The Slippery Slope

One of the ways I got through my career as a pipe fitter was to do trend analyses for the company.

Working with my hands and arms, simply wasn't going to make it, long term.  So I took out the text book on quantitative analysis and began reviewing formulas.

I won't bore you with the details, but when you want to get a sense of what is " happening," it is not enough to look at today's results, you have to look at, " what is in motion."

In the Yankee's case, one can easily be deceived if a static view is taken, and we simply compare 2017 YTD numbers to the equivalent performance of, "same store sales," ( the text book term ) of previous years.  Granted, it is tempting to do that, and the comparisons leave one with a far more positive feeling than my approach demonstrates.

What I focus on is trend data.  Where did we begin and where are we now?  What is the current pace of our acceleration, stagnancy, or decline?  How do those measures compare to " similar segments" of performance in this ( albeit young ) season?  How do those patterns compare to those of our competitors?

There is a ratio called ( in the pipe fitters game ) the " co-efficient of achievement," which allows one to read performance data of recent experience and compare them to the market, on a " moving average."  This is the key number, if only one performance measure can be tracked (due to time demands, usually)in any given industry.

Okay, enough with the boring textbook crap.

 Basically, the Yankees are on a precipitous decline, as measured by their (to-date) co-efficient of achievement ( calculated by random three game cycles over the course of the season ) , a performance that exceeds "normative standards" ( expected performance ) by well more than two standard deviations.  In other words, at the present moment, this team is repeating ( actually underperforming ) those patterns of play which described the failures of previous years.

Translation;  when this Yankee team gets behind early, the game is practically lost.  If the "surface number of deficit" reaches 2 runs or more ( the key performance indicator in baseball ) , the probability of loss exceeds 95%.  Last night, for example, once we were down 1-0 in the first
inning ( the timing of the deficit represents an exponential indicator of loss ), there was only a 63% probability that the Yankees could equal or exceed that total with the 27 at bats remaining to them.  The previous night, the trend showed a net neutrality until CC got hammered.  At that point, that late in the game (reflecting the exaggerated influence the timing factor ) the run deficit influence on the Yankee's probability to recover ( the recovery rate, actually ) became only 7.7 %, to be precise.

The problem I see is that this team has somehow fallen off the cliff.  Like a climber getting hit with a mud slide and disappearing over the edge of the mountain, losing much of the altitude he had previously achieved, and not being able to find proper footing to recover on that chosen route.

So, as Duque has pointed out, unless this team changes course, it's loss column will continue to grow at a faster rate than it's win column.  Worse, by the laws of probability, some other team in the AL East will do the opposite.  It is a zero sum game.

So those of you who are beginning to feel the same sense of hopelessness we felt in previous years, have got it right.  The illusion of the early season results are looking like a one time " pattern aberration."  In other words, we have to make some serious adjustments to our direction, or we are going to repeat the mediocre end results of the last several seasons.

Bloody Mary anyone?