Tuesday, March 26, 2019

The Yankiverse has spoken: 93.8* wins in 2019

Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, children of all ages, friends, Romans, countrymen, citizens of Earth...

In our collective wisdom - all of our predictions, averaged together - we project a 94-victory season for the 2019 Yankees.

That's six below last year's total, when 94 wins would have taken the Visiting Team Final Wild Card berth, against Oakland.

In a normal year, 94 wins should assure the Yankees of at least the Wild Card, though that game wouldn't necessarily happen in the Bronx. 

In yours and my comments, which run the gamut from hope to despair, we remain flummoxed by one intangible: Injuries. If the Yankees stay healthy, we should beat 94 wins. If we lose a Judge or Chapman, we could slide from contention. There is simply no other way to say it: The fates shall decide whether our lineup remains intact, and whether the Yankees prevail.

And the fates are bastards. Yesterday, Miguel Andujar took a fastball to the wrist. He wobbled on the way to first base. The trainer came out. The stadium went silent. The announcers held their breaths. Andu stayed in the game. All seems well (fingers crossed). But if that pitch had hit an inch higher, the Yankees could be eyeing at a vast stretch without their cleanup hitter. Would 94 wins still look viable? Not to me.  

We spent the winter in a parlor game, obsessing over Manny Machado and Bryce Harper, and wondering why the cash-flush Yankees refused to even make an offer. The problem is our owner, who has imposed austerity on a whim, rather than a necessity. Let's recognize that every Steinbrenner has more money than he or she can spend in this lifetime. Here are some reality-defying financial decisions that shaped this team.

For $13 million, we could have had the rising 29 year-old Patrick Corbin. Instead, we'll pay  $17 million for the 36 year-old war horse, J.A. Happ. This, of course, is a trick of numbers. To get Corbin, we would have had to pay him through 2024 at an escalating salary, ending at $35 million. At three-and-out, Happ will be much cheaper in the long run - though already older than Corbin will be at the end of his ride. We simply chose to be austere.

We'll pay DJ LeMahieu $12 million per year to - well, who knows? Is he a late-inning defensive replacement? A pinch-bunter? Can he play the OF? He's a former Gold Glove 2B with a Styrofoam bat, whose projection to be the Yankee back-up 1B is cringe-worthy. What a thrill it will be, seeing LeMahieu playing first. We'll pay $12 million for a guy who, wherever he plays, should bat ninth. We have him two years. I scratch my head.

We rolled $10 million per season, long-term deals with Luis Severino and Aaron Hicks, barely hours before both reported injuries, which remain mysterious in scope. Out of the blocks, both ailments were pooh-poohed. Now, they threaten the 2019 season, if not the players' careers. For the short run, the Yankees are clearly worried. They signed Gio Gonzalez and traded for career minor leaguer (a Luke Voit-ish nomad) Mike Tauchman. This we know: Whatever the truth is about Sevy and Hicksy, it's probably worse than what they're telling us.

The whole 2019 season seems to hinge on the bet that Troy Tulowitsky can play quality SS for three months. This gamble comes purely from Yankee austerity. We'll pay Tulo the MLB minimum, while Toronto picks up his salary. Nobody disputes the guy's integrity. But he missed last year due to surgery on both heels. Who here feels secure about this?

The Yankees' winter strategy was to sit back, let other teams win the big auctions, and look for flea market bargains. It might work. But it's the strategy of the Kansas City Royals. A great perk of being a Yankee fan used to be that we never had to worry about how much a player was being paid. The team let us escape the financial stresses that rule our lives. Those days are gone, and the Yankees want us to blame Jacoby Ellsbury. Well, not on this website.

Still, 94 wins should get us a Wild Card. I just wonder how Andujar's wrist feels today?

*NOTE: Late-reporting precincts have lowered this number to 93.4 wins.

12 comments:

13bit said...

Who is going to pitch these 94 victories?

13bit said...

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2019/mar/26/how-baseball-owners-came-to-value-profits-over-world-series-titles

JM said...

It's been a crazy 5 or 6 days here, starting off with my meniscus surgery (the front office says I'll be ready by May, but you know they mean June-July). So I completely missed the Monday prognostications about the win total.

But, just for the halibut, I'm saying 89. Thin starting pitching, injuries, front office fuckups, Sanchez proves he's a .200 hitter (but the best out of every catcher in the league!), you know the score. Not a lot to like at this point except the bullpen, who won't matter much because the lack of quality starts will burn them out fast enough.

Too bad. We coulda been a contender.

So. 89. Gotta go get my stitches out, see ya later.

13bit said...

Here's the other reason I come in under 90 - Ma Boone-a-licious.

The Ghost of Yankees Past said...

Too much negativity. But I do agree injuries could be our downfall. Assuming we stay reasonably healthy and Severino comes back, I will go with100 wins, if not one or two more that that.

TheWinWarblist said...

I hate Boone. I hate Cashman. Something altogether more primal is reserved for the Stienebrenners.

Carl J. Weitz said...

Excellent and concise overview of the Yankees 2019 season, Duque. Broken down to the nuts and bolts in a short synopsis.

And Win W....my thoughts exactly about the owners, GM and manager. However, I would extend that to the bloated front office. The elitist, contemptuous, condescending lying sacks of shit that they are. They care nothing about their players, employees (except the sycophants),fans or city.

JM said...

My apologies to Der Kaiser (Es tut mir leid, dude!) for choosing the same number of wins as he did. And after he went to an effort not to overlap previous predictors.

That said, I say, 89, or the nearest available number to it. Don't remember what the ground rules are for the predictive portion of the season.

Also, having finally read all of the predictions, a shout-out to Yankee Daddy Ranger for his entertaining predict-o-comment.

Der Kaiser said...

JM,

I would be honoured to share the prediction. Great minds and all that. Leid muß es nicht tun - wir haben schon genug davon im Leben!

Austria's Only Baseball Fan said...

With my (late) prediction, take it down to 93, at best (barring interference from the revenge of the black swan).

Sorry to read that der Kaiser is having such a sorrowful life. Er muß deutch sein!

Tschüßi baba!

Anonymous said...

Fangraphs, using thousand of computer-simulated seasons to arrive at their number, has the Yankees (as currently constituted) at 97 victories, three more than the Red Sox. They project 85 to the Mutts.

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