1) The Real Reason The Red Sox Are On A Tear
As El Duque just drove home, the Yankees are done. Boston is
in the process of blowing by us and an elimination game at Fenway is in our future.
Cashman spit the bit at the trade deadline and the Sox got even better but there was one important thing that the Red Soz did that the Yankees did not and it wasn’t adding a catcher, even though they did.
They went on a firing spree.
They fired their manager. When the Red Sox dumped Alex Cora on April 25th they were 10-17. They also fired five other members of the coaching
staff and, I read somewhere that they dumped Driveline and went back to playing
baseball the way G-d intended.
Since then they are
52-35. A mid season cultural and philosophical switch
that is paying off big time.
Why didn’t we think of that?
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2) Question About
Judge Returning
As we all know Cashman’s only moves at the deadline seemed to
acquire players who duplicate what we already have. OK in the short term but it looks like,
barring a setback, (I hated typing that because I just realized that OF COURSE
there will be a set back.) Judge will return in time for the final couple of
weeks and the playoffs.
But how does that look?
Assuming he needs to DH, then, of our three best hitters, the
ones that show up in all the top ten MLB stats, Rice, Judge, and Garcia Jr., only two of them can play unless Garcia goes
to 2B where he is, according to what I read, not good.
Plus, having him there eliminates the only good thing that
happened at the trade deadline, the replacing of Volpe with Lombard Jr. and the
tightening of the infield defense.
If Stanton can come back it gets even stupider. That said, there is no way that happens. Right? They won’t have to sit two of Stanton, Judge, Garcia, and Rice. All while still having to play several guys who hit around .200
No way! Right? Right?
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3) AYGHAB wise The Yankees Are Actually Better Than They Were
But Not Really and Not Good Enough To Matter
For the uninitiated the AYGHAB stands for Are You Glad He’s At Bat.
Based on a 1-10 scale it is a quick measure of, well…
whether or not you are glad a player is at bat.
It changes throughout the year and can depend on the
situation or even the count.
The subjective math never lies.
Look, we have to watch this crap. Okay not HAVE
to, but we’re GOING to and, as we all know, losing...
Judge (AYGHAB 8.5)
Bellinger (6.3 this year down from 7.1 last year.)
and Stanton (2.1 The step in the bucket
swing with his eyes closed version) OR (8.2. Laser shots everywhere Stanton –
usually followed by a trip to the IL)
has left the team for the most part punchless.
However, despite Cashman's failure to find a catcher who can
actually hit or a better third baseman, changes were made. The team is actually
more watchable. How much? Let’s look at AYGHABs.
Quick aside: As soon as Rodon comes back they
should move Weathers to the pen to get him used to the role. He is a
two inning “lights” out guy and should share the set-up duties with
Cruz.
But I digress..
One of the most important features of the AYGHAB is, it
determines how watchable the game is. During the annual Boone Swoon, when
certain hitters are at bat, there’s no reason to even look up at the screen.
Their failure is a foregone conclusion.
Post trade deadline the changes look like this…
Luis Garcia Jr. (8.5) for
Goldschmidt (2.1)
Big improvement.
Sadly but predictably, Goldy is washed. He’s Rizzo now. Former
great player. Great teammate. Aaron Judge’s best buddy but he’s pretty much
done. Same as last year
Goldschmidt 2.1
Garcia Jr. by virtue of the two run shot to take the lead in
his debut and his league leading stats is at least an 8.5 until
further notice.
Ramos (6.5) for Dominguez (7.3 )
At first this looks like a downgrade. I don’t
know enough about Ramos because I’ve hadn't seen him play but based on what he’s
supposed to be able to do he gets the benefit of the doubt for now.
Dominguez had a pretty good AYGHAB. I believed, and still
believe, that the kid can hit.
Unfortunately for him there’s more to baseball then hitting.
Knowing how to slide for example. Taking good routes to the ball. Hitting the
cutoff man. You know… baseball
I’m glad they sent him down but I don’t expect him to get
better.
People say he’s only twenty-three and just needs more time
to develop. Bullshit. He was drafted and given five million bucks at sixteen
and so was identified as a potential star much
earlier.
He did nothing but play baseball for a decade with
processual coaching, training etc. and he STILL can’t hit the cutoff man
? Nah. Too bad they didn’t trade him when they had the
chance.
George Lombard Jr. (7.2) for Anthony Volpe (3.0)
Yes 7.2 is too high for a rookie who has only played two games. His REAL AYGHAB is actually only 6.6 but he gets the extra points because
I’m REALLY glad he’s at bat because it means that Volpe is not.
No further explanation needed.
So to conclude…
Prior To The Deadline
CF Grisham (4.8 Would be lower but he can be
clutch.)
1B Rice (8.1)
RF Dominquez 7.3
DH Goldschmidt 2.1
LF Jones (7.4)
2B Jazz (4.7)
SS Volpe (3.0)
3B Mc Mahon (2.4)
C Wells (3.2)
Total: 40.3 AVG 4.48
Which is why their offense sucked and was unwatchable.
Now
Grisham (4.8)
Rice (8.1)
Garcia Jr. (8.5)
Jones (7.4)
Ramos (6.5)
Jazz (4.7)
Lombard Jr. (7.2)
McMahon (2.4)
Wells (3.2)
Total 52.8 Avg 5.86.
Still not great but definitely better.
Add Cashman's failure to upgrade at Catcher and Third Base and it's easy to see why the offense or, more accurately, the lack of, is going to get them bounced early from the playoffs.
But, at least for now, they are more watchable. Kind of.
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Knicks in Five!
8 comments:
Beautiful Mind stuff, Doug.
👍🏼 💯 🖖🏼
Finally, analytics that make sense.
ugh
The numbers don't lie.
Fantastic analysis, Doug! If still depressing.
Knicks in Five!
You said it all, Doug. You were quite thorough, nothing for me to add.
Agreed, great post.
Yankees should subcontract their development work to another team. Perhaps the Brewers? Maybe the Dodgers! After all, the Dodgers languish at the bottom of the draft pool along with the Yankees, but they still have the 2nd best minor league system in the MLB. Yankees can't develop anything except hype and disappointment
Two, fire the PR department and don't rehire. Comparing kids to Mantle, etc. plays a large part in destroying their development.
Three, fire Cashman. He turns great, young prospects into mentally damaged goods, never develops into rounded players and is entirely responsible for everything.
Four, fire Boone and hire a real manager. The puppet show got old years ago.
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