Monday, September 30, 2019

Realistically, how many times can we beat the Twins?

If you flip a coin five times, and they call come up heads, the odds on the sixth flip remain 50-50, right? Then again, what are the odds of flipping six heads in a row?

Heads or tails? Call it...

I have no idea what the odds say. I don't do math. I reject logic in all its forms.  I practice the juju sciences, the black arts of success, and the oldest calculations of survival known to humanity. 

Juju pre-dates the Dead Sea Scrolls, the Mayan Calendar, the Old Testament and even Demi Moore's memoirs, where she claims Ashton wanted a three-way on the freeway. And now, with the Twinkies of Minnesota coming to Gotham, we've won the last five coin flips, but what are the odds? Are they 50-50, or do we face the chances of going six for six? 

What I do know is this: Nothing lasts forever.

We saw it with the Curse of the Bambino. As Yankee fans, we witnessed the absolute worst thing that could ever possibly happen... happen. It crushed our souls. It destroyed our faith. It reversed the polarity of the earth, so that 15 years later, we are still battling to restore what once was considered normalcy: The Yankees as baseball's dominant franchise. Now, here comes Minnesota, the drunken stooge staggering home from the bar, his wallet hanging out of his back pocket, practically demanding to be mugged. But this time, could he be faking it? Could he be dead sober and packing heat, waiting for our ambush?

You don't beat a team forever. But over the next 10 days, here are some juju factors that do I believe: 

1. The Yankees have a better team. Not by much, but at full capacity, with Edwin Encarnacion, Giancarlo Stanton and Gary Sanchez in our lineup, I believe we have baseball's premier offense. That doesn't mean we'll win. But this isn't a case of having to beat a superior lineup. With everyone healthy, our team is unmatched.

2. The hideous five-day layoff helps us. The Yankees have staggered to the finish line, disinterested and tired. Nobody has been hitting. In fact, I don't recall a dead zone all year like the two-games in Tampa, where we nearly were no-hit. Five days of rest means a fresh start. In the case of Encarnacion, it might be the difference between playing and sitting. Overall, it's wrong to schedule four off-days before the playoffs. It almost rewards the wild card teams who stay sharp, while the division watch Netflix. Still, I'd rather be sleeping in our home beds for five days. And it's not as if the Yankees can cool off. At the end, they were ice cold. 

3. The great intangible is Luis Severino. If he's really back - (he sure didn't look it Saturday night) - the Yankees have a Game 2 ace, a shot in the arm unlike any other team. Severino could get six starts in October. It would be equivalent to his normal month of April. We cannot take for granted that he will be the pitcher he has been in the past. But this is no minor addition. This is a playoffs-changer. He could win six games. 

4. It's not juju, but karma that we must fear. After the fall of the Curse, following our colossal humiliation, Yankee fans can never again take anything for granted. We know that, eventually, Minnesota will beat us, and then probably win several playoffs in a row. We saw it long ago with Kansas City: We beat them and beat them and beat them... until we didn't. George Brett hit three home runs and sent us home. Every dog has its day. Minnesota's will come. The only question is whether we will be lucky enough to die before it happens.

That home field advantage sure would have been nice.

21 comments:

Celerino Sanchez said...


Twins in 4. Severino 6+ ERA in the post season when he was healthy. Paxton, do really trust him in a big game? Ottavino, Green & Kahle again do you trust these guys? Tanaka is the only guy I think can win. We'll score some runs, but Sanchez, Judge and Stanton will strike out at least twice in each game, but hey we won the division. Everyone should get a trophy and HOF Brian Cashman should get a lifetime achievement award for mediocrity.

JM said...

After the past week, I can't predict anything. The Yankees braintrust is fucking with Tanaka's head now, something they're so good at. The bats are cold, and not like Ichiro's refrigerated numbers--ours don't work. The fielding has become kind of sloppy (i.e., Torres and Sanchez, notably). This could be a disaster.

On the other hand, a few days of drinking Colt 45s and munching on pork rinds might do the boys good. It's all about where their heads are now. Do they regain their chemistry, or has the addition of Stanton and Sanchez and the demise of Voit destroyed that scrappy spirit that won them the division?

This shit is so tenuous. It drives me nuts.

13bit said...

We are not playing the team that got us here.

Ken of Brooklyn said...

Everything seems to be turned upside down> I'm profoundly uninspired by the current state of this Yankees team, and conversely/perversely, it seems every Mets fan is ecstatic over how they finished the season, full of promise, unicorns and moonbeams.

All of this could change in a heartbeat with a strong Yankee post season,,,, soooo, I will remain curled up in the fetal position until that time, hoping and preying to the Juju gods and goddesses for some kind of Yankee awakening.

I want to believe Scully, I want to believe!

Ken of Brooklyn said...

@13bit> Yes Yes YES!

The Ghost of Yankees Past said...

Here is one persons view of AL seatings:

1 Astro’s
2 Yankees, Twins, A’s
5 Rays

The Twins are due and the A’s have owned the Yankees. Let’s see who shows up Babe Ruth or Baby Huey. Anything is possible.

Rufus T. Firefly said...

Four days of fear. It's the Stephen King marathon.

ranger_lp said...

Maybe playing meaningful games will wake up this ballclub...

13bit said...

Please excuse me, folks, but I posted this on the wrong thread. I’m going to paste it here, then delete it from there.


I'm kind of over Judge. I will always like the guy - and I once thought he should be Captain - but I'm done with him now and have lost my soul and gotten ruthless. Trade Didi, Judge and Frazier ASAP. Get a pitcher. If Hal won't spend money, don't trade the farm, trade the big-league team. Keep the guys with heart, the ones who got us here this summer. We have plenty of gems to build around.

As for Duque's points.

1. We may nor may not have a better team than the Minnie Winnie's on any given day, but I would not hold up EE, Stanton and ICS as exemplars unless it was sarcasm. Whiff 1, Whiff 2 and Whiff 3 is more like it. Sanchez almost began to win me back by the end of this season, but I'm going to reserve judgement for another year or two. Stanton is an anchor around our necks, a foot on our throats, a stick up our collective ass. Worst acquisition ever, maybe even over A-Rod. I leave out Pavana and Igawa here because they just don't count. So, no, we don't necessarily have the best team. The best team at this time of year is the hot team.

2. The 5-day layoff will either save us or screw us. No in-between here. They went into it with all four propellors feathered and going into a nosedive. Let's see what five days off will do. They might all sit around and just THINK ABOUT SHIT for five days, in which case we are doomed. Billy Martin would have had them out on the field every day, throwing balls at each other's heads and crotches, then let them go drinking every night. What the fuck do I know, though? I just hope that our stellar hitting and pitching coaches are out there working with them every day, doing what they do best. hahahahahahahahahah!!!!!

3. Sevvy? Worst case scenario just happened. He looked good, sucked us in, then looked awful. Now, we can only suck our thumbs and wonder. MLB has ensured that German is a non-issue here. Still kind of fucked up how that happened, but I'll refrain from my theories. He could win six, Severino, or he could give up 15 runs. We'll find out, won't we?

4. I agree on this point. All things come to an end. And yes, that home field advantage would have been nice, but Boner was too busy resting guys to prepare them for the five days off. Everybody else sank into complacency because, hey, we won! And yes, Cashman has a lifetime sinecure, so this may be as good as it gets.

Food Stamps Hal? Where is he now? Does he give a shit? We all know the answer to that - Hal does not care. Say it again and again and again. It's the truth and it's why we're in the situation we're in.

Joe Formerlyof Brooklyn said...


Sunshine JFOB here. Allow me to point out the positives:

1. The Mets did not make the one-game play-in. So their fans are happy? They'd be much happier if someone stuffed each of their heads in the proper location. Which, coming to think of it, might just be where those useless craniums can be found these days.

2. The Orioles sucked big time. I've hated them for a long, long time. Showalter never found another job. I didn't hate him, except for when he managed to get his awful troops to pounce on the NYYs every year.

3. The Red Sox suck. Last year was a total fluke. Next year will be so bad, they will fire Cora. 2021 will be so bad, the inmates will burn down the city.

4. The Atlanta Braves look ripe for the plucking. You do know how "well" they did in the 1990s -- lots of divisional championships, ONE world series win (and a disgraceful failure to the NYYs in 1996 after winning games 1+2 in the Bronx!!!!).

5. The Dodgers are not as wonderful as their record suggests. Short of a horrible umpire ruling, the NYYs might have swept them in 2019 - IN LOS ANGELES. Bleep 'em, and after you put the baseball bat in, spin it sideways (what would you expect a guy from Brooklyn to say?).

BUT.....

I think there IS reason to fear the Astros. I am hoping the Rays get thru the play-in game and beat Houston. Methinks beating the Rays in clutch games would be easier then taking on the Astros starting rotation. This might yet work out!!!

HoraceClarke66 said...

Love your optimism, Joe FOB.

Turned to the Mets broadcast for a couple innings when I just couldn't stand anymore of yesterday's travesty.

On it, the Mets announcers were talking about how the "Seven Line Army is out in force today."

Uh-huh. For most of the stretch drive, when their team still had a shot, they were the Seven Line Lost Patrol.

Carl J. Weitz said...

The only way the Yankees beat the Astros is if both Cole and Verlander give up some home runs as the are inclined to do AND the Yankees are fortunate enough to match those two in pitching performance. Big if.

Also, the Mets fans are deluding themselves because their owners are even cheaper than Hal. They have Cespedes' contract again next year at almost 30 million. Between 2018 and 2019 he has played in just 38 games at the tune of 59 million! So between being screwed on that contract and another 96 million owed Joginson Cano for very diminishing returns over the next 4 years, they shouldn't expect Wilpon, et al to go after any decent free agent or trade for an expensive player. In short, in the near future, the Mets will get rid of any pending free agents that can expect to be paid fair value and with the exception of a few promising rookies and over-the-hill veterans, they will field a mostly Triple A ball club.

13bit said...

Forget the Astros. We need to get through the Twins. We need to win immediately. We lost the next few games and it's over. Let's see if these guys have it in them. These homer-happy mo-rons who can't pitch their way out of a paper bag. Let's see some real hitting and real pitching. I'll sit back and wait.

Carl J. Weitz said...

Yes 13 Bit, I put the cart before the horse.
Beating the Twins is no given since Stanton, Judge,Sanchez and possibly Encarnacion will be in the starting lineup. This is how we started the first 10 games of the year (with the exception of Mr Parrot) and were whiffing at a very alarming rate. If Voit makes the roster and starts at first, he is another that strikes out at a high clip. The Yankees need to be at the top of their game, firing on all cylinders to beat Minnesota this time.

By the way, what's the latest on the sports bar meet up?

Duque....will you be doing a live chat room again like in 2017?

13bit said...

I think we should wait on a meetup until the second round. For the Twins, we should probably just shiver, naked, in our respective foxholes, praying to the gods and trying to not let our testicles drag on the floor.

13bit said...

That being said, if anyone can think of a good venue not far from the Village and I'm in town, I'll definitely stop by. For the second round, if we reach it, we can make some memorial codpieces.

HoraceClarke66 said...

Should we try for Game 1 against the Twins, on Friday? The Village sounds fine.

HoraceClarke66 said...

And Carl, you're right about the Mets. The Wilpons' cheapness will always overwhelm them. They will probably let Wheeler go as a free agent before next year, and just hope everybody can pick up the lost wins.

13bit said...

I cannot guarantee I’ll be in town, as I have been trying to leave for two weeks and, if I do gain exit velocity, I’m going to go. With that being said, though, I will definitely come if I am in town.

Rufus T. Firefly said...

13bit,

The authorities have means of tracking your movements nowadays. Leaving town will not prevent the inevitable. You'll need contacts with iris scan imprints. I can lend you the Groucho glasses, but I will assure you, they are largely ineffective and worse - can draw unwanted attention.

Good luck, and let me know if you need a safe house.

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