Tuesday, January 10, 2023

Realistically, what can the Yankees expect from Oswald, Oswaldo and Anthony?

Barring an Cat 5 change of heart within the Circle of Four - (Brian I, Brian II, Omar and the Hen) - the '23 Yanks will place their fate in the hands of a rookie. He will need to beat another rookie, and if he fails, he will be replaced by yet another.

Entering spring training, Oswald Peraza is our leading SS candidate, assuming he beats out Oswaldo Cabrera. If both falter, next up is Anthony Volpe. We can talk up Aaron Judge and the rotation - have at it! - but the '23 Yankees will win or lose based on their infield, and perhaps we should ponder the massive gamble that looms. 

Let's start with Peraza, 22, who looks pudgy for a SS. He stands 6'0" and 200 pounds, a fire hydrant, maybe a future 3B. He bats RH - bummer, because the Yanks already tilt to that side. Last September, in a micro Yankee sample - 49 ABs - he hit .306 with a HR and 2 SBs. 

But overall, between Scranton and his cup of coffee, Peraza batted .259 with 19 HRs and 33 SBs. He fanned 100 times - once every four ABs - with a rather mundane OPS of .778. 

This season, Baseball Reference projects Peraza to hit .265 with 6 HRs in about 250 at bats. How are these numbers derived? Witchcraft. Voodoo. I dunno. But those are the numbers - far closer to an IKF than A-Rod, eh? Just sayin'.

Cabrera, 23, is also rather muscular for a SS - 6'0", 200 lbs. His precocious entrance onto the NYC stage last summer endeared him to the bleacher crowd. Though mostly a 2B, he played six positions with the Yankees - even 1B - never embarrassed himself, not once. He switch hits. He's being discussed as our LF. 

But last year's numbers at Scranton were rather - well - meh-y. Cabrera hit .262 with 8 HRs and 10 SBs. (With the Death Barge, he hit .247 with 6 HRs.) He flopped in our postseason, despite one big HR which he enjoyed a bit too long at home plate. Houston deleted him. 

Baseball Refence projects Oswaldo to hit .253 with 9 HRs. Yeah, those numbers are bogus!, an outrage!, a witch hunt! But they point to a realism that many Yank fans prefer to ignore: These guys didn't exactly rule Triple A. They're young, they'll improve, but neither this season will be Francisco Lindor or Carlos Correa, or even Jeremy Pena. 

Which brings us to Volpe, the alpha dog of the farm. Chosen in the first round of the 2019 draft, he signed a $2.7 million contract and went to the Appalachian Rookie League - where he hit a Hicksian .215. Next came the Covid year washout, when Volpe never saw one pitch. He was a delusion on his way to becoming an afterthought, like most of our first round picks in the late teens.

Then came 2021. That year, Volpe hit .294 with 27 HRs, rising to one of the top prospects in baseball. Last year, he started slowly, heated up, then cooled. Between Double and Triple A, he hit .249 with 21 HRs and - get this - 50 stolen bases. Yes, fifty SBs; the kid can fucking motor. He's listed at 21 - 5'11" and 180 lbs - a natural SS? 

But if the Oswalds fail, will Volpe be ready?   

That's the question, Noble Yorick. Each of these kids has a bright future. But their primes could be three to five years away. Last year, none dominated their levels.

Yankee fans love the idea of a rookie SS who becomes a great leader. It happened in the mid-90s - nearly 30 years ago. It's still wondrous to imagine. But we better be willing to accept a rough spring and summer. Nothing in the fossil record suggests otherwise. To think a star will simply rise - no problems - that's delusional.

22 comments:

JM said...

The good thing is, it doesn't really matter. We still have Jackie at third and the likable but erratic Gleyber at second, with DJ still a question mark.

Our infield, as an indicator of our future success this year, says we ain't goin' nowhere.

13bit said...

And here they are, the hot new salsa trio, Oswald, Oswaldo and Anthony!!!

cut to shot of screaming fans...

Daveyhead said...

I’d really like to see Oswaldo get a real shot in left.

Carl J. Weitz said...
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Carl J. Weitz said...

El Duque, what you write is correct. But a true evaluation of the trio must be colored by the piss poor Yankees organization, especially as it pertains to their minor league player development. Other than Judge, who has had more than a year or two of consistent MLB success?
The answer is no one. There are several players that have had immediate but a very short successful ride on the Yankees. There are obvious reasons why players such as Sanchez, Gleyber and Andujar never duplicate their rookie/full season numbers. Hopefully, Sabean and to some extent Minaya will fix this problem.

The Hammer of God said...

Well, El Duque, thank you for the cold shower and the cold gin, but I don't think anyone here expects Peraza or Cabrera to be stars this year. We just need them to do a good job defensively and do some good situational hitting. Like we saw from Cabrera last year. Like we saw from Jose Trevino last year. Basically, some new blood that brings solid FUNDAMENTALS both offensively and defensively. Some new blood that has a chance to be solid players for the forseeable future.

And we all know how important the SS/2B double play combination can be. A good duo in those positions is the pitcher's best friend. And something that has been missing from the Yankees since Jeter/Cano. IKF at SS and Gleyber Torres at 2B ain't the answer.

edb said...

Duque:
Volpe seems to be the biggest prospect of the the three, The Oswaldos. This is repeating what the Yankees have done for years, develop a few young players. I believe that Hal recognized this. He is attempting to navigate the problem by bringing in Sabean and Minaya. Omar should not do any public speaking. He sounds like an idiot. He does know his business, as does Sabean. I hold Genius Cashman responsible. He has individuals whom he listens to and I believe should know better. I believe I mentioned on this blog, that The Yankees should look to sign as many individuals in scouting that work for teams like The Braves, The Dodgers and The Rays. If they are available, offer them good money and that would be money well spent. I believe I mentioned that in 2022, The Scranton Wilksberre 25 Man Roster consisted of only one player who was 25. That is usually the cutoff point for a minor league player. Wade Boggs came up to The Red Sox at age 26. That is a rare exception. If you follow the Yankees daily activity, The Genius signs a lot of players in their late twenties to minor league contracts. Why is that? Because the Yankees, "On The Whole," do not develop a lot of young prospects. They will have you believe that they do because The Genius trys to pawn them off on other teams. On Yankee's Hot Stove on Yes Monday night, Bob Lorenz, Jack Curry and John Flaherty spoke about how Barren Hicks needs to come into Spring Training hustling for a job and counteract last years season. Facts: Hicks is a .231 hitter, he has hit over .250 twice. They mentioned his .217 season where he his 27 Homers. The ball was supped up. Gardner hit 28. Hicks will be 33 in October. He looks old. The three masters of propaganda on Yes, mentioned that Hicks is still a good fielder. So good that the Yankees' clown manager, benched him for misplaying balls in the outfield. This is a reflection of the individual running The Yankees, Genius Cashman. I will stick to my prediction, NO WORLD SERIES APPEARANCES WITH CASHMAN IN CHARGE.

The Hammer of God said...

@ Carl, I was thinking just the same thing last night. Judge finally developed last year into the big time star that we all thought he had the potential to be. But before Judge, who else did they develop? Gotta go back to Robinson Cano. Wow, that's a long time in baseball. If you consider a baseball "generation" to be maybe 8-10 years, Cano came up something like two to three generations ago!

And what pitchers have they developed, guys who have turned out to be well above average, stars or close to being stars, who were durable enough to last at least one baseball generation of 7 or 8 years? Gotta go back to Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettite. (Sorry, can't count Chin Ming Wong or Luis Severino. Wong wasn't around long enough and Severino hasn't been durable enough.)

I recently saw an interview of Paul Rodgers (of Bad Company). And he was saying that "the life blood of any band is songwriting". In other words, you've got to continually come up with new songs that people like. Otherwise, you turn into a dinosaur, playing 50 year old standards during the Superbowl half time show, or even worse, in some Las Vegas nightclub a la Elvis.

The same thing applies to any sports team. The Yankees haven't developed any good new pitching in MORE THAN A QUARTER CENTURY. They have developed exactly two good position players during THE LAST TWENTY YEARS. This franchise is turning into a FOSSIL before our very eyes.

JM said...

Aannnddd....Correa is going back to the Twins.

The details of this FUBAR deal(s) are going to make fun reading.

HoraceClarke66 said...

Wow. And imagine if that line read, "Correa is going back to the Yankees," JM. Or even, "The world champion New York Yankees."

Just think on that. If not for Genius Cashman's insistence on making a mega trade with Minnesota, we could've signed Correa for a one-year, risk-free, relative pittance. During which he could well have brought us to the promised land. And now...we would be getting him back.

Unbelievable.

HoraceClarke66 said...

Carl, Hammer, you've hit the nail on the head. It's even worse when you contemplate how much of Robbie Cano was real, and how much was pure joy juice.

I was just going to write, "The last guy Cashman considered to be a can't-miss SS was Gleyber Torres. How's that working out for us?"

JM said...

Well, Hoss, as we all know, Cashman is an idiot.

JM said...

Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
·
1m
Sources tell The Post: Mets were willing to fully guarantee 6 years (at $157.5M) but the final 6 would have been only conditionally guaranteed. So Correa will make $42.5M more in first 6 with Twins. Mets and Correa couldn’t get past the language issue. Story to come at
@nypost

JM said...

Josh Donaldson is trending on Twitter. Not all the comments are extremely negative. Just about 98% of them.

Doug K. said...

Just an FYI Maybin no longer in the YES booth.

JM said...

I liked Cam. The worst part of the story is, they really want Beltran back.

jfc

BTR999 said...

It's nice to speculate, but there will be no further big money additions to the team this year. They are adamant about not crossing the $293M luxury tax threshold. Right now, they are about 3M below it, and that $3m ain't doing much. The only plausible salary dump would be trading Torres, possible though unlikely. Basically, this is the same team as last year, just swapping Rodon for Montgomery, with the strong likelihood that Judge, Rizzo, Stanton, DJL, and Cole will underperform against last year's #'s. If one of the 3 triplets has an impact this year, yes - that will help. Do I see that happening? Probably not this year. Peraza KO'd 100 times in MiLB last year a good indicator he is not ready. Cabrera is a super utility type who could be exposed in a starting role. Volpe is likely the best of the 3, he will start at Scranton and hopefully be up by the TD. He has a history of needing time to adjust whenever he moves up a level. Injuries could accelerate his timeline. Summing up, Not optimistic at all, and I'm not even including the worst game manager in the Bigs. Prediction: 85-90 wins, with a chance of injuries causing a complete collapse.

HoraceClarke66 said...

Depressing but true, BTR. And so typically HAL to go halfway, but not more. Like the song says: never, ever mess with Mr. In Between!

It is certainly true that Judge is highly UNlikely to hit anything like 62 homers again. As for the others, I guess DJL could be better if he's not hurt (big if, and he's older), and/or that Stanton and Rizzo could benefit from shiftless baseball. Plus, the pitching—particularly the starting staff—looks to be a little better.

But yes: the other big things that needed to be addressed—left-handed bats, shoring up the infield, more pitching depth, a left fielder—were not.

All that was done, really, was that after intimations of a mass fan desertion to Flushing, the Yanks re-signed their biggest star and brought in a starter who will probably be a considerable improvement but has never won more than 14 games in a season.

Not exactly Homeric.

Mildred Lopez said...


I don't care if Peraza is fat he looked like a slick-fielder the times I saw him. Very smooth, almost effortless, almost as if he's a real shortstop. I think I prefer the fat shortstop learning on the job over the guy we had last year, who looks the part but somehow just doesn't play the part.

Carl J. Weitz said...

@ JM....I understand why they hired and have decided to keep Beltran even though he was worse than Maybin. They're trying to attract a greater Latino viewing audience. But most will listen to the SAP broadcast anyway. Beltran is one of the worst announcers I've ever heard. Perhaps he would do better in the studio with Flaherty and Bob Lorenz. A better idea would be to trade him to the SAP broadcast for Ricky Ricardo. Maybin talked too fast and too often. If he was smart, he'd hire Ken Singleton to mentor him. My friends and I had a running bet when Maybin broadcast. An over/under on how many times he'd say " he didn't try to do too much." I usually won on the over.

AboveAverage said...
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AboveAverage said...

OH MY GAWD! Its only January 10th! There is so much time left before the 2023 season begins! Its a difficult wait - but I will do my very best to steel myself and WEATHER that wait. Speaking of weather - boy oh boy is it raining here. HEY DOUG . . . how are you handling the rain? I've got some sand bags and towels if you need them - we can meet at the Caldecott Tunnel - driving slowly in opposite directions- you. could open the window of your 2023 Bentley Continental GT and I'll quickly toss them in. How about tomorrow ?