Sunday, January 28, 2018

Existential question: Could the Yankees have been better off without trading for Giancarlo?

Somewhere out there, a zillion Bud Lite years from here, exists the alt-Yankiverse where Brian Cashman spurned the Miami Marlins' flea market offer of Giancarlo Stanton, vaulting us into 2018 on an entirely different trajectory. Instead of NYC, the game's premier slugger went to the Dodgers, and we stood pat with Starlin Castro and two prospects.

Frankly, it's hard to imagine the Yankees in any universe nixing the deal. But it created a roster imbalance that has yet to correct itself. And it's time to ask a stupid question:

Would we be better off if Cashman turned his back and walked away?

By acquiring Stanton, the Empire took on his $25 million per year contract - (minus a $3 mill teaser from the Marlins and the $10 mill owed Castro.) The result: It added $12 mill to our payroll, giving Cashman a mere $22 mill to spend between now and Oct. 1. Considering the call-ups and deadline trades, he has about $15 mill in his pocket.

Had we said nope to Giancarlo, we'd have $34 mill to spend - about $28 mill in mad money.

Think of it this way: We could sign Yu Darvish, Randall Cobb, or anybody we damn well want. Instead of Gio, we'd have Yu and Castro, who could play 2B or go in a trade.

I raise this because, as great as he is, Stanton represents the third bottle opener on our 2018 Swiss Army Knife. While a guy can never have too many bottle openers, the trow does feel heavy, no? When we acquired Stanton, it wasn't so clear that we'd be lashed to Jacoby Ellsbury and his $22 mill salary for the remaining three years of the Trump Administration. We have logjams that, to clear, might require explosives.

Here's the current OF/DH situation:


Judge/Stanton/Gardy/Hicks/Ellsbury... with Clint Frazier, the people's choice, stuck in Scranton or going in a trade. 

Without Stanton, Red Thunder is our fifth OF, and the 2018 Yankees get to unwrap one of the most hyped - ("legendary bat speed!") - prospects of this millennium. Now, he's odd man out, unless we can somehow unload Ellsbury - and to do so, we'll likely get murdered in a trade. 

Here's the current infield situation:

Bird/rookie/Didi/rookie... with Cashman turning over rocks for a cheap free agent, while the Toddfather circles overhead. (My greatest fear, FWIW.)

Without Stanton, Castro plays 2B (or maybe 3B), while Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar and Tyler Wade compete for the open spot. Or we trade Castro and go with rookies at 2B and 3B. (My preference, FWIW.)

Here's the current rotation situation:

Tanaka, Sevvy, CC, Sonny, Monty... and whomever steps forward from a handful of promising young arms. Not bad, really.

But but BUT... without Stanton, we add Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta, Randall Cobb or Lance Lynn, without breaking a luxury tax sweat. 

No Stanton, but a Darvish. 

No Murderer's Row, but a six-man rotation. 

No Stanton/Judge twin towers, but Red Thunder with 250 at bats and Ellsbury looming as less dead weight.

Listen: There are devils in the details here. Without the Stanton trade, we lose more prospects in the December Rule 5 draft, and maybe we don't send Chase Headley to San Diego for scrap lumber. Let me restate that... under no circumstances could Cashman have refused the deal; it was - as the Don would say - "an offer you can't refuse."

But as it stands, the deal looks like less of a slam dunk than immediately advertised. We have a Swiss Army Knife with three bottle openers, and for now, we're drinking from cans. 

10 comments:

Unknown said...

Lame. It's also about pleasing the fans...ALL YEAR. Stanton is from this country, like JUDGE, an All-American type kid. Yu just tipped his pitches/blew the WS. You can't guarantee we win any way. But Cashman has assembled 2/3 of the greatest (looking) outfield ever/Bryce next. Yu will not even be a step up over Andy 2/Jordan M.
This is a thought provoking time. But I think Cash is doing his job.
And.. it's still January.

ranger_lp said...

If we start losing at the start of the year...you will say "I told you so". However, they all start hitting HRs and we hear more of "Back-to-back-to-back...a...belly-to-belly-to-belly...then your premise will go the way of the 8-track tape.

HoraceClarke66 said...

All right, but you neglect these Known Knowns:

—Stanton in the lineup makes everybody better, especially if he is hitting right behind Judge.

—Who else and where else where we going to trade Castro, save to a "rebuilding" organization like Miami?

—Trading Castro opened up not 1 but 2 positions in the infield, meaning that we can give a solid shot not only to Gleyber, who Coops, to his infinite credit, is apparently not willing to give up under any circumstances, but also Andujar. Which means he might be entrenched at third before the Machado follies start.

—No, we don't have Darvish, or Cobb, or Cole, or any of those other so-so starters to overspend on. We have moved up all our good young arms, ready to ride and spread the alarm should anyone go down this season.

So, thanks to the Stanton deal, the kids will play earlier in the infield. The kids will get into the rotation earlier. And everybody will hit better. Doesn't sound like a third bottle opener to me.

Oh, and speaking of known unknowns, where would Stanton be if he wasn't in the Bronx? Houston? Boston?

The one problem we have is Jacoby Ellsbury. The only ways to get rid of that problem are the most direct:

Trade Ellsbury for some low-level lottery ticket, to anyone willing to pick up $5 mill or so of his salary. Or release him, period, so everybody else can play.

Don't "throw in a top prospect so someone will take him." Don't get rid of Red Thunder. Just dump the problem.

Oh, and I agree: Todd Frazier is what worries me most these days. C'mon, Metsies!

HoraceClarke66 said...

Oh, and no soccer, no Yankees (of course), in today's Times.

Soccer 11, NYY 1.

Alphonso said...

Someone will get dinged and keep a spot open for The Red Thunder. Can he catch?

I was never thrilled with the Giancarlo deal because I liked Castro a lot. And the two projects...who knows? But the deal is done. Let the games begin.

If two rookies make our team ( 2nd and 3rd ) it will be a spectacular deal.

JM said...

Gardy and Ells are aging and Ells has always been prone to injury, so I agree with (SHOCKER) Alphonso.

I still think the weakest link in this outfield logjam is Hicks. Fine defensive replacement, but not a starter. Though, of course, Cash will be hanging onto him forever because he and he alone recognized this late bloomer for the true All Star he is. It will take months of batting .220 with little power for Coopy to finally nix Hicks, the perennial potential poster boy.

Recognizing reality sooner than later will be great news for Red. But I figure Ells will be out a lot with dings, maybe Gardy has a stint or two on the DL, and don't forget about Stanton's proclivity for tweaked gonads. That guy will not play a full season.

So when you add it all up, Red gets plenty of playing time, maybe Ells plays up to his potential a bit more in the games he can actually play, and Hicks finally gets the bench or the door. I can live with that.

Anonymous said...

Duque I thought that was an interesting and thoughtful analysis with no small amount of truth. Interestingly, as if frequently the case around here, everyone has a valid point.

I really like John M pointing out that Hicks is essentially an illusion. He could prove us wrong but the second coming of Bernie Williams he is not.

I don't understand Alphonso's Castro love. I judge (no pun) how I feel about Yankees based on whether or not I am glad if they are at the plate. Stanton/Gleybar/Andujar (as does Red )will, at least in the short term and hopefully for years to come, keep me interested. Castro, Headley, Hicks, and Jacoby did/do not. I always hated their at bats.

I also liked Horrace's point about Andujar getting a chance to lock down the position before Manny becomes available. Give me production and then take the $ and go get a pitcher (at the end of the season)

This is Gardy's last year and Jacoby gets cut (like A-rod) next winter. And as Horrace says DON'T Throw in a prospect. It will sort itself out. As Alphonso pointed out someone will get dinged up.

Last thing on Stanton. I'm waiting for the Yankees to go back to back to back to back (Judge, Stanton, Bird, Sanchez) at least once this year. It seems doable.

Doug K.



HoraceClarke66 said...

I still have Hope for Hicks. (Not to be confused with Hope Hicks.)

But yes, Ellsbury can't stay on the field. Hence my diabolical plan to play him constantly at the start of spring training. Run him every time he gets on, put him center with our worst minor-league pitchers going, etc.

With any luck he'll be on the DL by Opening Day. By the time he gets back, with no role open but 5th or 6th outfielder, he'll be willing to take a deal to anywhere.

Leinstery said...

WE GOT PROBLEMS!

The Gammonites are saying the Yankees are talking to the Indians about Kipnis. I can't tell if it's ongoing or dead or just a rumor. Nevertheless we can't sit around and run the risk of picking up a declining player on a 15 million a year contract. Someone cut the Cooperstown's phone line.

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