Once again, I interrupt Schadenfreude Week to riff off El Duque's lament for the 2026 season—one which we have been lamenting, as usual, since June—let's look at where the statistics say the "Run It Back" Yankees SHOULD have finished in the American League in 2026.
According to the amazing people at baseball reference, an invaluable source, that should have been the top of the world, Ma!
Overall, when it comes to Wins-Over-Replacement value (WAR), the Yankees are first in the AL, at 14.1. A close second is another erratic, under-achieving team this year, the Boston Red Sox, at 13.9.
Tampa Bay, the team that leads them both by a wide margin in the East Division, is at only 7.9.
Driving the Yankees statistical lead is, unsurprisingly, pitching, at 13.1, compared to 6.0 for the next highest, Guardians of Traffic. The Yanks also have a wide lead in starting pitching—10.4, over 5.5 for Detroit—and even a narrow one in relief pitching, at 2.7 to 1.9 for Chicago.
Where do the Yanks fall down? Well, everywhere else.
Yankees non-pitchers have a WAR of 1.0, or just about average in the AL, good for 6th place. They do not have a position at which they lead the league—though remarkably, we are only 13th at catcher, above the White Sox and Angels.
But here is the failure, plain and simple. The Yanks got surprisingly, overwhelmingly good starting pitching, and even decent relief pitching.
Brian Cashman failed to back this with a team that could hit its weight, or pay attention for many games, and a manager who had feel for the game.
What a waste.
Posts
7 comments:
I know analytics offer a useable metric, but many seem incomplete, or at least not encompassing the entirety of a player. I'm a bit of a skeptic. Using your example of WAR or its subsets bWAR and fWAR, there is little, if any, credit for a player who hits a SF. A better measure is the old RBI stat. Actually, depending on which WAR you're using, it docks that hitter because an out was made. Even more exclusive, they really don't consider moving a runner over with less than 2 outs or bunting a runner over when needed. Worse, stats like wOBA lower the WAR score when you do the above, especially if using fWAR. That's why Tampa's team hitting WAR is only slightly higher than the Yankees by about 2,despite knowing that the Rays are so much better at winning extra inning and one-run games than NY because they play fundemental and situational baseball as well as making better contact. This doesn't get captured as much as it should when using analytics. Certainly, modern analytics has evolved since Bill James developed SABR, but as I stated, there is a lot to like when evaluating players and teams using traditional methods,
Good point, Carl Weitz. I myself have often questioned WAR stats in the past, and I think WAR—like most stats—flawed in some respects.
What I meant to put in is that...most of other, older stats seem to back these rankings up. For instance, the Yanks have easily the lowest team ERA in the AL, at 3.21, or more than one-third of a run better than the Red Sox, at 3.59, and better still than TB, at 3.67...
But yes, you're right in saying that's why we have to look at other things as well, such as the good ol' wins column!
Still, it is amazing that Cashie's mishandling of the roster, and Boone's mishandling of game situations, is so bad that the team is barely able to slouch into second place behind a mediocre Rays team with easily the best pitching in the league...
Even more amazing is that this failure will in no way be admitted, examined, or corrected. It will, instead, be called a great success.
We all saw over the winter that this team badly needed a total overhaul with the lineup. Cashman chose to doing nothing for the offense, except bring back the same players who couldn't get it done last year. It was the winter of "run it back". And they insisted that they're right about doing that. If you asked them right now, they'd still insist that they were right to run it back. What can you say? Only in Yankee Wonderland can this bullshit pass muster.
Some things cannot be quantified.
Thank you Hoss, and none of this surprises me me, nor should it surprise any
regular viewer of Yankee baseball. Seems we can only keep repeating that the team values profit over performance, for what other explanation is there, save gross incompetence?
Post a Comment