In looking at the predictions for the season I couldn't help but notice that a lot of us are in the eighties in terms of wins. I don't understand the pessimism. Okay, actually I do, but that doesn't make it so.
The Yankees have put together a solid team. Not a great one but they did do several things to improve on last years roster and, injuries non withstanding, they should be just fine.
Reason One: Fewer Meltdowns
The Yankees main problem, and the one that was exposed for all to see in the fifth inning of last year's World Series game five, was... They meltdown.
As great as Gerrit Cole is, he is one of the most emotionally fragile pitchers I have ever seen.
His every start is filled with dread as fans and the players live in fear of "The Error" that will cause Mr. Angry Pouty Face to appear and flush it away.
Add Rodon to this dynamic and almost two fifths of the starting rotation's games were played in a state of mental exhaustion.
Players get tight. Volpe plays tight, especially in the later innings. Gleyber was just a Gleyber away from Gleyberizing both in the field and on the base paths.
The Yankees were so meltdown prone they were AFRAID to play Jasson over a guy who couldn't hit a pinata at a four year old's birthday party, because an error in the field could and did spell doom.
Sadly it was Judge. But once that ball dropped and Mr. Angry Pouty Face showed up, the game and the series was over.
Replacing Cole with Fried will be a net positive. Not as good as having them both, but they aren't going to have them both, so I'd rather have Fried.
Want proof?
In one of Fried's starts this spring the Yankee infield, botched grounders, threw wild, and failed to make an easy inning ending DP on a ground ball, pretty much all in a row. What did he do? He didn't whine, he didn't pout, he just got another ground ball. And then another ground ball. And then another ground ball.
This had the effect of cooling everyone out. No explosion. No tension. No meltdown.
Yes, they still have Rodon but I have to believe that it's going to be a calmer environment this year especially since...
Reason Two: No Holmes
We all know why. (Cough. Thirteen. Blown. Saves.) The Yankees have the lead. Could be a couple of runs. Time to RELAX and put the game to bed. But they can't. Couple of hits. Couple of walks. Volpe bounces one. Give up another hit. Gleyber Gleybers. Boom! Thirteen. Blown. Saves.
Reason Three: No Gleyber.
Allow me to add to the above. Gleyber fails to cut off the throw. Gleyber slow on the DP. Gleyber kills Yankee rally with bad baserunning etc.
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There are other reasons I believe that they are better this year but these three are huge.
And for those who say the rotation is our doom, I would point out that Gil was great early but then hurt, and marginal upon return, and he will be back. The bullpen is better. Infield defense better. Judge back in right. Better CF as well.
93 Wins.
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21 comments:
All true, Doug.
All. True.
And, in addition, after reading your post, Oliver Tiberius came
over and asked me to update his prediction....so here you go:
Oliver Tiberius Cat (AkA AA’s Cat) Now Says:
89 wins
45 Judge HRs
.269 Martian BA
In closing:
Did you know that Wednesday is considered to be BOTH
Hump and Prince Spaghetti Day ! ? !
AAmazing . . . .
"...injuries non withstanding..."
burying the lede
Hey man, I'm still waiting for El Duque to introduce me to Ms. Bixby. Maybe today will be the day, can't hardly wait to hump that bitch, my happy hump day.
Mildred - You're right but...
Yes Goldschmidt could get hurt. But Rizzo was hurt and ineffective . So if he gets hurt it's a wash.
DJ was hurt. DJ is hurt.
Stanton was hurt. Stanton is hurt.
Gil missed part of last season. Gil will miss part of this season.
Schmidt is hurt but no one was counting on him last year either.
Like I said, Cole + Fried would have been great but Cole was hurt last year as well. So if Fried stays healthy or plays more than Cole that's a plus.
As to other injuries... yeah. always possible. :)
But Doug, what are your predictions for Judge HRs and Martian AB?
Yeah Doug, I agree with you 100%. Actually, I think they win 96. Too optimistic? With Gleyber gone, all things are possible. That guy was singlehandedly responsible for wrecking a whole lotta games. In just about every game, he did something to help the other team's chances.
I woulda traded Prima Donna Cole quite a whiles back. They'll never be able to trade him now.
The loss of DJ LeMahieu and Stanton to the injury ward is a big help too.
No more Rizzo is another big help.
Looking back at Game 5 now, there's so many things Jackass Boone coulda done differently, both during the game and during the regular season. They coulda brought up The Martian much earlier. They coulda benched Rizzo - he was making numerous bad plays and errors that weren't errors leading up to that bonehead play in that 5th inning. He coulda made Soto DH, moved Judge to RF, put Stanton in LF, The Martian in CF. He didn't have to pinch run The Martian for Gleyber in Game 1. He didn't have to burn two players in one shot. He didn't have to bring in a pitcher who hadn't thrown a pitch in two months. Jackass Boone, pretending to be a major league manager.
The reason I want to trade Volpe has nothing to do with his bat, though that also is a sore spot. Volpe doesn't have a real shortstop's arm. He has to wind up to deliver his best fastball. That causes him to rush when the game is on the line. That seems to be the reason that he makes errors at critical times. There'll be more of that this year, plenty more.
As for his bat, this is a guy who needs a personal hitting coach hovering over him every at-bat. He needs extra batting practice before games, extra batting practice after games, which by the way is a recipe for tennis elbow. Every time he hits a home run to left center, he gets super pull happy, jumping out of his shoes to try to launch moonshots. He has talent but he's not a natural hitter. He's extremely prone to bad habits. He needs the right coach to give him personal attention, something that the Yankees can't deliver. Ergo it's better to trade him before his value drops to zero.
Doug - You're right, but...
...actually no buts.
Look at the roster as it appears it will be and there's no RH DH. JD Martinez is still out there, probably a cheap 1-year thing. Trey Mancini supposedly had a good spring but Arizona sent him to the minors - maybe Perazza for Mancini and a wildcard/lugnut/shoehorn?
On that other blog, Bleeding Yankee Blue I think, there's a sob story about losing Gleyber Torres. That is a real good blog too, but that's one story I can't stomach. Gleyber was like an ANTI-Jeter. He made some kind of mistake in every game that helped the other team. That play in World Series Game 1 with the loose ball ticking off his glove - perfect example.
Now that he's with Cheat-stro A.J. Hinch, who is a very good manager, there's a real good chance that Hinch turns him into a really good player. But that wasn't going to happen here, for sure. I thought we'd never get rid of him. Good riddance.
But the sad truth is that with all your optimism Doug (which is really out of place on this blog), there's no Plan B. There's nothing on the bench and nothing in Scranton. This entire season rests, once again, on the fragility of too many older players. It's the kind of roster that The Intern has specialized over the years. In the years past roster holes were filled with these kinds of guys, but now, without any real baseball acumen The Mailroom Boy is still using outdated data. I'm pretty sure if Doug Mientkiewicz were available today, Ca$h would put in a call.
Good point. The bench is definitely thin and potentially a real problem.
52 HRs .281 I think the kid hits and has the ability to learn and adjust.
Can’t share your optimism Doug. I’m sticking with 84 wins, which I arrived at using WAR, fWAR, bWAR, WAR of 1812, and what Capt. Queeg called “geometric logic”. Also, there’s gonna be a lotta injuries. (not to be confused with Lotta Topp)
I picked 89 wins because, you know, the strawberries.
Don't underestimate getting rid of Gleyber. And Rizzo. And the injuries to Stanton & DJL. Some injuries actually help the team.
We'd have a hell of a lot more pitching depth if Cashman hadn't traded four pitchers for a one year rental of Soto. I still can't get over that. Yes, in my heart I was secretly kind of glad that we got Soto and had that duo in the lineup. But we all knew in our heads that it was the wrong wrong wrong move. Four starting pitchers for a one year rental. Has anyone else ever done that in the history of baseball?
After that, Dumbass Cashman could've moved someone like Gleyber Torres, but of course, he didn't. And so we got nothing back for him. Same old story here.
BARTENDER! GIVE ME SOME OF WHAT DOUG'S SMOKING!!!
For anybody coming to the meetup this week in downtown NYC, wear a Mets or a Dodgers cap and use the password we send out under secret email. In this way, we can ensure absolute data security and squad loyalty.
I'm bleary from all this moving to Germany shit. Fucking exhausting. So much to get rid of....down four flights of stairs, especially fun using a hand truck to take down boxes of books.
But I will be there on Friday. Sore muscles, bad back, foggy brain and all.
I apologize in advance for not remembering names and faces. I'm having enough trouble with my own.
I wish I could come down there and meet you degenerate bastards personally. Just started thinking about it a few days ago and the logistics are rough - drive down to Weehawkin, rent a hotel, maybe take some sort of ship across the river. Guess I fucked around till the last minute.
You left out Jake Gatewood which Genius Cashman just acquired.
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