No, it's not a crapshoot: why this will be yet another year when the Yankees lost the pennant.

 

Oh, my, my, my I'm the lone crap shooter

Playin' the field every night—

—Rolling Stones

Sorry, but the playoffs are not a crapshoot. In fact, before Brian Cashman took full control, the Yankees' postseason success was very closely tied to how they did in the regular season.  

The Yankees have never reached the World Series in a year when they qualified as a wild-card team. When it comes to winning the pennant in those seasons, they are 0-9.

By contrast, from 1976-2001, the Yanks reached the World Series in 9 of the 10 seasons when they finished first during the regular season (or half-season; see 1981). The only time they did not was in 1980, when Mike Ferraro waved Willie Randolph around third (with Reggie Jackson coming to bat!), Graig Nettles and Rick Cerone hit red-hot smashes right at guys in key situations, and Goose Gossage insists on going mano a mano with George Brett.

Otherwise, the Yankees reached the Fall Classic every time, and went 6-3 in those Series. 

Since 2001, it's been different. The Yankees have only reached the Series twice after finishing first, and won just one of those Series. In other words:

1976-2001:  9-1

2002-2009:  2-4

2010-2022:  0-4

Huh, anybody else see a pattern here?

In other words, the Yanks went from 90 percent making the Series—and 66.7 winning the Series—to 20 percent making the Series, and only 50 percent winning it, after they finished first. 

Expect that to continue this season. In fact, I suspect that your New York Yankees will be swept by the Royals, making it 7 straight losses in the playoffs. 

It is true that, the more you force teams to play short series—and the best teams to take extended layoffs—the more upsets you will get. But it's hardly blind chance, even now. 

Cashman's crapshoot remark ignores the fact that, thanks to so many teams now declining, tanking, or rebuilding, it's easier than ever to build a first-place team with two real superstars and a bunch of marginal noodniks, most of them playing out of position.

But we have been lucky enough, in our time, to have two Sterling examples (get it?) of why you can predict baseball—mostly. Two Yankees dynasties that would Win Long and Win Short. 

What were their secrets?...