Thursday, March 8, 2018

Aaron Judge leading off could mean the death of small ball

Computer models tell us to screw 100-years of tradition and bat your best hitter second, not third. Move him up, and he'll come to bat 50-60 times more per season, which means more runs. Better yet, bat him first, and that's maybe another 50 whacks. It's simple. Trust the numbers. Liars figure, but figures can't lie. 

But the old coot dunno. He still remembers when the prototypical lead-off man was the Angels' little Albie Pearson (now 83, hello sir, do you still google yourself?), and we had Bobby Richardson (82, hows the weather in South Carolina, sir?). They were followed in lineups by cagey Number Twos - like the Dodgers' Junior Gilliam (R.I.P.) or our Tony Kubek (82 and surely off-line, chopping wood somewhere without road access in Wisconsin.) The lead-off man secured first, and from there, a SB and a bunt moved him to third with one out. The next batter shortened his swing to score the run. Simple, effective... and of the previous millennium. 

These days, nobody denies himself a home run swing. Without dingers, he won't last long in the majors. No sooner did we trade for Brendan Drury than the Yanks were touting his new upper-cut trajectory, bringing more power - and presumably, more Ks. Last year, nine MLB shortstops hit 20 or more HRs. This season, the Yankees could field the most prolific homer-hitting lineup in our lifetimes. (Last year, they led baseball with 241.) With Giancarlo and some luck, we could hit 300. 

But a question remains: In a tied ninth inning, can we scratch out one single game-winning run?

Will we have role players, capable of bunting, stealing a base or putting a ball into play when a strikeout is absolutely intolerable? This team could have the brute force power to score 900 runs (last year: 858, second to Houston.) But can we score one with a game on the line? 

We can win 10-1. Can we win 3-2?

The old coot dunno. On a simulation, Aaron Judge leading off makes sense. Last year, Yankee lead-off hitters got on base at a .345 percentage (10th in MLB.) Judge's OBP: .422. Plus, he takes a shitload of pitches. But a lineup where Judge bats first is not geared toward situational hitting, or scratching out the one lone run. It subscribes to the computer model where every batter takes his swings, damn the Ks. 

I submit that Yankee fans should fear this sense of bludgeoning homer-happy hubris. 

Not long ago, the KC Royals won the World Series by scoring one run at a time. Last year, the Redsocks hit 73 fewer homers than the Yankees but still wrapped up the AL East with a week to spare. And they did it without a masher DH and a workable David Price. 

If there is one fear in the Yankiverse this spring, it should be hubris - the real Yankee killer. It's the notion that we can simply homer our way to the pennant or - crazier still, considering playoffs pitching - a world championship. From early indications, Aaron Boone isn't exactly the reincarnation of Billy Martin. In fact, he looks more likely to use computer printouts from upstairs, from his boss, the real decision-maker.

Aaron Judge batting lead-off? Jeez, the old coot dunno. It might look good in a computer simulation. But can we steal a run when we need one? Can we be a championship team? Stay tuned.

8 comments:

Yankee Shamus said...

The minute I saw all four of the talking heads on Around The Horn agree to the notion of this idea, I knew it to be bad. When the Ginger Serpent of the North (you know her as Jackie MacMullan) thinks it’s a great idea... run.

Just. Simply. Run.

Wezil1 said...

And I think I agree with the Old Coot. Really good questions and many of their answers hinge on the manager. The one who, when signed by the Yankees to play third was The Wrong Boone. Similar to the The Wrong Manning. Only baseball. In any case, I am waiting for the back page of the NYP depicting BC as puppetmaster working The Wrong Boone like Liesel in the goatherd skit in Sound of Music

JM said...

Is there a rule that says you have to have a manager at all? Seems like a waste of money here. Just link Cash's laptop to the dugout monitor and have the coaches make the changes and tell the players what to do. I'm not sure you really need the coaches in the dugout all that much, but it will take a little time for that to become palatable.

Boone is a figurehead, the king of Sweden in the Bronx. What's the point? (I did see the king of Sweden in person once, at a benefit concert in Carnegie Hall. Seemed like a nice enough guy.)

Judge batting first is ridiculous. Yes, he has a high on-base percentage, but how often will he come up with nobody on base and hit a dinger? On the other hand, how many times did he come up with guys on base and whiff? And how many of his 52 home runs were solo shots last year? My faulty memory seems to remember, a lot.

So maybe I'm arguing myself out of that. I don't know. Seems crazy, though. But maybe the new game of baseball is no country for old men. And I definitely fit that description.

HoraceClarke66 said...

I happen to know Jackie McMullen. She's really a very nice person. (Can't say I know the king of Sweden.)

And so far I like Ma Boone. He seems to be doing a manager's primary job these days, which is bucking up everybody's confidence, and keeping them loose and ready.

But I agree with Duque on this. I don't like the idea of our leading power hitter going first.

I guess the feeling is that, in the old days (that is, before 2016), you'd be afraid having a big, slow guy on first (not that Judge is so slow!) would lead to more double-plays. But if everyone is swinging for the fences, there won't be so many double-plays anyway.

Still, wasn't the big advantage of getting Stanton supposed to be that he'd be right behind Judge? So is he going to bat second now? Don't like it it!

Anonymous said...

The even-older coot dunno, either...he has dim memories of the Good Old Daze, when players were made to practice moving runners over, and such-like ideas - - now considered foolish by the likes uv da' fWAR & bWAR Creatures.

The King of Sweden wuz, at one time, a really nice guy - - and his brother wuz a helluva' landscape painter (or, wuz that da' King of Norway??) What's the big diff?? They're all welcome here, anyway, not?? and, to the Olympics' Swedish Women's Curling Team, if you're listening, Puh-leez, come over here!! Any time. I'll buy you all dinner...I want some of the glow to rub off.

Now, what wuz I talkin' about?? Oh, yeah, base-a-ball. Been Berry, Berry Gooood To Me. LB (No J)

Anonymous said...

duque--small ball died in 1920, in case you hadn't noticed. And be honest--have you ever read a single study about the actual effectiveness of these small-ball strategies? Or is your entire essay merely a confessional of your romantic, unexamined attachments?

cabish47 said...

Another old coot here.
The most important thing is to string a bunch of high on-base guys together. Even the mashers will occasionally get a single or, dare I say, a double, or a "productive out." We think of our guys too one-dimensionally. I'd rather have more at-bats from our most productive hitters although having Gardy bat leadoff qualifies. What really has changed is the idea of a lesser player who can "handle the bat" to hit and run. Not anymore.

The apostle of small ball in my lifetime was Gene Mauch. What did he win?

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