If all the Yankees have great years, yep, this team could overtake Boston. And if I learn to manipulate time, I'll rekindle my long-lost NBA career!
On this team, I count 15 certifiable coin flips: 50-50 shots for success. As everyone knows, you flip a nickel 15 times, you might go 15-0! But a better bet is somewhere down the middle. If, say, eight of these 15 turn out to be tails - that is, flops - we could be straining for a wild card. If 10 go against us, we could find ourselves chasing Toronto and Tampa.
The Coin Flips:
1. Brett Gardner in left field. He hit .237 last year, and he turns 36 in August. Yes, he's a jolly good fellow, which nobody can deny. But what makes us think he'll return to form? And frankly, what form?
2. Gary Sanchez at catcher. He fell short of .200 last year, with horrible defense. For some reason, the Yankees are sold on a turnaround. Explain this to me again?
3. Troy Tulowitski. Calling a 35-year-old SS who missed most of the last two seasons a "coin flip" is a leap of faith. "Long shot" is a better phrase.
4. Greg Bird/Luke Voit at first. Bird simply hasn't hit. Voit simply hasn't been tested. Why are we figuring 1B won't be a problem?
5. Didi Gregorius back by July. Surely, he will return. Will he be compromised by having missed spring training? How long will it take him to reach normalcy?
6. DJ LeMahiue hitting outside of Colorado. He's our superstar 2019 free agent acquisition. Is he glove only? If Tulo gets hurt, and Gleyber moves to SS, what do we have?
7. The health of Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. Both are known gonad-tweakers.
8. The defense of Miguel Andujar. By some numbers, he was the worst fielding 3B in MLB last year. Everyone says he'll improve. (As they did last year around now with Sanchez.) If he doesn't, we're screwed.
9. Fifth starter CC Sabathia. The guy isn't just coming off of a bad season; he's coming off angioplasty. Hell-o-o?
10. The roller coasters of Aroldis Chapman and Dellin Betances. Both showed wide variations last year, especially with El Chapo's knee. We talk about our great bullpen, but when either of these guys cannot throw strikes, the truth is that no lead is safe.
11. James Paxton's history of injuries. He's only an ace when healthy. But in his six year career, he's never thrown more than 160 innings.
12. Luis Severino's status as "ace." Frankly, he was terrible during the second half, so bad the Yankees claim he must have been tipping pitches.
13. Gleyber Torres' drop in production in the second half. Did the league catch up with him? What happens if he must play SS?
14. The health of Aaron Hicks. He's never made it through a full season. He's already reporting a bad back.
15. The lack of MLB-ready prospects at Scranton. Last year, we had a bundle of young players, which we traded en route to the wild card. Now, there is - well, Domingo German, Clint Frazier and - um - maybe somebody will surprise us. And Red Thunder better avoid the walls.
Want a projection on the 2019 Yankees. Flip the coin 15 times. Hal Steinbrenner refused to put his money down on Bryce or Manny. He must feel lucky. And, when you're born a billionaire, why wouldn't he feel that way?
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17 comments:
Pretty generous calling these "coin flips". Thanks for ruining the day early.
it's more akin to rolling loaded dice. much higher probability of a negative outcome than a positive outcome. But that duque! Boy, what an optimist!!
:-)
IS THE GLASS HALF FULL?
...OR HALF EMPTY?
MR. DUQUE, WE CAN'T CALL CLINT "RED THUNDER" ANYMORE.
HE DOESN'T LIKE IT.
HOWEVER, I SUGGEST WE KEEP CALLING HIM THAT, UNTIL HE BECOMES A FULL TIME PLAYER AND THREAT.
THEN, WE ACCOMMODATE HIM.
To paraphrase the great John M, the optimist says the glass is half full. The pessimist says the glass is half empty. But the realist yells Hey! That glass over there? That's piss!!!
or.. something like that..
yes. he took the "double Micky" as a number. he has much to prove.
Amen, Duque! Amazing, though, how much the Knights of the Press Box have refused to let reality intrude on their rosy-glassed scenarios.
I hate to inject some optimism into this site. I know it can ruin many commenters day. While Duque, as usual, dissects important aspects of the Yankees team heading into the 2019 season, every club ( and fans of) has these very same roster concerns. Even the Red Sox. Very definitely the Red Sox.
Here is Boston's projected opening day lineup.
Start with their outfield:
Mookie Betts-RF Their most solid contributor. But can he duplicate his numbers from last year?
A. Benintendi- LF Year number 3 and a solid contributor who makes contact and middling power. Will he continue to progress? Will he hit near .290 with an OBA of around .350? All questionable.
Bradley, Jr-CF Excellent fielder but has regressed substantially as a hitter since his one good year in 2016. Probably on the trade block if the team isn't in first or contending for WC.
Infield:
Dustin Pedroia-2B Shot....done with no replacement.
M Moreland-1B Average at best. If Bird and Voit platoon, each one will hit more than his 15 HR last year. Turns 34 during the year with a career BA of .251. An age related downturn?
R Devers-3B Still only 22 but he has a more erratic arm than Andujar. Hit just .240 last year with an OBA of .298. Did hit 21 HR but a liability. Will he improve or regress?
X Bogaerts-SS Clearly the best of the infielders. Had a break out year at 26 last year. But 2017 he had a huge down year from a decent 2016. Will alternate year consistency problems reappear or has he turned the corner?
Leon/Vasquez- C Both can't hit for shit and have negative WAR last year. Only 1 can throw out runners.
SP:
David Price- Had a decent year last season (except against the Yankees). But he's one pitch away from forced retirement.
Chris Sale- Arguably one of the top 3 pitchers when healthy. But he threw almost 60 less innings than the year before when towards the end of 2017 they limited his innings at the end of the year. Personally, I think he is a David Price, Jr in that he is likely to have a debilitating injury to his arm. He has thrown too many innings/pitches on a very thin frame.
Rick Porcello-Has been a lucky recipient of Red Sox hitting. Only one good year with Sox in his Cy Young 2016 season. In his other 3 years with them ERA's of 4.92, 4.65 and 4.28 respectively. Is it more of the same from Porcello?
Eduardo Rodriguez- Nothing special. Frequently hurt and limited innings. Lifetime 4.12 ERA and a middling WHIP.
Nathan Eovaldi- 1/2 pitch away from disaster. Will he pitch like last year or find his arm in a sling by mid season?
Bullpen:
LOLOLOLOLOLOL
No one decent and Matt Barnes the closer? Seriously?
So there you have it....Boston has as many, if not more question marks than the Yankees for 2019. They are projected to win 97 games. Take the under!!!
Point taken, Carl, but please allow me to be a relativist here.
We could have been a lot better. We could have been trying our best to win, rather than to just be really pretty good, maybe possibly. There are ALWAYS question marks for every team and every team's whorish press corps is allowed to be all pollyanna at this time of year. THAT is not the issue.
The issue is that Hal is not trying nearly as hard as he could to make the team as good as he can make it. It's verging on a commitment to mediocrity, despite their bloviation about "death star" blah blah blah.
Nothing we say and no comparisons we make with other teams really matter right now. We just could have tried harder and the season has not yet even begun.
You must allow New Yorkers their god-given right to complain loudly and mightily to the heavens (and hell). Hal is a cheapskate and Duque called it first with the brilliant "Food Stamps Hal" campaign from years past.
Hal is cheap. Brian is an idiot. Two immutable truths.
Oh, I couldn't agree more, 13 Bit. I am a native New Yorker and few bitch more than I do. Absolutely, Hal doesn't give a rat's ass about winning....just saving. Their front office is bloated, arrogant and mostly incompetent elitists. Yet compared to most other teams-the ones that have never truly cared about winning (and I include the Mets/Wilpons in this group) at least there is some residual DNA in the Steinbrenner family, however recessive, that wont enable them to totally tank.
Severino s ratcheted from start with shoulder discomfort
Never mind there will be some bum of the month we can pick up for peanuts that will be hailed as a wonder move.
Expect Paxton to have his long overdue Tommy John diagnosis any day soon
Hey, Dallas Keuchel is still available. Can probably get him on 2-3 years.
It will be big game James Shields as he is way cheaper in $$$$$
Judge a known gonad tweaker!? Come on!
Some host on ESPN radio was arguing with a fan, saying they Yanks don't need to sign Keuchel because they already have five starters.
Oh, yeah, Mr. Wisenheimer?
Sevvy and CC are either already done or will be in the near future.
So, that's three.
Hey, how bout that Lasagna?
"Five starters!" (ROLLING ON THE FLOOR AND CHOKING ON MY OWN LAUGHTER)
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