Sunday, December 8, 2019

The top 5 assumptions threatening the Yankees this winter

1. That we can deal JA Happ for something, anything, that doesn't belong on on a Red Lobster menu. He's 37, he'll make $17 million next year, and he relies on his fastball. Yeesh. So, remind me, what was the attraction when we signed him last winter? 

Somehow, the Yankees have concocted a Narna-like, drug-flashback scenario where Happ is bundled with several dirt league prospects in exchange for a lawn mower that works. Really? Are we playing in a Strat-o-Matic league? After all was said and done last season, the guy didn't even warrant a playoff start. Would you trade for him?

2. That Gleyber Torres can play SS at the same level as 2B. Yes, we know he's a natural SS and - with DJ LeMahieu - a de factor team leader. But it's Gleyber - not Aaron Judge - who looms as the future face of the Yankees. Next year, he could become the best 2B in the game. (And LeMahieu could win another Gold Glove, this time at 1B.)  

But if Gleyber has defensive issues - let's say Luke Voit/Mike Ford cannot absolve him of a few bad throws - or if he falls into spring slump, the Yankees could face a SS "situation" by June. I still wonder why the brain trust didn't make Didi Gregorius a qualifying offer, though if it was to devote more cash toward Gerrit Cole, I'll buy it. But by moving Gleyber to SS, we are tampering with success. Some people think that's a bad idea.

3. That Gio Urshela will pick up right where he left off. Now and then, the Yankees find legitimate stars out of nowhere - I suppose Didi was the last one - and that's what Urshela represents. I still pinch myself. But there is a reason why the "sophomore slump" remains a vagary of baseball. One can argue that Urshela is beyond his second year - he's no rookie - and a solid 2020 would cement him as our 3B for at least the early 2020s. But if he slumps, well, what then? 

It's way too early to assume that Urshela is a .300 hitting Gold Glove 3B. The defense is there, but we must wait to see what we have this year.

4. That Masahiro Tanaka will be the same after surgery. Within hours of the Yankees' elimination - on Oct. 24 - Tanaka had bone spurs removed from his pitching elbow. The Yankees say it was minor surgery, that he'll be fine and that he won't miss any time, but let's not kid ourselves. About two years ago, Chance Adams had the same deal, and he's never been the same. (Granted, Adams remains an unproven commodity; I'm simply saying shit happens after somebody undergoes the knife.) Tanaka will be 31. 

5. That the Yankees will harvest the wave of young arms they added to their 40 man roster this winter. From the Rule 5 draft - and at the expense of Greg Bird and Nestor Cortes - they chose to add RHP Deivi García, RHP Luis Gil, RHP Brooks Kriske, RHP Luis Medina, RHP Nick Nelson and RHP Miguel Yajure, along with keeping the holdovers, RHP Albert Abreu, RHP Michael King, Jonathan Loaisiga and RHP Luis Cessa. Also, RHP Clarke Schmidt, a former first-round pick, is rising quickly. (He did not need to be protected, otherwise, they would have added him. That's 11 young arms, and you'd think that at least one will become an item. 

At least, that's the hope: That somebody will emerge, the way Domingo German did last year. If tradition has meaning, two to four will need Tommy John surgery, at least one will suffer control problems, one will hit his girlfriend, and two more will be packaged in a deal for somebody who all-too closely resembles J.A. Happ. 

In other words, it's early December, and let's take nothing for granted. 

12 comments:

ranger_lp said...

I'm concerned about Gio Urshela. Last year everyone was hitting a Super Ball. If they change the ball again, as in making a normal ball, Gio's production is bound to head south.

13bit said...

Is this offseason going to be "Lucy and the Football" and "Won't Get Fooled Again" or will it be "Happy Birthday?" Will it be "Yer Blues" or will it be "Begin the Beguine?" Do we bend over and enjoy it or do we scream for mercy? Who's going to take the hit, Hal's wallet or our butts? If Cole goes to California..."If you goooooooo to San Francisco, be sure to wear some flowers in your hair....."

Anonymous said...

Since you asked...

1) J.A. Happ

He pitched better down the stretch when he and Paxton decided to ignore Moobs and get back to what worked for them. So he's fixed.

Plus, he was absolutely killed by the superball. So a pct of his homers stay in the park this year.

The above is what the Yankees will be telling potential trade partners.

The truth is... Happ is both serviceable and overpaid.

As you wrote, the guy didn't warrant a play off start. So we pay his salary down to $12M from $17 and ship him off to teams that are on the lower side of making the WC play in game. To them a .500 pitcher is gold!

The 12M saved pays for Gardy (Sigh.)

2) Gleyber at SS.

I have to think that they know the truth in what you wrote, and that they will find another SS. This will enable DJ to return DJ to the "Super Utility Man" role that they envisioned last year but was blown up by injuries.

Talking about Gleyber as the starting SS seems like posturing to improve their negotiating or trading position.

3) I've got Urshala as a pumpkin. I hope I'm wrong. I suppose the Yankees can carry a "glove" guy given the relative strength of the offense. The problem is they have other potential pumpkins as well in Ford, Tauchman, and Gardner. Of the three Ford seems the least pumpkiny.

4) Tanaka

We've been waiting for his arm to fall off since day one. The guy's been great. If it falls off, it falls off, it's his last year under contract. I'm a fan.

5) Pitching Prospects

Good break down. Sounds about right.

Bonus Issue Not Addressed:

6) Center Fielder

We don't have one. Gardner is too old and really needs to go. Hicks is starting to feel like Greg Bird, Tauchman is a pumpkin, Florial is not now and will never be ready and is probably over-hyped trade bait.

Solution: Please, please, please get Starling Marte! I'm tellingyou he's the guy we want. Give up Florial or Tauchman and two of the pitchers listed in the post.

Doug K.



Anonymous said...

In case Cashman or one of his minions reads this blog (and you know they do even if it's while hiding in the executive bathroom)

I just went to https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

And traded Tauchamn, Johnny Lasagna, and Cessa for Marte and it came back as a fair trade value wise. You should totally do that.

Doug K.

JM said...

I agree with everything Duque raises here, and I've been worrying about all of the same things since they let Didi go away, even though he could be coming back. Who knows? The Shadow? The ghost of Billy Connors, Schenectady native, member of the 1954 Little League World Series Champions, 300-pound, chair-bound, prolific overeater and magical fixer of Dwight "Sniff" Gooden? Maybe no one. Not even the Royals, who my fingers insisted have hired Larry R, even when my brain knew he went to San Diego, where they have better all-you-can eat pasta buffets.

Not that I blame Connors for ballooning into his old age and expiration. I mean, he won the Little League World Series as a kid. It's like Orson Welles or Shelley Winters--you're good-looking when you're young and you bed people like Rita Hayworth and Marlon Brando, respectively, and what else is there? Foie gras on back bacon on triple-cream camembert. That's pretty much it.

However, I digress. The point is, we could get Cole and Strasburg and Cy Young and still not win or even get to the Series. That foie gras may never be ours. There are a myriad of decisions to be made, and I'm assuming, made badly by the Yankees braintrust and squinty number crunchers, any or all of which could doom the team no matter how great the starting staff is or how most excellently valuable DJ the Mahieu will be. Remember, we'll still be putting Sanchez out there almost every day, along with Stanton, along with a no-Superball Gio, along with a can't-pull Judge, and Gleyber at potentially shaky short. And whither Miggy? Gone, like Clint? Bats we can count on, lost to Sanchez and Stanton, the Terrible Twos?

We've got trouble, right here in New York City. With a capital T that rhymes with P that stands for Ptui.

And don't be surprised if we don't even win the division. Hal and Cash are masters of the fuck-up.

HoraceClarke66 said...

Brilliant post, JM! I was chortling, absolutely chortling, over the Welles/Shelly bit.

For my money, Mike King will be the pitcher to emerge.

And it's true: getting Cole doesn't guarantee anything. NOTHING guarantees anything. BUT...getting Cole would at least be a good-faith effort. It would at least be saying to we, the fans, 'We want you to spend ridiculous amounts of cash on our Yankees because it's the best team we could come up with.'

I would settle for that. But it's not going to happen.

ranger_lp said...

Yankees have a 7-year, $245M offer on the table for Gerrit Cole, per @BobKlap

ranger_lp said...

Peter Gammons has implied that Yanks will sign Cole...

TheWinWarblist said...

We're going to see the Radio City Rockettes today on my last day of vacation. I am disgustingly overbooked tomorrow and Tuesday. I cannot think about this. The Yankees are run by a bunch of scumbags all devoted to generating profits. Not championships and certainly not dynasties; profits. A foundational part of my entire life is askew, as confusing and frustrating as if my MD degree no longer allowed me to care for people or earn a good living.

TheWinWarblist said...

ranger_lp, Peter Gammon is THE Gammonite, may his New England tight-assed bowels finally gush out on Yawkey's Fucking Scabrous Way.

ranger_lp said...

@Winnie...I think Steven Cohen has changed how the Yanks think about signings...

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