Tuesday, February 26, 2019

Cooperstown Cashman gets one right

Brace yourselves. As disturbing as this may be - and it's up there on the level of picturing Trump and Kim with shirts off - we must consider the possibility that Brian Cashman is on to something. 

Yesterday's Faustian signing of Aaron Hicks to a seven-year, $70 million deal is probably as safe a bet as the newly sleek and austere Eco-Yankees can make. The Death Star locked up a solid, four-tool CF whose career peak may be yet to come... at a price tag that, if everything goes south, won't turn Hicks into the Second Coming of Jacoby. 

Lately, write-ups on Hicks are blasted with esoteric, Einstein-chalkboard stats that claim to prove he is the second best CF in the AL. Who knows? They can make numbers jump through flaming hoops. But two years ago, Hicks began laying off sliders in the dirt, forcing pitchers to throw strikes and showing flashes of stardom. Trouble was, he'd tweak something, miss five weeks and then return out of kilter. Long ago, he chased the Chief from center field, and last August, he chased dear Gardy from our lead-off spot. He has been a quiet and productive Yankee, and even if seven years looks like a stretch of hope, the odds are good that he'll give us a few solid seasons. Who can complain about this move? Alphonso, look at these numbers - and for a measly $10 million?

Supposedly, Dellin Betances is next, and signing him would make sense from a clubhouse harmony standpoint. Dellin belongs on the Yankees, the only true love he's ever known. But if Hicks represents quiet stability, Betances is a force of chaos. He can strike out the side on less than nine pitches, or blow a seven-run lead without securing an out. It says something that seven years into an MLB career, Betances still can't hold a base-runner. 

I cannot help but think of Betances in the terms that Redsock fans have described of Craig Kimbrel: Even though Boston has no closer, they saw Kimbrel rapidly deteriorating last summer, and ready to pop like Lady Gaga's front porch. With Betances and Aroldis Chapman, you never know who is coming out of the bullpen, Jekyl or Hyde. 

Clearly, by signing Hicks and - recently - Luis Severino, Cashman is exploiting a weak free agent market, one that swirls around ownership collusion, a scandal which features his boss in the Paul Lynde center square. It was old George who used to break ranks with the owners and sign his favorite players. But young Hal has favorite shareholders, beginning with himself. So now is a great time to lock-up long term talent, and Hal in on the move; I cannot argue otherwise, as long as these deals don't someday wind up in federal court.

The questions, though, now get tougher. Is Gary Sanchez an elite catcher or a catastrophe? How high will they go on Aaron Judge, who will certainly want Manny Money. We can certainly wait on Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres, but the next Yankee decade will be hinge on holding the right cards and discarding the boners. Yesterday, Cashman played a smart hand. Good for him. Onward to Cooperstown!

12 comments:

Anonymous said...

SORRY MR. DUQUE, BUT I HAVE TO DISAGREE....

.....AND THE KNEE-JERK REACTION FROM THE MASSES (NOT THE GAMMONITES), AGREE WITH ME.

7 YEARS FOR HICKS IS WAY, WAY OUT OF HAND.

IS THE GLASS HALF FULL?...HICKSIE WAS VERY GOOD LAST YEAR (NOT GREAT).

.....OR IS THE GLASS HALF EMPTY?....IT IS ONLY A COUPLE YEARS AGO WHEN HICKS STUNK UP THE JOINT NIGHTLY... SO BAD, I COULDN'T BELIEVE WE KEPT RUNNING HIM OUT THERE.

HE IS OFT-INJURED AS WELL, (ALWAYS WHEN IT SEEMS HE ALMOST HAS IT ALL FIGURED OUT).

SIGNING HIM TO 7 YEARS AT AGE 29?

I KEEP THINKING OF THE GAME AGAINST THE RED SOX LAST YEAR, WHEN HICKS LET-UP ON A DOUBLE, AND THE BATTER TURNED IT INTO A TRIPLE. IT FIRED UP THE SOX, AND MADE ME SCREAM AT THE TV.

IT TYPIFIED THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THEM AND US.

.....AND WE REWARD THIS.

I KNOW IT MEANS NOTHING, BUT THAT 2019 PROJECTED AVERAGE OF .227 IN THAT FANTASY MAGAZINE STILL HAS BE BOTHERED.

THE PROBLEM IS I CAN SEE IT HAPPENING (AND I DON'T WANT TO HEAR ABOUT OBP)... .227 IS FUCKING .227, AND AN OBP % OF .330 ISN'T THE 2ND COMING.

REMEMBER, HICKS IS CASHMAN'S FRANKENSTEIN EXPERIMENT. HE LOVES HIS DEAL WHICH ADMITTEDLY, HAS BECOME A STEAL...HE HAS NOW IMMORTALIZED THAT TRADE WITH THIS 7 YEAR CONTRACT.

ONCE AGAIN, I HOPE I'M WRONG.

PLEASE, LET ME BE WRONG.

Anonymous said...

What is missing in our analysis thus far is, if Hicks became a free agent at the end of this season and left who would you sign to replace him and at what dollar figure?

Even if there was a superstar available (and there is not) the Yankee front office won't pony up the big bucks to go with a lengthy contract. So you end up with a second tier CF anyway for more than 10M a year.

The issue with Hicks (Now! Not years ago before he changed his approach at the plate)is his inability to stay on the field. That's it.

He's better than average. Sabermetrics makes a case that he's the third best center fielder in baseball. I don't think so but we live in a world where Gary Sanchez, who hits what I weighed in High School, is one of the top offensive catchers.

This is reality. And in this reality there is no one to replace Hicks if he left. Certainly no one better. That person might cost more. The Yankees like Hicks and he them.

Plus, he does have breakout potential. Add that the heir apparent (Florial)is both two years away and has major issues with pitch recognition (So forget him for the time being and maybe forever.)and it makes even more sense.

Under those circumstances a 70M contract with an AAV of 10M a year is a very good deal and a reasonable gamble to take.

And for those of us who don't think he's a top three center fielder, and that includes me, if he's in the conversation we can comfortably go all the way down to top ten.

There are 30 teams. So a top ten CF for 10M? I'll take it.

Doug K.

JM said...

Top 10 is really pushing it, in my humble opinion. Hicks has had such an inconsistent career--and at 29 he's not going to magically get better and stay that way--I don't think he can be ranked in the top 15. Defensively solid, he is pretty speedy, but to cement him into CF the way Cashman has done, and wanted to do, since he was picked up is just lame.

He's no Bernie Williams. No way.

And Bernie himself was no Mick or Joe D.

We just keep dumbing down on that position, for reasons I can't fathom. But maybe this is what the game has come to. Maybe by today's standards, Hicks is a really great idea.

I don't know, it just doesn't make sense to me.

13bit said...

How many young outfielders will now be blocked for years because of Hicks and his new contract? Cashman is a moron. Did we really need to go seven years?

KD said...

there goes my Harper-Frazier-Judge outfield...

13bit said...

My mantra since November:

Brian is a moron.
Hal does not care.

Anonymous said...

John M,

"We just keep dumbing down on that position, for reasons I can't fathom. But maybe this is what the game has come to. Maybe by today's standards, Hicks is a really great idea."

That's pretty much all I'm saying. I know he's not either of the Mickey's. Mantle or Rivers. Or Bernie, or Bobby, or Joe. He's just good for what's available.

Side Note: The Rockies just gave Arenado a massive contract so he won't be available next year if AnDUjar spits the bit. So he'd better not. It also means that the w"e're saving our money for Arenado" line of crap is no longer true. Harper anyone?

Doug K.

HoraceClarke66 said...

Sorry, Duque, I gotta go with ALL-CAPS on this one.

(And hey, isn't it interesting that Hicks' projected 2019 has changed, at least on baseball reference? A few weeks ago he was indeed at that projected .227. Now he's a projected .243. The guy is already having a better 2019, and he hasn't swung a bat in anger!)

I suppose the upside of this is that we won't have to hear anymore lies about how we're saving all our money to get Mookie Betts or Mike Trout.

But really, it doesn't make sense. The commitment is way, way too long.

Hicks is a guy who already has declining numbers, headed into an age when everybody not juicing starts to decline. He's already a frequently injured player whose game depends in good part on his legs.

Not Mickey, Bernie, or Joe D.? He's also not Earle Combs, Bobby Murcer, or Curtis Granderson at his peak with us. We're not going to see Hicks lead the AL in runs scored and RBI, hit 41 homers, steal 25 bases, and finish 4th in the MVP voting.

He's never going to be some weird, wonderful disruptive force, like Mickey Rivers was in 1976-77, or Johnny Dammon in 2006-2009. All he did was catch lightning in a bottle for a couple wonderful months in early 2017. Since his injury then, he's never been quite as good.

The deal was way too long, at the very least. We would have been better off giving him more money for fewer years. Now we've also removed his walk-year incentive.

We have locked in steady (or maybe rapid) deterioration for the next 7 years.

Carl J. Weitz said...

Hicks would have jumped on a 4-year $14 million per deal. He doesn't hit like Bernie but he has a much better arm.

Anonymous said...

DEAR HOSS....13 BIT...KD...CARL WEITZ...AND JOHN M....

WE ARE ALL IN SOLIDARITY ABOUT HICKIE...

WE WANT HIM TO BE A WORLD BEATER...

.....BUT RIGHT NOW, HE IS NO BETTER THAN A MICKEY RIVERS WHO WAS AN AMAZING WINNING COG IN OUR 76, 77, 78 MACHINE.

I DON'T GIVE A SHIT ABOUT "WAR" AND SABERMETRIC NUMBER BULLSHIT.

I RATHER HAVE MICKEY RIVERS LEAD OFF FOR THIS YANKEE TEAM THAN AARON HICKS.

....AND I AM FULLY AWARE THAT HICKS HAS A BETTER ARM, AND CAN HIT 20 MORE HOMERS PER YEAR....

....BUT IF THERE IS A GUY ON 3RD BASE AND LESS THAN 2 OUTS?... HICKS WILL STRIKE OUT, AND RIVERS WILL GROUND OUT TO FIRST FOR AN RBI.

I WANT WINNERS.

BILLY TAUGHT MICKEY HOW....

NOBODY KNOWS ENOUGH TO TEACH HICKS....

Anonymous said...

You have a good point, all-caps; I have been bitching for years that no one on the Yanks' coaching staff seems able - - or even wants to - - teach people how to move runners along.

Sweet frickin' Jehosophat!! Hideki knew better than almost anybody how to move runners over, and when it might make sense to make a productive out - - he is ON OUR STAFF as a special advisor, FGS - - can't somebody persuade him to help these guys out??

At this point, add me to the list above of those with misgivings about the productivity of this deal - - though, hey - - the money certainly won't deplete Halligator's pocket-change cookie jar. LB (No J)

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