Wednesday, January 18, 2017

Cutting through the ridiculous hype on Clint Frazier

I'm weary of the incessantly upbeat Yankeeganda about prospect Clint Frazier. It's creating an expectations game that is unfair to the kid. Nothing he does will ever be good enough. It's not right.

Therefore, to tamp things down, I'm using the standardized preliminary data-curve methodology - including game video, workout regime, psychological tests, stool sample analyses and aural-areola evaluations - to calculate career projections for Frazier. I do this not to show off my computing skills, or to place myself on some pedestal of technological wizardry - the last thing I want is to make this about me - but to help Yankee fans get a realistic handle on what to expect. (Scientific Note:  I am calculating the "traditional" measuring sticks - HR, RBI and batting average - rather than the WAR, BAPID, and FUBAR analyses, which I generally prefer. The margin of error here is 3.3 percent, plus or minus.)

PROJECTED CAREER FOR CLINT FRAZIER
(*denotes league leader)

2017 (23): 7 HR, 21 RBI, .252.
2018 (24): 23, 59, .268
2019 (25): 43, 109, .282
2020 (26): 49*, 139*, .301
2021 (27): 61*, 145*, .310
2022 (28): 22, 76, .312 (injury)
2023 (29): 57*, 129*, .306
2024 (30): 54*, 142*, .292
2025 (31): 43, 120, .283
2026 (32): 48*, 135*, .289
2027 (33): 45*, 142*, .267
2028 (34): 27, 101, .249
2029 (35): 43*, 145*, .299
2030 (36): 49*, 138*, .287
2031 (37): 40, 130, .283
2032 (38): 28, 101, .254
2033 (39): 16*, 43, .287 (Asteroid shortened season)
2034 (40): 28, 101, .256
2035 (41): 12, 78, .234
CAREER: 730, 2,200, .293

2040: First-ballot Hall of Fame
2041: Becomes blogger for IT IS HIGH
2052: Elected U.S. President
2060: Achieves Immortality
2525 (If man is still alive): Picks son, picks daughter too, from the bottom of long glass tube.

5 comments:

John M said...

And that's the rosy scenario. The bad one is he turns into Clint Howard.

KD said...

finally a sabermetric analysis that makes sense!

Alphonso said...

I have no idea how you did the math. The guy is muscle-bound and unable to move his arms while wearing a winter coat.

These are not signs of a sleek, fleet, athlete.

These are signs of those relatives who live in trees, eat bananas, and are always playing with themselves.

I think we should trade him now. Maybe with Gardy.

For a draft pick.

I think he will not only underachieve. I think he will bomb.

Maybe I am saying this because it is the last good day for most of us.

Leinstery said...

I have a feeling he's going to totally bomb for two reasons. 1) because he seems like a hardo and a bozo and not someone with the maturity to succeed as a professional athlete. Look at Trout vs Harper, both are talented, but Harper is a total buffoon and I think that's why he is wildly inconsistent or in the case of last year, bad. 2) Because he will come up through the Yankees farm system which, although I have been on hiatus, is the kiss of death for a prospect.

And was anyone else shitting bricks when John called Gary the Sanchize during one of his five homerun calls for the guy? I know you guys are Giants fans but I still have vivid nightmares of the original Sanchize. I'm pretty sure there was a greater probability that he would throw a pick in the red zone than touchdown. And I would be remiss if I failed to mention that the Sanchize loved to throw picks in the shadow of his own endzone, and since the offense was never able to flip field position, this happened often. My point is the name Sanchize is cursed and we must keep our hopes down with Gary.

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