field. I'm sure you have never read a single book on the subject. Remember Bob Dylan's advice? "Don't criticize what you can't understand." Think it about it. In the meantime, there are two fascinating and readable books that can help to lead you out of your cave of illiteracy: "The Hidden Game of Baseball," by Palmer and Thorn--one of the seminal classics in this field--and "Baseball Between the Numbers," the latest revised edition, by the editors of Baseball Prospectus. Both are very entertaining and informative. And I guarantee that once you read them, you will find yourself embarrassed by your incessant philistine babble on this subject. (Both are available on amazon.)
Sassy wrote "Think it about it". A typo! what a dunderheaded fool!! Hey, don't bitch. Just judging you by your own standards.
I really do wonder why you hang with us when you have no sense of humor. seriously. why?? You could make your points without being so nasty. Really perplexed about you and your anger issues.
P.S. Cornell is a Cow College. Does that strike a nerve?
KD--you're not only a moron, you're a crude moron.
As for sense of humor--I've never seen you post anything remotely witty--just dumbass philistine blather and strained sophomoric japes of the kind a guy makes on a date trying to impress a girl who is furtively checking her watch.
Fuck off. loser.
And I've never flamed anyone over a typo--illiteracy and stupidity, yes. So expect more love letters from me, moron.
Hey KD--I bet you've never read the two books I suggested above either. In fact, I doubt that you read many books at all--your posts reek of groupthink mediocrity--not an idea or an impulse that you haven't sucked in from the midcult corporate media. A walking photocopy of the lowest-common-denominator zeitgest. A dribbling cipher. YUCK.
There are plenty of posts on the interwebs by this anonymous poster named 'anonymous' that flame about typos and punctuation.
Sassy, you are a liar, or using someone else's screen name. Either way you are less than a douche bag. More like a jizz stain on this site.
Oh, and your small market beaneaters have a fanbase of racist townie assholes.
Other than that, you are probably fat, dumb and lazy. But I have already called you a RS fan.
Stat Boy:
1) You mean, the "most successful teams" - - like, for instance, the Ass-Tros?? Or did you just mean the teams who have had consistently high draft-picks, in Bud Selig's Communistic quest to achieve parity in mediocrity?? Or, perhaps, both??
2) Thanks so much for the recommendations of those two - - no doubt - - fascinating books - - books which would beseech me to stop bothering to make my own judgments on players, teams, and the like - - why not let someone else do it for me - - and shovel it all into some dandy rows of numbers?? Sounds fascinating. I shall submit them, in order added, to my bucket-list of several thousands books - - mostly on the humanities and the visual arts. Boo-ya!!
3) You really SHOULD consider seeing someone about your disabling anger issues; if you like, since you made such a contribution to my reading-list, I would also be happy to make recommendations for your diet. Feel free to ask...
4) What's with the cow-college?? I know Moo U when I see it. LB (No J)
You are out of your fucking mind. You make these sweeping judgments about books you've never read. People recommend books, and food, and restaurants, and TVs and audio systems, etc., to other people all the time. Only a psychotic like you takes this as an insult and starts sputtering impotent reage in response. Go take some lithium. You're a seriously diseased human being.
In addition, moron, ALL the most successful teams--including consistently successful ones without the advantage of high draft picks--rely on advanced analytics now: the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, etc.--in fact there's no team that doesn't staff its front office now with analytics competence primarily in mind. But I'm sorry--I forgot that I'm trying to offer facts and logic to failure-impotence-resentment-gagged psychotic. I won't make that mistake again!
Rufus T. Firefly--Groucho Marx is spinning in his grave.
You're not funny, you're not knowledgeable, you're not informed--you're just another of this blogs pile-on jerks.
Look, Nasty Anonymous Buck aside, the questions here really aren't if Ellsbury is as good as Gardy.
They are:
—Will trading Ellsbury mean giving up not only cash, but prospects?
—Will trading Gardner bring in useful players, and not cost any cash?
If the answers to both are "yes," then trading Gardner might well make more sense.
We now return you to our regularly scheduled screeching.
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