The top 5 assumptions threatening the Yankees this winter

1. That we can deal JA Happ for something, anything, that doesn't belong on on a Red Lobster menu. He's 37, he'll make $17 million next year, and he relies on his fastball. Yeesh. So, remind me, what was the attraction when we signed him last winter? 

Somehow, the Yankees have concocted a Narna-like, drug-flashback scenario where Happ is bundled with several dirt league prospects in exchange for a lawn mower that works. Really? Are we playing in a Strat-o-Matic league? After all was said and done last season, the guy didn't even warrant a playoff start. Would you trade for him?

2. That Gleyber Torres can play SS at the same level as 2B. Yes, we know he's a natural SS and - with DJ LeMahieu - a de factor team leader. But it's Gleyber - not Aaron Judge - who looms as the future face of the Yankees. Next year, he could become the best 2B in the game. (And LeMahieu could win another Gold Glove, this time at 1B.)  

But if Gleyber has defensive issues - let's say Luke Voit/Mike Ford cannot absolve him of a few bad throws - or if he falls into spring slump, the Yankees could face a SS "situation" by June. I still wonder why the brain trust didn't make Didi Gregorius a qualifying offer, though if it was to devote more cash toward Gerrit Cole, I'll buy it. But by moving Gleyber to SS, we are tampering with success. Some people think that's a bad idea.

3. That Gio Urshela will pick up right where he left off. Now and then, the Yankees find legitimate stars out of nowhere - I suppose Didi was the last one - and that's what Urshela represents. I still pinch myself. But there is a reason why the "sophomore slump" remains a vagary of baseball. One can argue that Urshela is beyond his second year - he's no rookie - and a solid 2020 would cement him as our 3B for at least the early 2020s. But if he slumps, well, what then? 

It's way too early to assume that Urshela is a .300 hitting Gold Glove 3B. The defense is there, but we must wait to see what we have this year.

4. That Masahiro Tanaka will be the same after surgery. Within hours of the Yankees' elimination - on Oct. 24 - Tanaka had bone spurs removed from his pitching elbow. The Yankees say it was minor surgery, that he'll be fine and that he won't miss any time, but let's not kid ourselves. About two years ago, Chance Adams had the same deal, and he's never been the same. (Granted, Adams remains an unproven commodity; I'm simply saying shit happens after somebody undergoes the knife.) Tanaka will be 31. 

5. That the Yankees will harvest the wave of young arms they added to their 40 man roster this winter. From the Rule 5 draft - and at the expense of Greg Bird and Nestor Cortes - they chose to add RHP Deivi García, RHP Luis Gil, RHP Brooks Kriske, RHP Luis Medina, RHP Nick Nelson and RHP Miguel Yajure, along with keeping the holdovers, RHP Albert Abreu, RHP Michael King, Jonathan Loaisiga and RHP Luis Cessa. Also, RHP Clarke Schmidt, a former first-round pick, is rising quickly. (He did not need to be protected, otherwise, they would have added him. That's 11 young arms, and you'd think that at least one will become an item. 

At least, that's the hope: That somebody will emerge, the way Domingo German did last year. If tradition has meaning, two to four will need Tommy John surgery, at least one will suffer control problems, one will hit his girlfriend, and two more will be packaged in a deal for somebody who all-too closely resembles J.A. Happ. 

In other words, it's early December, and let's take nothing for granted.