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Friday, October 28, 2016

Before we talk ourselves into a catastrophic trade, let's remember the rule of three

Yesterday, some Yankee fan-porn site called Elite Sports NY - "the Pulse of NYC Sports!" - ran a piece calling for the Evils to trade a top SS prospect, because - well - we have too many. Yep, that's what they said. We're overstocked, so we should weed out either Glyber Torres or Jorge Mateo - bundle him with a few Trentonians and Charlestonites, and send the whole kit and kaboodle somewhere for a Miguel Cabrera, or somebody hitting 34 (the age when Tex went south, btw.)

First, whenever I read about Possible Yankee Trades, I wonder if the writer is 14 and posting from study hall. If we know anything about Brian Cashman, it is that he never shows his hand before a trade. Folks write how we're chasing a Cuetto, and he snags an Eovaldi. Predicting trades is the most pointless of pointlessnesses in a generally pointless pointlessness-ocity.

Second, trading a prospect is not an insane notion. These days on the Internet, nobody likes a prospect-hugger. We have three promising young shortstops - Tyler Wade, the third - plus Didi Gregorius and Starlin Castro, who theoretically block everyone's ascent (although one of these days, we need to talk about Starlin.) 

But... let's remember the IT IS HIGH Rule of Three: For every three big prospects, you're lucky if one becomes a star.

This isn't the first big trio to rise from the primordial Yankee ooze. Remember our Big Three "can't-miss" starters - Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain. We traded Kennedy, kept the others - and for all our work, received maybe two years of eighth inning bullpen help (from Phil and Joba.) The fact is, we traded the wrong guy... the one in three.

Remember the Killer B's - Andrew Brackman, Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances? One fizzled, one got traded, and we kept one, in this case, the right one. (Again, though - no starters, just bullpen help. And in theory, Banuelos' light still flickers in Atlanta.)

Last summer, we had a three-way in the Scranton OF - Slade Heathcott, Ben Gamel and Mason Williams. We ditched Slade, traded Gamel (the league MVP) to Seattle for a pack of cigarettes and we've kept Williams. Let's keep fingers crossed.

Future sluggers? We have three: Aaron Judge, Clint Frazier and Greg Bird. (I'm not including Gary Sanchez here, because he's no longer a prospect; he's an MLB catcher.) Maybe we'll get lucky. Maybe they'll all make it - and Tyler Austin, too. Dream on, everybody! Still, it's quite possible that one will succeed - just one. Wanna maybe trade him?

Pitchers? We have James Kaprielian, Justus Sheffield and Chance Adams (and maybe Domingo Acevedo and super-maybe Dillon Tate) Odds are one will make it. Okay, folks, which one? Show of hands? Are we feeling lucky?

So if we're trying to land Miguel Cabrera, which SS goes? Mateo, Torres or Wade? Which slugger goes? And which young pitcher - because don't kid yourself: They'll want one from every group. Are we ready to drop that one-in-three roulette ball?

Listen: The beauty of the Yankees right now is that we have a wave rising in the farm system. Even if we score at a rate of only one out of three, we will explode with talent. If we're lucky - two out of three - we could overtake Boston by next fall. At that point, we can supplement with trades and big free agents.

But if we bundle our future for some 34 year-old Teixeira-in-Training, we run the risk of trading the wrong guys. Of course, we can always play the Yankee hubris game: We're smart and other teams are stupid; nobody else has scouts.

So we can keep building - (I'm hoping we ditch Gardy or McCann to build another threesome) - or we can blow this. Do we feel lucky? AND DAMMIT, STOP POSTING FROM STUDY HALL!

7 comments:

Tom said...

You're scaring me. The thought of acquiring Miggy Cabrera, who was good as far back as 14 World Series ago, gives me the same sense of impending doom as one of Trump's ramble-speeches. Stop it!

Acquiring Cabrera would be like a return to the 90s and the running of the Tartabulls. More recent examples would be the last three years of Tex. Or take the Kevin Youkilis season and add four or five more years. Cabrera's a heck of a hitter, but he's getting old, and always has been -- shall we say -- a bit beefy and prone to injury. Who knows? He might be the next Big Pill Papi. Chances of that panning out, though, are probably less than the IIH one-in-three rule for prospects.

Surely, given the emphasis on young, exciting teams, this discussion of Cabrera is just third-tier internet drivel. I would rather watch Aaron Judge strike out 300 times than start holding an endless series of vigils for the return of Miggy from a series of tweaks, strains and whatnot.



KD said...

Let's hope all this insane and scary Miggy talk is the madcap Yankees way of spoofing us for Halloween.

KD said...

at least a crappy Yankees team does make the Hot Stove more interesting and fun.

John M said...

Our leaders are idiots and we can't be too careful. Hal is as stupid as his father could be and often was, plus he's cheap. That's a rough combination right there.

Anonymous said...

I GOT 2 WORDS FOR OUR OFFENSE ............ EDWIN ENCARNACION. .........HE FITS PERFECTLY AS A FULL TIME DH AND 1B WHEN BIRD NEEDS A DAY OFF.....AND WE DON'T HAVE TO TRADE ANYONE (ALTHOUGH WE WILL LOSE A RULE 5 PICK)........... GET ENCARNACION, CHAPMAN AND MAYBE A DEAL FOR A DECENT STARTER THAT INCLUDES BOTH MCCANN, GARDY AND 1 PROSPECT.....THAT SHOULD PUT US WHERE WE NEED TO BE.....OPEN YOUR WALLET HAL...... MORE THAN ENOUGH MONEY IS COMING OFF THE BOOKS FOR THE NEXT 2 YEARS...I WILL TAKE A CHANCE WITH OUR YOUNG STARTERS (MITCHELL, CESSA, AND GREENY......... ENCARNACION IS THE KEY.

Alphonso said...

I think the guy who authored the trade idea is a guy desperate for a story. So he makes up the worst idea known to baseball.

The Yankees must trade no more. As prospects develop, and as other teams get snake bit at a single position, you get 10X the value trading into that kind of environment. Absent that; hold your cards. You already traded to get the prospects others want.

If a FA can be acquired for just money, and said acquisition fills a need, then buy him. Encarnacion as a DH, for example. But give up nothing. No players, no draft picks ) other than, of course our detritus....Ellsbury, Headley, McCann, Gardy, etc ).

Anonymous said...

AGREED ALPHONSO....AGREED.