Saturday, October 27, 2018

Dodgers in 7 (6 would be even better, but I'll take 7)

With all due respect to Doug K--who is the only one of us smart enough to live in the desert in what is easily the best state of the continental USA--I will repeat what I've said several times before. 

The Dodgers are going to win this World Series.

The Red Sox are not that good (sorry, Alphonso). The 108 wins were padded by domination of bad teams, which, yes, is a characteristic of teams that win pennants. That, in fact, is arguably how they won the division, going 67-21 against crapola clubs while the Yanks were 59-32. 

They were, however, third behind the Yankees and the Dodgers against teams .500 or better. Their 41-33 isn't terrible, but it's a more accurate assessment of the very beatable team the Dodgers (51-38 against .500 or better clubs) are playing against. (Interestingly, LA won the division on the back of their record against good teams, going only 41-33 vs. schlubs. Which says something about their chances for this Series.)

The Dodgers are a very good team, Joggy II aside. But I figured the Sox would likely win the first two games at Fenway, before losing all three in LA. After the way Cora's "all in" style backfired last night, and completely screwed up their chances for tonight (maybe tomorrow, too), that seems more than possible now.

Now, can the team from Brooklyn win a game in Boston? I think so. Yeah, the Sox have a great home record, but remember how much their stats are skewed by how many times they played teams like Baltimore. The silence of the Beanheads in the stands would be icing on the cake.


On a side note, my wife and I really liked Clay Bellinger, and it's great to see his kid nailing a Beanboob at the plate. Sure, he screwed up on base in the ninth. But in games like last night, when bumbles were in the air like midges, great plays stand out that much more.

Muncy is the feel-good story of the postseason so far. That grinding sound you hear is the gnashing of Billy Beane's teeth. I mean, the guy is so cheap, it's silly.

Dodgers in 7. I've been wrong before, but this time I really hope I'm not.

15 comments:

HoraceClarke66 said...

I agree that the Sox really don't have that much more talent than anybody else, John M., especially since Sale got hurt.

Really, they have Betts, they have Martinez (an almost certain juicer), and they have Benitendi.

I actually think this speaks well of them—they punch way above their weight—but it spoke all he more the Yankees' lack of heart that they could not come close to a team that they were pretty much equal to in talent.

John M said...

You know the line about the guy who was born on third base and thinks he hit a triple? I kind of think of the Sox that way. They're good, no doubt about that, but a lot of their confidence and their fans' arrogance is a little bit based on sand. They're Oriole-killers, sure, but beyond that they're just another good team. And I really think the Dodgers are just a bit better. Last night should have restored their confidence after the losses in Boston, and they may just realize that fact now.

It's subtle, but it could make a big difference.

Plus, the Sox can't rely on getting every close pitch and play called in their favor while in LA. The whiny little twerps.

Alphonso said...

John M....I hope you have just become our new voice of wisdom and insight.

As an orthographic concept ( from the Greek; "Orthos"---meaning, true, accurate, correct, and " Graphine "...meaning to write ), I can only hope you wrote the truth here.

The 18 inning loss by Boston last night is heartening.

Which desert, by the way? Mojave? Sonora? Sahara? Texas? New Mexico?

Publius said...

In the postgame interview Muncy was confident about tonight's starting pitcher. "We got Dick Mountain going for us." See Dick pitch. Go Dick go.

Anonymous said...

John M,

Thanks for the complement.

Alphonso - It was the Coachella Valley. I lived there for five years. I had to look up the desert because it was north and east of the Anza Borrego and south and west of the Mojave. Apparently it is the Sonora Desert which I did not know. So there's that.

My favorite thing about it was the sky. As a lot of us know, when you grow up in the NYC area the sky is pretty much a rectangle. I had a 150 square mile view. You could see weather coming in. Lightning went sideways across the mountains.

Living there provided me with a great drive to Vegas across the Mojave. My favorite was one I did in the middle of the night with no lights. Just the full moon. It was really something. Owls followed the car because the noise of the car was flushing the game for them.

But back to baseball. John M. I hope you're right. It's funny but I keep seeing the Yankee parallels. We also had more trouble with schlubs. And Muncy, if heard the story right, is their Voit. Or maybe I'm just trying to compensate for our collapse.

Doug K.

TheWinWarblist said...

Publius, it's like you called my name.

Anonymous said...

WISH IT WOULD HAPPEN JOHN M....

...BUT THERE'S NO SHOT....

EVEN IS L.A. WINS 3 AT HOME (WHICH I FEEL CERTAIN THEY WON'T)... BOSTON WON'T LOSE ANY GAMES AT HOME.

BOSTON FOR SURE, IN 5 OR 6.

TheWinWarblist said...

AAAAaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Ppppppppppppppppppppuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggg !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

TheWinWarblist said...

https://www.fangraphs.com/livewins.aspx?date=2018-10-27&team=Dodgers&dh=0&season=2018

TheWinWarblist said...

Love win expectancy.

TheWinWarblist said...

Why do the Dodgers have to suck like this?

TheWinWarblist said...

Dammit Dodgers you miserable fuckers ...

Ali Ahmad said...

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John M said...

I was wrong.

Why did they take out Hill? Even the Tweeter in Chief knew that was dumb.

Oh, well. So much for my predictive skills. Back to binge watching stuff on Amazon and Netflix.

ranger_lp said...

@John M...Hill told Roberts that he was pretty much done going into the 7th.