Tuesday, August 4, 2015

Crunch the numbers, and the Yankees are in. All they have to do is keep winning.

Why lie? I hate math. I can barely run two bingo boards simultaneously. I'll take the "soft sciences," the ones with essay questions. I'd rather decipher that Hadron Super-Thingy, with the Higgs Bojack Horseman Whatever, than try to calculate Chase Headley's RISP BAPIP. (Frankly, nobody's RISP BAPIP should be put out for public consumption, aside from maybe that Jared guy from Subway, the one whose motto should be "Molest Fresh!" Pictures of his naked RISP BAPID should be published in the Enquirer.)

Nevertheless, here's some old-fashioned, scratchpad math, and I believe it's why "Buyin' Brian" Cashman wouldn't send 20-year-old SS Jorge Mateos (and his 71 stolen bases) to Detroit for a measly dozen starts by Sir David Price.

The Yankees have played 104 games, which leaves 58 to go. If they win half - go 29 and 29 - to overtake them, both the Orioles and Blue Jays must hit Warp Factor 10 speed they haven't achieved since William Shatner could see his shoes. Yes, these are just numbers, and if tomorrow, A-Rod's man-cannon turns bullfrog green and falls into a laundry bin, obviously, all bets are off. But we lead Lord Valtimort's O's by six games in the loss column, and Toronto is down by seven. We can survive a rotten week. They cannot. Also, if the Yankees can win at their current rate - not beyond the realm of imagination, because nobody's confusing the AL East with SEC football - the winged starlings of Baltimore and Toronto can forget the division. They are chasing the one-game Bud Selig Memorial Away Field Wild Card, which is sort of like chasing Typhoid Mary - a fun weekend, but with long term implications.

If the Yankees can go 33 and 25 - that is, do what they've done all year - Toronto, even with Troy Tulowitzki channeling Captain Lou Albano, must go 40 and 15... that is, win seven out of every 10.

I know what you're thinking: Duque, what happened to you? These are just stupid numbers. Since when do you give a crap about numbers? Well, my friends, the entire universe isn't as endless as the calculation of Pi. So don't get snippy about "stupid" numbers. (Not sure, though, if math can explain the Rex Ryan crop circles. They must be the work of extraterrestrials.) That's all we have at the end. Digits on a gravestone. Baltimore has won 8 of their last 10. Toronto, 6.

Of course, we cannot yet calculate the PTDNR: Post-Trade Deadline New Reality. Teams get new players, and the new players get hot. Remember the jolt Alfonso Soriano gave us two seasons ago? For three weeks, Sori was 24 again. Then came the market correction. Maybe Tulo and Price shall be reborn in Toronto. But the math is on our side. I still hate math. But it's nice to have it on our side. It sure beats thinking about Jared's RISP BAPIP.


KD said...

I fear a rift in the jujusphere if Alphonso doesn't slap down this optimism PDQ!!

ceeja said...

This is always a mistake. You can't simply assume that going 29-29 is an easy thing. Bad breaks, slumps, injuries make it very easy to go 24-35. There are not enough games left to make all those breaks/slumps/injuries even out over the long term. A small sample size means a stinky stretch is a real possibility. A 6 game lead is not much. The '64 Phillies were 6 games up on the Cardinals with 11 games to go. the '07 Met were 7 games up on the Phils with 17 games to go.

Also, remember that there are three other teams in striking distance. The odds are that at least one of them gets hot and makes a run.

KD said...

ceeja, nice post. I hope the juju gods are appeased.

joe de pastry said...

I suspect that they didn't trade for Price or Hamels for the same reason they didn't outbid Boston for Moncada. All Hal cares about is maximizing profits. The team is good enough to contend, draw good crowds, and get good tv and radio ratings. Why spend more to make the team better? Less money spent on players = more money in Hal's pocket.
Obviously, I'm glad that they lead the division, but I'm not as enthusiastic as I used to be. If Hal doesn't care more about winning championships why should I?

Moneyplays said...

This team reminds me somewhat of the 1996 team. It was Mariano Duncan who gave the team motto that year: We play today, We win today, DasIt! They should bring it back.