You say PECOTA, I say Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm

So Baseball Prospectus has this thing they do (not "That Thing You Do!") that you're probably familiar with. Here's their explanation:

PECOTA is BP's proprietary system that projects player performance based on comparison with historical player-seasons. There are three elements to PECOTA:

1) Major-league equivalencies, to allow us to use minor-league stats to project how a player will perform in the majors;

2) Baseline forecasts, which use weighted averages and regression to the mean to produce an estimate of a player's true talent level;

3) A career-path adjustment, which incorporates information about how comparable players' stats changed over time.

They also use PECOTA (not to be confused with Ricotta) for entire teams in order to "predict" (not actually a prediction, they point out) the final season standings. From what I could understand, this is based on players performing according to their "normal" (not necessarily normal) performance, which for the Yankees is kind of dumb since half the veterans will miss up to 100 games or more due to breaking down.

However, this is what their UNIVAC has spit out for the 2024 season.

Is that readable? Readable-ish? Hope so. We're projected as division winners, with Baltimore somehow projected to be fourth. I know, bizarre in both cases, but Boston is in last place, so there might be some truth to this divisional possibility (not really a possibility, imo).

At any rate, if everyone on our team plays up to their "normal" level, we win in a cakewalk, way, way, way ahead in the percent chance of winning the East (but not actually making it to the Series, with abysmal odds).

By the way, this is a cakewalk. I doubt anyone on the Yankees will do this as they come down the stretch, but I dunno. Maybe Boone. Maybe Hal, wearing his kinky boots.

Oh, and by the way again, PECOTA seems really full of shit, but that's algorithms for ya. And AI, which runs on algos and data mining and other unperfected tech. Just never know what kind of crap it'll churn out. Though I suppose we'll be seeing a lot of it in an election year.

Anyway, enjoy our 94.5 simulated wins! Whoo.