Monday, March 25, 2019

85 wins, third place, no pennant, no post-season... I see, gulp, darkness at the edge of April

It's time to post our expectations for the 2019 season.

I - (state your name) - El Duque, hereby project the Yankees to win 85 games this year and finish out of the running, beaten and bedraggled, a dismal, wretched season of injuries and failure, only made bearable by the escape offered by our bile-laden mockery.  

Damn, I hope I'm wrong. I hope that in your comments and predictions, you will change my mind. But this morning, the boiled turnip roots - left beneath my pillow overnight with a once-chewed Chiclet and the monkey schlong - failed to turn blue, signifying trouble ahead. I cannot ignore science. Also, there are these concerns:  

1. First and foremost, injuries. It's one thing to lose aging vets. It's another to lose standard-issue steel-toed boots, who should be entering their primes. Aaron Hicks' back has mystified both him and the team apothecary. The worry is not that he'll miss a month; it's that he'll return as Zolio Almonte with a shaved noggin. Same goes for Luis Severino and Dellin Betances, who looks particularly drained. If these were the only tweaks, I'd add 10 wins to the projection. But the two pillars of our team - Aaron Judge and Gioncarlo Stanton - have been DL tenants throughout their careers. Why should we expect otherwise? Every team faces injuries. But the Yankees - as shown by yesterday's trade for a career minor league CF - have lost their depth. In 24 hours, we went from Hicks to Mike Tauchman. Does John Sterling have a homer-holler ready? 

2. The infield is a crap shot. Every slot is a question mark. Who's on first? Two players, neither of whom has succeeded over a full MLB season. At 2B, Torres still must prove he's the first-half Gleyber, not the Gleyber who returned in August. At SS, Troy Tulowitzi is a jolly good fellow, which nobody can deny. He's also a 34-year-old rehab project on the wrong side of Jeterhood. Does anyone think he'll last three months? And without spring training, what will be Didi be like? Third base will be fine... if Andujar's footwork has improved. If not, we have no Plan B. Instead, we go straight to Plan 9 from Outer Space: Cashman making deals.  

3. The front office has gaslighted the Yankiverse into thinking Gary "Yadier" Sanchez is one of the game's great catchers, as if his two-month arrival in 2016 has been substantiated by his play. It has not. This spring, "Elston" hit .222 with one homer. He is still young enough to become a fine, if not great, Yankee. But last year, I remember sterling testimonials written about "Pudge's" renewed commitment to the game. What happens when "Yogi" goes through a particularly tough stretch of passed balls? Everybody in baseball will be watching. He has no safety net for the critics. If he's hitting .200 in June, things will turn ugly for "Thurman."

4. We keep hearing about the Yankee bullpen. But who closes? According to reports, El Chapo hasn't yet aired out his fastball this spring. What makes us think his knee will hold up? It didn't last year. Betances went through horrible spells in July and August - he couldn't contain big leads. We seem to think Zack Britton is the answer, but he's still untested over a long haul, since returning from his injury. Who closes? Stephen Tarpley?

5. Who starts? Across the rotation, we have injuries, age, and uncertainty. Big Maple Paxton had a great spring. So did Sonny Gray last year. Paxton has a history of injuries, but we've convinced ourselves he'll be just fine. Masahiro Tanaka has defied MRIs for four years. Will this be the season his elbow goes bump in the night? CC, at age 37, is coming off angioplasty. JA Happ is 36. After that, it's a conga line of Domingo German, Luis Cessa and Gio Gonzalez. This is a championship rotation? What are we smoking? 

6. Supposedly, we plan to fortify with mid-season acquisitions. Supposedly, this should comfort us. Well, I don't feel it. What I see in the last weeks of July are one-sided deals where we trade our future for washed-up veterans or nightmare rental contracts, who have become public whipping mules in small markets. That notion that we should look always forward to the July 31 deadline? That disappeared lonnnnnnng before Sonny Gray. I dread it more than any other time in the calendar year.  

7. Quietly, this has become the worst decade in Yankee history. The worst. But reading the Gammonites, you'd was the Yankees - not Boston - who are on the verge of a dynasty. It's clear that Hal Steinbrenner will never be the big-spending sociopath his father became. What's becoming evident is that Hal is obsessed with paying off his debt on Yankee Stadium, making it the biggest boondoggle in sports history. We watch the Redsocks bring championships to the crown jewel of American stadiums - Fenway Park - while our owner uses this dreary colossus of concrete as his excuse for stinginess. 

Eighty-five wins. Maybe even a sell-off in August. Dark times are coming, folks. 

Or please, please, PLEASE... convince me that the turnip turned blue overnight. Convince me that I'm wrong. 

27 comments:

Local Bargain Jerk said...


I - (state your name) - Local Bargain Jerk, hereby project the Yankees to win 91 games this year and finish out of the running, beaten and bedraggled, a dismal, wretched season of injuries and failure. Nothing will make this bearable, not even our bile-laden mockery.

I further predict:

    - Stanton will recover ... somewhat.

    - Sanchez will move sideways, progress-wise.

    - Boone will not improve.

    - Tulowitzky will not be any kind of answer.

    - We will lose still another starter and we will truly regret not signing Keuchel.


KD said...

88 wins. many injuries and a failed ICS comeback. fake wild card. quick exit. A huge, profitable success for the Halligator. everyone who doesn't need one gets a bonus.

Urban Farmer formerly known as DutchFan said...

I state my name: Urban Farmer formerly known as Dutchfan
# wins: 97
Result: 2nd in AL East + Wild card home advantage + Win
Defeat in ALCS
Farm system totally depleted (ex Red Thunder, Wade and German)

Cashman signs extension until 2030
Hal receives Owner of the Year Award (from NY Post)
Yankees consider move to Salt Lake City

Anonymous said...

96 wins - Stanton wins MVP en route to a 7-game epic battle against the Cubs in which the Yankees win WS#28

Anonymous said...

You forgot #8. Who's running the Yankees?

Anonymous said...

98 WINS.

IT'S GOING TO FEEL LIKE A CONSTANT STRUGGLE, THOUGH.

TRENTON, SCRANTON, REHABBING...

SIMULATED GAMES, DRY SWINGS, THROWING ON FLAT GROUND. HITTING OFF THE TEE.

FUCKING BULLSHIT.

I'M NOT GOING TO PREDICT WHAT PLACE WE WILL COME IN, OR HOW FAR WE MAY GO IN THE PLAYOFFS, OR WORLD SERIES....IT'S TOO AGGRAVATING, AND IT'S A CRAP SHOOT.

WHAT I WILL SAY IS COME THE TRADE DEADLINE IN JULY, COOP WILL REAR HIS UGLY HEAD.

INSTEAD OF MAKING THE DEAL FOR THE GUY WE MUST HAVE TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE, (MADISON BUMGARNER), COOP WILL BRING US SOME HEAD CASE BUM WITH A "POWER ARM".
LIKE A CARLOS MARTINEZ FROM THE CARDINALS.

.....AND HOPEFULLY THAT WILL NOT COST US IN THE END, (BUT IT PROBABLY WILL).

WE ARE ALL UNDER COOP'S CLUTCHES.

MAYBE WE CAN ALL GET LUCKY THIS YEAR, SOMEHOW.

LETS REALIZE, WE DO HAVE SOME REALLY GOOD YOUNG PLAYERS (GLEYBER, ANDUJAR, JUDGE, AND DO I DARE MENTION SANCHEZ)?

SEVERINO'S HEALTH WILL MOST LIKELY MAKE OR BREAK US.

LETS ALL PUT OUR CRASH HELMETS ON, BROTHERS.

GO YANKS.

Anonymous said...

I'll take the under. I'm not optimistic about this season. I think if Judge gets hurt we'll completely implode and finish third or fourth in the division.

Anonymous said...

For anyone who missed it, here was last year's prediction: 96 wins. Pretty close.

Hopefully this year's prediction is further off.

https://johnsterling.blogspot.com/2018/03/write-this-down-96-yankee-wins-return.html

Alphonso said...

I ( state your name ) do hereby declare and avow that the Yankees will win 86 games. Last year, I predicted 85, but Duque has taken my favorite number.

The one game improvement is actually not what it appears.

Last season, we won a lot more than 85 or 86, right? So I was way off the mark. This year, however, I am predicting that I shall be more accurate and, therefore, the actual win total will be closer to reality. In this manner, knowing what happened last season, I am actually more negative, even though ( on paper ) +1 game seems a positive.

However I have taken the "black swan" into my home and know things you don't have access to. Such as swan droppings. Yes, pre-public releases of injuries and dalliances.

As a neo-human, I am tiring of watching Yankees strike out, and I think this is going to be a season of futility. Errors, at least, are "fun." Something is happening. In spring training, people like Gardy would have 14 pitch at bats, only to strike out. I can read three chapters in "War and Peace" during that at bat !!

This spring required me to smoke far too much dope and, as we know, it is only "practice " ( training).

Gardy was interviewed by Our poor wandering woman ( Meredith...find me an insight...Markowitz ), and he said " ready" 6 times in 14 seconds. "I'm ready"; my swing is ready; the team is ready, we're ready; etc." I am ready to strangle myself.

By the way, Duque, the dope we have been smoking all spring and off season is called, " Lemonade Haze."

It is a trip.

But if all the Yankees do, is flounder and flail, I'll be watching Judge Mayblean re-runs instead.

Carl J. Weitz said...

Carl Weitz: 104 Wins-1st in AL East

I'm probably the most optimistic of the group even though Steinbrenner is a foolish tightwad and Cashman is an obsessive moron. But I'm only sanguine about the number of wins because the Red Sox lost their closer, has a mediocre bullpen and won an odds-defying number of one-run games. Couple that with the Yankees improving their pitching, a bit on defense and their best hitters remaining healthy and having to improve over last year (I'm talking about Bird, Sanchez and Stanton). Couple that with 2/3 of the other teams tanking on purpose or otherwise just sucking and there you have the extra 4 game win total over last year.

Oh, and here's another prediction: I say the Tampa Rays take a big step backward and will be fighting Toronto for third/fourth place. They might not win 81 games.

One last thing: Cashman always claims that the reason he screws over his borderline MLB players such as Frazer and Wade, etc and shops on the scrap heap for worse players is because they "have experience" and signs them for insurance. Where is the Yankee's insurance for Cashman's incompetence?

Yankee Daddy Roger said...

I, Yankee Daddy Roger, prophesy the following:

Jacoby Ellsbury will return in May and Tauchman will be released.
Hicks will return in June and undergo back surgery in July. 80% of his salary over the next, what, six years will be covered by insurance.
Severino will return in May and will be ineffective. He will have surgery. 80% of his salary will be covered by insurance over the next, what, five years?
Aaron Judge will get hit by a pitch in the All Star game, triggering a debate that will last until Judge returns in Mid August, as Jesus. The Yankees will make a run, but finish third in the AL East behind the Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays. 87 wins. All of this came to me in a vision while eating a white clam and bacon pizza, the clams forming in my mind's eye pale torn elbow ligaments, the bacon strips coalescing as surgical scars. A crow screeched, a dog howled, as I ate, and outside my window, a shadowy figure rapelled down from the roof. He knocked on the door. "I'm trying to watch the NCAA's" I cried. How is that so wrong, Ma?

13bit said...

87 wins. I had thought they could max out at 93 - and hey, it's a wacky game. you just can't predict it - but, as I said a week ago, I am putting in my chit for 87.

Anonymous said...


I agree with Carl's analysis of the rest of the division. I've got it at 97 Wins and 1st in the AL East. Here are some other reason's why...

1) The infield is fine.

1B If Voit he will play better D because he's working hard at it.
If Bird he will play better D because he's better than anyone else we threw
up there last year.

Both will hit way better than what we got out of the position last year (until Voit showed up). Will Bird get hurt? You bet. Will it matter? Nope. We finally have a first baseman. Actually, right now we have two.

2B) Who ever is playing 2nd (DJ or Gleybar) will be solid. DJ is gold glove at 2nd. Gleybar will hit. Will DJ? I don't know but I ain't worried.

SS) A lot of the times it will be Gleybar in his natural position. Tulo is Jeets towards the end. He will make the easy plays. Then he will get hurt. Eventually Didi returns.

3B) AnDUjar will be better but not that good. But better and will still hit bigtime.

2) The outfield is good. Judge looks fantastic. Stanton is going to improve at the plate because he's more comfortable. Hicks will return and Gardner is always good in the first half (which coincides with Hicks extended absence.)

3) Catcher - Sanchez will hit and field better. I've already seen it this spring. Plus it would be hard for him to do worse. so that's a win.

4) Pitching.

Sure we're fragile but we were fragile last year. Tanaka, CC so we won 100 with them right? Also Paxton >>>>>>>>> Grey by default. Happ all year. Sevi comes back.

Bullpen: Just as good.

So 97 and the division.

Doug K.

Joe Formerlyof Brooklyn said...


I, JFOB, hereby predict 109 wins and a World Series championship.

Reasons:

A. The NYYs team that begins the season is probably good enough to beat most of the others. While we Yankees fans are bemoaning this and that, serious fans of most other teams are looking forward to the football season!

B. Sometime during the looooooong season (more correctly, at different times) the team gets back Didi, AHicks, Monty, and maybe even Betances. That's a lot of oomph to add, potentially. And (sooner rather than later, I hope) -- Sevi and CCS.

C. It's possible that Judge won't again get serious hurt (at least, not missing 40-odd games), and that Stanton will improve. Really, I believe that.

D. I like the bullpen. A lot.

E. In 2018, Boston won the season series 10-9 over NYYs. Best team in baseball! Yes, it's 13-10 if you count the playoffs. I'm pretty sure the Red Communist Sox are not better than last year.

Boston won the season vs. Balto 16-3. NYYs won 12-7. I think that 4 game difference is entirely explainable by Bucky Effing Blowater.

NYYs finished 8 games behind the Sox. Replay the 2018 season with Judge missing only 10 games, and the Yankees doing the same vs. the awful Orioles -- and maybe the situation reverse. This is not "what might have been" but -- let's look at what could be.

E. Finally: All of us have done enough dumping on Brian Cashman, Hal, and Lorna Boone.
NOW, when the team is 48-52 at some point in the season, y'll can have fun dumping on this prediction.

Vampifella said...

The last 5 weeks of play can make the strong teams like the Red Sox, Yanks and Astros go anywhere from 95-105 or higher. It all depends on how much the other teams are phoning in on their games against them. This year's last 5 is easy for the Yanks as they are almost all against teams trying to tank to be the worse, so I'm going with 104 because too many teams will simply hand them games at that point of the season.

I cannot determine who'll go to the WS though. Sox/Stros/Yanks all has about an equal chance. Sox always seems so overpowered but they also loose enough games against the Yanks as well. The Astros can win at any time as well. No one else I really consider a threat against the Yanks. A's/Rays/M's could win a spot just because everyone else is just so bad, but I don't see them being better than the Yanks by any means.

Honestly this year seems rather dull. No one really done much to make themselves amazingly better than 2018.

13bit said...

We do not have pitching. That's a complete, declarative sentence. It's also true. We have a couple of possible Number 3 guys and then some crumbs.

HoraceClarke66 said...

Ah, hell, Duque! I hosied 85 wins last week!

All right, all right: I will say 84.

And yes, I am the guy who predicted 112 wins and meant it last year. That Yankees team had more depth than any I had ever seen, starting out, and their only (slightly) weak spot was the starting pitching.

Well, now the depth and much of the starting staff is gone. COULD this Yankees team still win it all?

Sure. As they like to say in the broadcast booth, stranger things have happened. It wouldn't even have to be THAT strange, considering that one-third of the teams in this sport make the playoffs now, and nearly half are tanking or "rebuilding."

Sure, everything could go right. But it never does—not in the long season. It didn't even in the three greatest seasons ever had by any major-league baseball teams, which also happened to all be Yankees teams:

1998—Strawberry was felled by a near-fatal colon cancer.
1927—Urban Shocker, the pitcher with the greatest baseball name ever, won 18 games, but then was forced off the mound before the World Series because of what turned out to be a fatal illness.
1939—Lou Gehrig.

Those teams were nonetheless the greatest ever because the sage baseball men who ran them were ready with back-ups for almost every contingency. Not so much the braying donkey who runs our team now, or his indifferent boss.

All right, I will say 84 wins.

The Yanks' relief pitching and power should be good enough to get them that many. They will contend for a wild card spot for much of the season, but then finish third in the division, out of the money—Hal Steinbrenner's best-case scenario (attendance and TV ratings remain high, but nobody does well enough to demand a big payday.)

(Boston will not be as good as last year, but it won't matter. They will still win their 4th straight division title and make the World Series, where they will lose to Theo Epstein's Cubs. Take THAT, Boston!)

84 wins, and enjoy them all, boys, for they will be the most you'll see in some time. If a couple more delicate wings fold, this could get really ugly, down in 65-70 territory.

Der Kaiser said...

It feels more like 2013 than 2015. Since the mid-eighties are already spoken for, I will go with 88 (although 83 doesn't feel wrong). Maybe a forlorn wild card, maybe falling just short, thoroughly dispiriting except when I read this blog. Salt Lake City Halligators is a wonderful team name.

Der Kaiser said...

Whoops, sorry, I see KD already called 88. I will warily edge upwards to 89, though that 83 is looking better all the time. Who knows, maybe a late-season labour dispute will save us all!

Anonymous said...

I, LB (No J), am hunkering down at 92 wins, and a mad battle for second place in the AL East. The team has the potential for a lot more wins, if everything went right, but I give you five reasons why they will be lucky, even to hit my predicted number:

1. Ma Boone (he's good for about minus eight wins, I figure).
2. House of Rothschild fails even further
3. Cash-Puss, our very own Eternal Dunderhead
4. Zieg Hal!!
5. the Fully Operation Death Star front office (which is, more accurately, imho,
Fukked Over Delusional Stumble-Bums, not charged, but nor exonerated, either)

I actually expect the pitching-staff to look somewhat better than we all fear, and I believe our mashers will be impressive - - but mainly when it doesn't really matter, and no one's on base. Let no one accuse them of being "clutch".

By September, our farm system will be approximately equal to the usual remnants of
a barnyard. (In Cash-Puss, we don't trust)

This long-time fan is not particularly hopeful for the team, OR the game, at this point.

If you want a few suggestions, Swanny, let me know... LB (No J)

Parson Tom said...

162-0

ranger_lp said...

I'm going with 93 wins which might not be enough for a wild card as the Yanks chase Toronto and Baltimore for the wild card berth...lol.

HoraceClarke66 said...

LB no J, you said the c-word!!

All the saberetricious KNOW there is no such thing as clutch.

Sure, we've all seen it, everybody who has watched the game for as much as a season has seen it. But who are you going to believe? The algorithms or your lying eyes?

Scottish Yankee fan said...

90 wins

I would have chosen slightly lower but mainly because we will play a lot of teams not bothering their arse and deliberately tanking

The pitching seems to have injury worries to almost everyone both starters and relief I expect a record number of Scranton shuttle tips this season

Then as usual we will panic after a losing run and trade what is left of our once highly rated farm system for some past it bum or rental which will be hailed as a great move by the lickspittle sycophants in the press.

Sorry to be so pessimistic and hope I am wrong

BernBabyBern said...

Sorry I'm late arriving to the party, but this is before first pitch, so ...

98-64. If that sounds optimistic, it's not, because that will leave up, once again, in the Segig nose-picker bowl (referred to on the MLB Network and ES-F'n-PN as the "Wild Card Game") where will once again have to roll the dice to see if the year has been a complete waste or not.

I think we get through, and eventually meet with the redsocks again. I can't make a prediction on that, because I can't bring myself to write that Yankees will win out of fear of f*cking with the Juju gods. And I can't bring myself to write that the Yankees will lose to those bastards because ... I just can't.

So anyway, here are some more odds and ends ...

- Judge is Judge. If he gets a full, injury-free season, he's in the top 3 of the MVP voting. If not, we're toast.
- Stanton is better this season than last, and goes on at least one "carry us on his shoulders" tear in the summer. But he'll also have stretches where he'll look like he can't his a beach ball.
- Paxton wins 20. I know, I'm not usually this optimistic, but, well ...
- Severino comes back, struggles, then teases us with a few brilliant starts before he gets hurt again.
- Hicks doesn't get truly healthy all season.
- We hit a bunch of home runs, beat up on all the tanking teams, score 20 at least once this season, and then look like a AA team when a real team with a front-line pitcher comes in.

Rufus T. Firefly said...

100, same as last year. Same postseason disappointment.

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