Pythagoras was a bum.
Hilarious fact of the day: after getting swept by the Milwaukee Brewers, your New York Yankees' chances of winning the World Series actually INCREASED, according to the wizards of analytics.
The Yanks now have not only a 99.1-percent chance to make the playoffs and a 36.8-chance to win the AL pennant, but also a 20.1-chance to take the World Series.
That's higher than the chances of the team that just swept them, the Brewers (15.5 percent). It's almost 10 times as high as those of the Tampa Bay Rays (2.4), who swept them back in April.
It's much higher than that of the Atlanta Braves (8.0), who have more wins than any other team in baseball, or that of the Chicago Cubs (7.9), who have already put together two, 10-game wins streaks on the season). It's even higher than that of the Los Angeles Dodgers (16.2), who are still looking through the couch cushions for enough millions to make the late-season acquisition that will seal their third straight World Series title—something never previously accomplished by a National League team.
The very existence of such odds, to anyone who actually has to watch the brand of miserable baseball now permeating the Former National Pastime, is more proof that Americans not only have a gambling problem, they have a Gambling Stupid Problem.
This gives employment to any number of alleged "experts," who make the real money gulling us into idiotic formulae for determining win probabilities.
Case in point, of course, is the Yankees' "Pythagorean record," the whole reason for their astounding popularity amongst the oddsmakers (Fun historical tidbit: "Pythagorean record" was the original title of "Fascinating Rhythm" by the Gershwin boys, but Irving Berlin told them it would never sell. It's true!).
The Pyth is a mirage, one created mostly by how the Yanks recently enjoyed a week of smashing cupcakes (Actually, the original name of Smashing Pumpkins...okay, okay, I'll stop.)
Thus, in keeping with the fashion of the time, I will give you my Top Ten reasons why the Yankees—brilliant Greek philosophers and mathematicians who have been dead for over 2,500 years to the contrary—will win absolutely nothing again this year:
1)—They can't win the close ones. There is no better example of where analytics, sabremetrics, saber-toothed tigers, etc., let us down. The Yankees are now 3-8 in one-run games. Five of these losses have come in games against the Brewers and Rays—young, aggressive, battling teams (with smart managers) that look much worse on paper. (The other two were against the plucky Mariners and Wandering A's—also young, feisty squads with nothing to lose.)
Has any team in history ever won anything with a less-then .300 percentage in one-run games? Without having read a single stat on it, I will say this: No, they have not.
2)—Fundamentals. We talk about this all the time, usually around October. But it's true. The Yankees don't field or run the bases particularly well, and are schooled not to ever, ever, shorten their swings, go to the opposite field, or bunt, no matter what the situation...this in the era in which regular-season games are decided by the Manfred Man.
3)—They only look dead. The rest of the AL East—and pretty much the rest of baseball—I mean. As Duque predicts, the likes of the Orioles and the Red Sox cannot possibly be this bad. Nor can the Blue Jays. They will rise again shortly, as will a bunch of the other tomato cans we have been pummeling.
And I agree with Duque: look out for the Mets. They may genuinely be a bad team—but the Subway Series is their World Series. No, it's more than that: it's their Götterdämmerung. Hold the umlauts: the Mets will play like their lives are on the line this week.
4)—What's in a name? Everything. I know this sounds crazy, but Cam Schlittler, one of the very, very few decent pitchers Brian Cashman has ever developed in his endless tenure as Yankees GM, will not be a great major-league pitcher.
I'm dreadfully sorry to say this, as a I love the guy. But nobody named Schlittler will ever be a true great. That's just the way the juju gods have fixed it, the miserable bastards.
5)—"I can't get no relief." The joker was right. This is Brian the Brain's 29th year as general manager of the Yankees, and in all that time—the last 26 years—the Brain has never, ever gone into a season with a sufficient bullpen.
(No doubt, he would have gone into every single season without enough pen, but the one that Gene Michael left him with for 1998-2000 was just too good and too inexpensive for even Cashman to eighty-six them in time.)
Cashie got lucky one year—2009—when the Yanks had enough starting pitching that Joe Girardi (still a relatively independent-minded manager) was able to stick both Joba and Phil Hughes in the bullpen for the playoffs. Even then, we almost lost it when he decided to pitch Pettitte on short rest.
It's theoretically possible that, once we get Cole and Rodon back, we can do the same this year. But judging by Rodon's character and Cole's age...that's a bad bet.
6)—Waist deep in the big muddy. Pro sports today are all about depth—another asset that Hal & Pal have failed to provide (again). All seasons are battles of attrition, for which you'd better have a great bench and—in baseball—a good minor-league system, if you want to wade through everything. The Yankees' current BrainRust just doesn't care about such things.
7)—Ryan McMahon. How can I be so mean?? Why, just last week, McMahon went on a tear that got his BA up from .167 to .223. And...after a 1-7 performance in Milwaukee, it's already back to .218. You can expect it to keep plummeting. The man is simply not a major-league hitter. And this year, he has often not been a great major-league fielder, with 4 errors already. This is not a piece on a championship team.
8)—Jazz Chisholm. I genuinely feel bad for the guy. Also, exasperated. Last year, he demonstrated just how little being a 30-30 man has come to mean in the majors. This year, Mr. 50-50 is averaging fewer than 1 RBI every 3 games—and over 1 strikeout a game. And after leading the AL in errors at 2B last year with 12 (in just 100 games there, and another 6 in 30 games at 3B), he has continued his poor fielding, poor decision-making, and general loopiness.
Chisholm is also a lifetime, .170 hitter in 24 postseason games. As with McMahon, how did anyone ever figure he would be a piece on a World Series winner?
9)—Austin Wells. Three years into his major-league career, Austin Wells looks more like Austin Powers (ba-dum-dum!). Five RBI in 31 games and a quarter of a season? These are stats from the deadball era. Someday, some stathead will get a Ph.D for a thesis figuring out how come Cashman catchers always regress to nothingness. Until then, we're left to figure it out. Nobody on the Yankees is.
10)—"You gotta have heart!" So sang the greatest baseball musical ever written, about the greatest baseball team that ever played. Ah, for the days when opponents had to sell their souls to the devil to beat us! Now all they need is...I dunno, maybe a two-year option with Elon Musk?
I know that desire is very hard to measure in athletes, and particularly in baseball, when you play everyday and keeping an even keel is essential. But c'mon. Who among us doubted that the Yanks were going to get swept by the Brewers—or the Rays—after losing the first two games? Who can remember them going into a postseason with fire in the belly? Or the eyes? Or would you believe...fire in the islets of Langerhans?
Among his many failings as a manager, Aaron Boone is not someone able to keep his team motivated or focused over the course of a whole season, or even down the stretch and in the postseason. I don't know how a modern coach or manager does that, mind you. But the fact is there are too many games, for too many years, when the Yankees just don't come to play.
Posts
