Don't go into the 9th without an ABS challenge in your pocket.
If you do, you're like a football team in a two-minute drill without any timeouts.
Last night, having squandered their two challenges early on, the '25/'26 Yanks agonized as pitch after pitch fluttered around the plate like an Iranian drone, to be called a strike.
The victim was J. C, Escara - (who, with the Martian in Scranton, turned out to be our last lefty batter.) Poor guy had to watch as the home plate ump, wanting to put this rain-delayed game into the books, expanded the strike zone like a peacock's plumage.
I'm not blaming Boone, or the brain trust, or anybody, for this new reality, which has hit baseball like a blown-out upstream dam. The ABS system is here to stay, and the Death Barge better figure it out - like, now - because it's showing the world, dramatically, who owns the strike zone, and who has not a clue.
The Yankees have been one of MLB's most aggressive teams in tapping their heads and challenging calls. They rank 10th in overall success, according to ESPN's stat tracker which is the most interesting new set of baseball stats since we asked, WAR, what is you go for?
Some takeaways from the tracker:
Austin Wells ranks 13th among catchers, with a 71 percent success rate. He is 5 for 7. It looks as though catchers will be the most vigorous - and critical - challengers. Their ABS success - or lack of it - will compete with the art of pitch framing and release time to second base. Right now, Dillon Dingler of the Tigers has the best ABS record, by far, among catchers; he's 7 for 7. If this continues, you'll hear his name when Golden Gloves are announced.
Yankee pitchers are not jumping into this pond. Max Fried is the only one to register a challenge and succeed. He's 1 for 1. Donno what to make of this. You wanna think that, when they return, cagy vets Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon would exploit this system. In fact, it could be the opposite: Baseball will have had two months to learn the new reality. For ABS, Cole and Rodon will be wild-eyed rookies. Weird, eh?
Trent Grisham and Jose Caballero are the most frequent Yankee batters, thus far. Both are 2 for 3 in challenges. Obviously, this is too small a sample size to draw conclusions, but when this system was implemented, everybody thought it would help Aaron Judge, over everybody else. In SF, he successfully overturned a strike call, then hit a towering HR. Since then, crickets. I gotta believe everything will revolve around the Captain. Whatever he does, the team will follow. He will be the most influential Yankee captain in history. (But Jose Caballero, or any of the bottom three batters, should not be team leaders in ABS challenges. I mean, come on...)
There's a trippy relationship between winning games and winning challenges. The last place Redsocks rank 23rd in ABS success, at 46 percent. But the Guardians, leaders in the AL Central, rank 30th; (being in Cleveland is challenging enough, I guess.) The NL leaders - the Marlins, Brewers and Dodgers, are all middle of the pack in ABS success. This is a massive change, and nobody has yet figured it out.
Soon, baseball will explode with ABS analytics. I bet, as you read this, some Yankee wonk is using an entire data center, crunching the $100-per-barrel numbers. The system is already significant enough to belong in box scores (they are not currently shown.) It's a new world, a new reality. And don't get caught in the ninth without a challenge.
19 comments:
"Don't get caught in the 9th without a challenge?"
Yeah, that would seem to be sound advice. And anyone with a good head on his shoulders might have thought of it. But who told them to "be aggressive"? Yep, that'd be Mr. Ba-Boone.
Yesterday, the .170 hitting Grisham blew their last one, right? You'd think Aaron Judge would be the one most likely to challenge, especially on a low strike.
Yet another "reform" done for the benefit of the gambling world. Can't have anything throwing off those prop bets!
So yesterday was the first really irritating loss of the new year. If my predicted 83 wins turns out correct, there'll be a hell of a lot more of these to come.
The search for the most ineffective reliever succeeded pretty early in this one, eh?
Well, so far, they have the best record in baseball. Not much to complain about. They even took 2 of 3 from the fish, when I thought they'd drop 2 of 3.
It still drives me nuts that they bat Judge in the #2 slot. Still drives me nuts when he hits a 2 run homer in the first inning. (Because that might have been a 3 run homer, if he batted #3.)
And how many times in these two losses has Judge come up in the team's last potential at-bat of the game? Yeah, that's right, it ain't happened yet. So all they've done is give away the potential of a bigger 1st inning for a potential extra at-bat that ain't happened yet. Brilliant, just fucking brilliant! (If you're only trying to pad stats and don't give a crap about winning, that is.)
This might've been one of those "gambler's" losses. Remember the play at home plate, with the runner CLEARLY thrown out but called safe by the umpire? And oooooooh, it makes me wonder... doo-doo-doo-doo... oooooooh, it makes me wonder....
Yeah, "the rotten apple" theory, as I call it. There is always one rotten apple out there. Boone found it.
I hear you on that, Hammer! Completely agree. But the conventional wisdom insists that the minuscule number of increased, meaningful at-bats he'll have in the two slot is more important.
This video proposes some strategies around ABS...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ig4nzl-AbjI
Call me a stick in the mud or, as the old jazz fans used to say, a moldy fig, but I don't like all this new crap in the game. Is nothing sacrosanct? Hey Manfred! If you don't stand for something, you'll fall for anything. Or, as they say in the mother country where my people came from, "eat shit and die."
And all this time, Bitty - I thought that you were lab-created in some off-world colony.
The things one learns on a post-Resurrection Monday.
Jeez
Escarra? Really? He was the best option just because he's left handed? Even though he can't hit righties or lefties?
And Bird? Why is he on the roster? Why is Doval?
Boone is a fucking idiot.
I don't even blame the ABS. Escarra could have been given 10 gift strikes and the results would have been the same.
It has been a while since JM has proclaimed Boone to be an idiot.
Now I can rejoice and get moving with my day, my week, my month and the rest of 2026.
(Must have been the lamb and blue cheese . . .)
Thank you, JM !
✅
The challenge system is inherently flawed. Have the computer call ALL the balls and strikes and the problem goes away. Isn’t getting the calls right the objective?
SSS, but the bottom of the lineup is a joke. Grisham is a #9 hitter masquerading as a lead off hitter. Escarra is not a MLB hitter. The issue of backup C was ignored by Cashman during the off season. Maybe they should have an ABS system for GM’s.
One more thing: AI - along with every tech bro on the planet - can suck wind.
I think Grisham is a bench player masquerading as a #9 hitter masquerading as a lead off hitter. Whole lotta masqueradin' goin' on!
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