Friday, February 15, 2019

The New Big Lie

For years, the Big Lie around New York City baseball was that the Mets could not compete because that rotten Bernie Madoff had robbed them blind.

Come spring training, the writers would cluster around Wilpon Senior and ask him if his team had any big moves planned, and ol' Fred would just look shamefaced and scratch at the ground with his shoe, and bravely mumble something about, "Well, of course I can't talk about the ongoing investigation..."

And everybody would nod in sympathy, and go off and write something along the lines of, "Eli Wiesel AND the Mets?  That Madoff!  Arrrrgh!"

Somehow, none of the Knights of the Press Box ever got around to ask how it was, if Wilpon had been such a big victim, that the federal investigators were trying to claw back money from the Mets owner.

In other words, the Wilpons weren't victims of the Madoff scam at all but beneficiaries, and—wittingly or unwittingly—accomplices, their big name helping to pull in more of the rubes.

"The loss" Fred was referring to was that he would no longer have the guaranteed, every-quarter-like-clockwork, 18 percent payoff on his investment that Madoff delivered to his clients, all of whom should of course have realized that this was simply the latest twist on Mr. Ponzi's marvelous invention.

The Wilpons, in reality, were always an undercapitalized family for major-league ownership in the first place, and more interested in running real estate rackets than anything to do on a baseball field.

Now, though, they are about to be put in the shade by the latest Big Lie:  Hal's Crushing Debt Service.

Haven't you heard?  Poor Hal and his billionaire family have to shell out $90 million clams a year—count 'em, 90,000,000!—just to service the sparkling new ballpark they have bestowed on us, so lovingly plopped right in the middle of what was once a beloved neighborhood park.

We can go into just how awful that park—the first major-league stadium ever NOT to have full views of the field for its bleacher denizens—really is.

But before the consumers of Hal's best scotch and steak get started on just how onerous this debt is upon the Bronx's very own Jean Valjean, let's get the facts down:

—As previously noted, the Yankees received $1.2 billion in tax breaks and direct subsidies for the new House that Hal Built:

http://www.fieldofschemes.com/documents/Yanks-Mets-costs.pdf

1.2 billion—that's over 13 times that $90 million a year payout.

—As reported here and elsewhere, Forbes claims that the Yankees spend the smallest percentage of their revenue on payroll, just 29.7 percent.  In dollar terms, that means of the $650 million in revenue the team reported for 2018, it spent just $193 million on payroll.

That's a gap of $457 million—or over five times the annual, backbreaking payment of $90 mill in debt service.

https://www.pinstripealley.com/2018/12/26/18155959/yankees-spending-budget-payroll-percentage-revenue-player-salaries-free-agents-steinbrenner-cashman

—Of course, determining actual team revenue is about as easy as getting meaningful Russian GDP stats out of Vladdy Putin, as Ma Boone calls him.  It's not clear at all that that figure includes what the team hauls down from YES, the network it is planning to buy back.

And I don't know just what YES under its current ownership pays the Yankees.  But I do know that, according to Forbes, the team got $3.04 billion—that's BILLION—for selling 80 percent of YES to Murdoch back in 2012-2014.

Take away what little in taxes the Steinbrenner's pay and maybe any remaining, minor partners, and they probably cleared, what?  At least $2.5 billion?

Or in other words, close to 30 times that annual debt service.  And we're not even talking about the Yankees' money for radio, foreign-language broadcasts, social media rights, or their share of the national networks' payout of $800 million a year—which comes to about $26.7 million a team.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/barrymbloom/2018/08/28/yankees-intend-to-buy-back-yes-network-after-fox-sale-to-disney/#7c276838161d

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_League_Baseball_on_television

—Also, let's break down those ticket costs.  The Yankees last year had the highest attendance in baseball, at 3,482,855.

Now, with dynamic pricing, getting any figures on average ticket prices is difficult.  But here's CNBC with a 2015 claim that an average Yankees ticket then was $101.43.

Figuring just a moderate inflation in that cost—say, to $110—were talking $383,114,050 in seat prices alone...or four times that notorious $90 million.

https://www.cnbc.com/2015/04/08/the-most-expensive-regular-season-mlb-game-tickets.html

—Of course, one of the rottenest things the Yankees did in building their rotten new stadium, was to  eliminate over 9,000 seats from Yankee Stadium II, in order to almost triple the number of luxury suites, from 19 to 56 (and to lower capacity by about 27,000 from the 74,200 the Yanks first shoved in there on Opening Day, 1923).

Again, it's hard to calculate just how much more money than means, with "dynamic pricing"—i.e., "turning a vendor into a sort of gigantic, institutionalized scalper."

But since the suites currently go for $8,500-$15,000 a game—and can go for up to $20,000 for "premuium" games, I'm figuring they increased revenues on that alone by about $30-$40 million a year.

https://www.suiteexperiencegroup.com/all-suites/mlb/new-york-yankees/

All right, I won't even go into how much the Yanks probably make in profit on their outrageous parking fees, or their merchandise, or their concessions.  (Hey, rat dropping don't grow on trees, you know!).  Or how much they're planning to realize on MLB's brave new push into gambling.

I'll leave it to the good folks at Forbes to estimate how it was—even back in 2015—the Yankees were the wealthiest franchise in the game, with a valuation of $3.4 billion, or nearly 40 times the white-man-from-Cleveland's annual burden.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/nickdesantis/2016/04/08/how-the-10-most-valuable-major-league-baseball-teams-make-their-money-visualized/#40c845c6b5a1

Finally, there's this:  taking into account that the Yanks can deduct that $90 million from their expected luxury tax and revenue-sharing bites—and taking into account that wonderful accounting trick known as "depreciation"—does anyone at all think Hal is REALLY paying out $90 million a year to start with?

Just wanted to ask, before the Next Big Lie gets its boots on.







14 comments:

Ken of Brooklyn said...

Brilliant Hoss>>> MIC DROP AND JAW DROP!!!!!
And I promise not to drop any revenue at the new $$$tadium unless Hall signs Harper and Keuchel. Period.

Joe Formerlyof Brooklyn said...


I respect the effort Hoss put in (as I always do, with him) in the Big Lie item.

HOWEVER: I really could not care less what putting a World Series Champion will cost Hal. Somehow, his dad bought the Yankees for almost nothing in the 1970s, spent his ass off -- and his family ended up with a multi-billion-dollar property.

I think the purchase price was $12 million (?) in 1973 (?). I believe the team has been valued at more than $3 billion (?) in 2017-18-19.....

I am fairly certain my personal investments have not done that well. Altho, in 1973, all I owned was some holey underwear, and a car that ran well on occasion, whenever it was in the mood.

I'm OLD. Worse, I've watched a lot of stupid stuff. I have experienced the tendency of young people (of all sorts, in all professions and in my personal life) to totally disregard History, someone else's directly relevant experience, and such.

NOW: Old people be crazy. Gotta invest in Tesla. I should every bit of my personal information on Facebook, or whatever. Got to plan for that trip to Mars. Got to go with Plan Green (and disregard the cost).

MY POINT: Hal should learn from his father's actions. Spend, spend, and spend some more. Screw the ROI. Screw the advice of the financial people, the baseball people, and the media people.

Boost the minor-league coaching staff. Acquire great players. Enjoy full stadiums (even vs. Kansas City). Pay Aaron Boone take remedial managing by having him watching what Casey Stengel did from 1949 to 1960. Yeah, that's a lot of games -- and a lot of championships!!!

And so forth. Put the money out. Quantify the return on the other side of the season (or the 2020s).

AND: Just Win.

HoraceClarke66 said...

Thanks, Ken, and thanks, Joe FOB.

And Joe—I completely agree (actually, I like the Green New Deal idea, but that's a whole other conversation, or thirty).

From what I can determine, George's original deal on the Yanks was even better. His share of the team seems to have come to only $8 million, all in all—and of that, he probably only had to put forward 10 percent.

That's right. $800,000 to buy the most fabled franchise in North America!

Now, granted, baseball was at a low ebb in 1973. But still. Plus, he got a brand new stadium, AND the rules were about to change to let him bring in exciting and controversial free agents.

But I will give George this: despite being in the midst of running the highly profitable business he had inherited into bankruptcy, he proved a natural at promoting a ballteam. Even if much of it was just George being George, utterly unable to control himself, he made the Yankees exciting again—and his first five or six big free agent signings were pure genius.

Sure, this is the sort of thing Hal can and should do. He could pump up the team just as you and many others here have said, make it great again, become the most popular man in town, AND make still more money.

But he won't—because he doesn't have to.

Unlike his dad, he's not one more bad-decision-on-freighters away from losing his shirt.

Building a team means occasionally taking on a small risk of losing money—when the cartel socialism of MLB has eliminated any risk at all if you just sit tight, collude, and shut up.

Building a team means having to occasionally pay attention to the business you own, instead of handing its daily operation over to sycophants and yes-men.

And building a team probably means, sadly, enhancing he object that your no doubt cruel, belittling, domineering father—the one whose affairs were humiliating your mom even back in Cleveland—loved more than he did you.

This is why so many inherited businesses, even more than inherited countries, fall to pieces.

But hey, thanks to MLB, it's almost impossible for the Yanks to collapse. They will go bobbing along, competing for the Wild Card Play-In game for maybe another 2-3 years while Hal tries to build his global sports empire.

After that, the pitching will probably be so dysfunctional that we'll be told the team must rebuild, which may be used as an excuse to trade or not re-sign what pricey stars remain.

Then we'll be right back at it: newly trimmed payroll, new manager, new blather about the team looking to the future and how maybe, just maybe, if they drive down the payroll enough, they can afford the looming star of the day.

Anonymous said...

Hoss,

A piece this well written and researched deserves a wider audience.

If you go that route, there was one typo that needs to be changed. "does anyone at all think Hal is REALLY paying out $90 a year to start with?" Obviously $90 million.

Truly well done. It's a shame that the beat writers that cover the team never publish an expose with this kind of logic and depth. More people should see it spelled out like this.


Doug K.

Anonymous said...

Hoss,

Sons are never their fathers. It's been brought up here before about James Dolan, The Maras etc.

They should find their own greatness (if they have any)in a different field. (No pun intended)

The fire that builds empires doesn't get passed with DNA. You are correct when you say it's generally the pressure of circumstance.

You mentioned that George wrecked his Dad's shipbuilding business but was great at baseball. Maybe Hal should put his energies into reviving the ship building one. Or perhaps become a painter.

Hal thinks that he has expanded the sports empire he inherited and so is a success. But he is missing the one important trait that his father had.

George hated to lose. Winning was everything.

Hal has never lost. So to him, winning is just, "nice" but not necessary for him to feel successful.

That's the difference right there.

Doug K.

HoraceClarke66 said...

Thanks, Doug K.! Glad you have my back.

And I agree about fathers and sons. And Hal, yeah, I can see why he would completely hate the Yankees. If he were to sell the team, or to hand it over to some great baseball men while he goes off to build soccer in America, that would be fine.

Or, if he had some great theory—or even, TERRIBLE theory of his own—about how the Yankees needed to get more adaptable, sign more role players, etc....hey, I could deal with that, too. I might bitch and moan (I do that a lot, hard as it may be to believe), but I could see it.

But this...?

Leave some joker in charge who has pretty much set a record for being a GM without winning with his ow team? Because the guy just knows how to flatter him, and work the media?

My city has given Hal's family enough money now that the Yankees are a public trust. He OWES us a good faith effort to win. If he can't do that, well, he should sell or hand it over to Hank, or something.

The idea that we have to accept going back to the equivalent of 1914, when the team was owed by a gambling king and a crooked cop who would just as soon rent out the field for a second-tier football game during the pennant race...I can't accept that.

If the Yanks aren't going to try—if they won't be the Yankees anymore—then I'm out.

Anonymous said...

Really glad you laid it out there - - all of it - - URLs included - - for everyone to see for themselves, Hoss. Seems as if, these days, there are just too many parasites, sucking what was the greatest city (and the greatest sports franchises - - and perhaps the most fabulous accumulation of world culture & cuisine, etc.) completely dry. If it is allowed to continue, we're about one square away from back to Ozymandias, I fear.

One consolation for me is that I probably won't be around to see the collapse. We have had seventeen world championships, though, since I began rooting for the Yanks. My only regret is that it should have been several more, had Cash-Tool not exercised his unique - - ummm - - talents - - upon the team with which he had been entrusted.

For now, I am just glad that Sonny-Bunny won't be wearing #55, and be-fouling its history, anymore...no matter what we did, or didn't get for him. We probably could have done worse than LeMayhem and PacksTon, junior G-man of the IL, as well...so there's that - - and maybe fragments of the Green New Deal - - if Halligator-arms doesn't turn it into the New Green Deal, instead. LB (No J)

ranger_lp said...

My mom, RIP, would say crying with two loaves of bread under his arms.

HoraceClarke66 said...

Thanks, LB no J!

So, you've been a fan since the 1947 season, huh? Pretty damned sweet. Hard to think of a better period, although it would have been great to see the Babe, too.

Maybe the optimum would have been to be an 8-year-old kid when Ruth came to town in 1920, and pass away quietly, in one's sleep, a few hours after the 2000 World Series was clinched, age 88.

Yeah, New York, New York. Mind you, I don't miss the dysfunction, all the crime and dirt, but it seems that the color and fun—not to mention the affordability—is fading, too. In my neighborhood now—and in many others—millionaires live above as many empty storefronts as there were during the Great Depression, and the subway is sliding slowly back to the bad old days.

I think that's a lot of what happened to Amazon, and both Cuomo the Lesser and Bill-dee should have seen it coming.

They keep looking at NYC as an aggregate, a set of statistics. It's not. Like Soylent Green, it's people. And even if you have the big green, it seems to me that, every year now, it's a lot less fun to live in.

Carl J. Weitz said...

Good research, Horace!

The Mets once had to borrow from MLB. If I remember correctly it was because of their investment money being held up by the government, specifically by the appointed administrator who also was the trustee in the auto bailout payback of 2008. But the Mets only lost a very small % of what could have been their total exposure and I think they got all but about $60 million back, more than half of which was declared tax deductible. And now they have their own "Mini-Yes", SNY, so their cash flow is more like a cash cow. And that doesn't count, as you mentioned in the Yankees example, all the parking, concessions, tickets and a share of every MLB media venture and merchandise. We all should be as poor as the Wilpon & Katz families.

Speaking of tax deductions, that $ 90 million dollar loan service is also tax deductible so Hal should STFU about that once and for all.

The one thing you will NEVER see made public and always asked for by the MLBPA in every contract negotiation is a copy of each team's books. The reason is obvious. They play fast and loose with write-offs where one hand pays the other but it is made to appear as a legitimate expense. So you can conservatively add at least another 25% to every team's bottom line. With all the bitching about how small-market teams don't have the capacity to pay like the bigger market teams, that too is just accounting BS. If so many teams lost so much money, why hasn't any team sold for a loss? Even the pitiful Marlins were bought for 158 million and sold 15 years later for 1.2 billion. Not exactly chump change.

Carl J. Weitz said...

100% tax deductible for interest on business loans*

Anonymous said...

Hoss, I slightly mis-characterised my Yankee fandom: I should have said, they have won seventeen championships during my lifetime (I was here in 1947, and I don't know that I was precocious enough to be rooting for them for that one. Wasn't long, thereafter, though.... LB (No J)

JM said...

This is a great post. Just had to say that.

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