Friday, April 10, 2015
Posted by Alphonso at 12:59 PM
Predictably, all the Yankee voices told us last night that CC was really sharp, and everything is positive for this season. He looked smooth on the mound. He struck out 6. His breaking ball was wicked.
He had the one " off" inning, true, but in his history CC has only once had a victory on his first pitching outing of any season. As if there was a biological connection between season starts.
But, I did the math.
It is the same math I did after CC's final spring training tune-up, where the performance was the same ( one bad inning), and the outcome was the same ( Yankee loss). And, not surprisingly, the rhetoric from the Yankee talkers was the same ( CC looks great and ready).
One of the neat things about math; 2+ 2 always equals 4.
Here is how it goes; CC's one " off " inning produced 4 runs for the Blue Jays. This Yankee team is structured to, on average, score 2 runs per game ( I calculate the standard deviation to be 1 run per game. It takes two standard deviations, therefore, for the Yankees to score 4 runs...... about a 99% probability against this ).
So the math says that CC's one "off" inning meant; ballgame over. Yankees lose. Thuuuuuuu Yankees Lose!
So, really, does it matter at all that CC "settled in" and pitched effectively before and after his
one " off" inning?
Let's take a closer look. In that one inning, he had numerous opportunities to, " stop the bleeding." Most particularly, with men at 2nd and 3rd and one out. But CC didn't get the important out that would have capped the inning at Toronto 2, Yanks 0. Nor did he get the next important out. All of a sudden it was Toronto 4, Yanks 0. When it mattered, CC didn't pitch well at all.
The game was over.
Taking satisfaction with what he did surrounding the one "off" inning that lost us the ballgame doesn't mean a thing if that is what he is going to do every time.