Wednesday, October 2, 2019

Okay, so I was 17 games off in my spring prediction...

So... whadda I know?

Not much.

In fact, rather than blog, and give my ignorance away for free, I should sell my predictions to the highest bidder, who can bet the opposite of whatever I say. Bingo. 

I had the Yankees winning 85 games. (Alphonso had them at 81.) And in the above link, you can find everyone's predictions of March, and they're not pretty.

The combined wisdom of this blog foresaw 93 victories. But there were among sayers of sooth: Carl Weitz and Vampifella... take a bow.

You each predicted 104 wins. 

This is what Carl wrote: I'm probably the most optimistic of the group even though Steinbrenner is a foolish tightwad and Cashman is an obsessive moron. But I'm only sanguine about the number of wins because the Red Sox lost their closer, has a mediocre bullpen and won an odds-defying number of one-run games. Couple that with the Yankees improving their pitching, a bit on defense and their best hitters remaining healthy and having to improve over last year (I'm talking about Bird, Sanchez and Stanton). Couple that with 2/3 of the other teams tanking on purpose or otherwise just sucking and there you have the extra 4 game win total over last year.

Oh, and here's another prediction: I say the Tampa Rays take a big step backward and will be fighting Toronto for third/fourth place. They might not win 81 games.

One last thing: Cashman always claims that the reason he screws over his borderline MLB players such as Frazer and Wade, etc and shops on the scrap heap for worse players is because they "have experience" and signs them for insurance. Where is the Yankee's insurance for Cashman's incompetence?

As for Vamp: The last 5 weeks of play can make the strong teams like the Red Sox, Yanks and Astros go anywhere from 95-105 or higher. It all depends on how much the other teams are phoning in on their games against them. This year's last 5 is easy for the Yanks as they are almost all against teams trying to tank to be the worse, so I'm going with 104 because too many teams will simply hand them games at that point of the season.

I cannot determine who'll go to the WS though. Sox/Stros/Yanks all has about an equal chance. Sox always seems so overpowered but they also loose enough games against the Yanks as well. The Astros can win at any time as well. No one else I really consider a threat against the Yanks. A's/Rays/M's could win a spot just because everyone else is just so bad, but I don't see them being better than the Yanks by any means.

So, how many post-season victories do we predict? Eleven wins the brass ring.

Prediction to follow, but first, some random thoughts, based on last night:

Once again, pitching and defense will win this. That bodes well against Minnesota, with one exception: Giancarlo Clankton in left field. Thus far, he hasn't looked bad, but my recollections are that he remains a borderline DH, and Cameron Maybin deserves the shot. 

Two inning saves are always hell. As soon as Josh Hader started throwing fastballs into the bleachers, Milwaukee was in trouble... because it was only the eighth. I hope Aaron Boone takes notice: With the Yankees deep bullpen, there's no need to bring in Aroldis too soon. 

The week off helps the Wild Card winners. Years ago, the Wild Card was held ASAP, with each team's wear-and-tear on full display. But after last night, Nats will be on stilts when they see the Dodgers, who will spend the week on their Playstatons. The five-day break could ice down Houston. And that's what we must root for: Whichever AL Wild Card team succeeds, they must take the Astros in five. That's our best chance.

I predict six wins. Sorry.


Rufus T. Firefly said...

11 wins.

Average score 17-14. Several overtime games determined by kickers.

Either that or zero wins -- and no spectacular game ending catches. Average Yankee runs scored 1.5

JM said...

I don't remember how many wins I predicted, but it wasn't anywhere near this many.

Well, I was pretty good last year. Or was that 2017?

I can't predict baseball.

13bit said...

I predicted 87 wins on the season and I stand by it still.

104? Fake news. If you really think we won 104, you're actually promoting a coup d'erat.

As for the fake "post season," I'm not falling into that trap.

I'm already in Hot Stove League mode and waiting for Hal to finally start spending. I know it's going to happen this time. Lucy, will you please hold that football while I line up to kick it?


13bit said...

d'etat, motherfucker. spellcheck is the devil. auto-correct is the devil's goddaughter, and google maps is the devil's mother-in-law.

HoraceClarke66 said...

Exactly, 13bit! It's not only fake news, it's treason! Line those sports editors up against the wall! My 84 was the REAL number!

As for playoff wins, well, I guess I'm taking the very bottom: 0.

That's nothing, senator. My offer is nothing. In fact, I will consider it a personal favor if you pay for the gaming license. Or something like that.

HoraceClarke66 said...

Also, I want everyone to notes that I am already 1-0 in playoff series. I SAW that terrible relief pitching and botched play in right field coming!

Rufus T. Firefly said...


coup d'erat sounds like the food concessions taking over the stadium. I think it may have been Freudian.

As for your devils, remember that Bill Gates is the anti-christ, well before Google and MyInstaSpaceBook wanted all of your data, iris scans and DNA samples. The Zik-Zak corporation is next.

Anonymous said...

What kind of blogger posts such pessimism! Whats the point? To pat yourself on the back if they get swept and say "I told you so"? And then if they win to say, "I'm glad I was wrong!"?

Truth is, its not logical to expect a Twins sweep. They are below .500 against teams with a winning record, slaughtering the Tigers, ChiSox, and Royals, all void of much talent. They have only 2 starters. Their bullpen is inexperienced. Their home field attendance was 14th in baseball, so they don't get the same packed house pressure (or media pressure). The Yanks have depth up to their ears and the "injuries" only help them fill out a post season roster by making choices for them. The Yanks final road trip meant nothing and this time off benefits them. Their bullpen is STACKED. Sure the Twins could win the series. But suggesting a sweep is as much high horse BS as saying they would have only won 84 games this year.

I suggest to change your attitude. Be ALL IN. Don't watch the games with a feeling of impending doom. Rather, even if behind, expect they are not dead until the last out. Even if it means we need a big hit from Tyler Wade. Who cares...these are OUR GUYS. Live and die with them, not against them. Have fun and enjoy baseball and have HOPE they can even take on the Astros and succeed.

I feel sorry for you. I bet you didn't even enjoy 1996 expecting a Braves sweep too. With every Yankee post season win, you should be banished from the joy! After choosing a sweep, if the Yanks advance, you are not allowed to make another series prediction, because you didn't believe from the start!

Rufus T. Firefly said...

Newbie Anon,

Read Juju Rules. Then follow the site for more than 30 minutes. You'll get the idea.

Or your head will explode. Your choice.

13bit said...

Another humorless soul. Pity the motherfucker. He must be under 40 and still think life means something.

Carl J. Weitz said...

I have to admit that I was dead wrong on the Tampa Rays. They utilized the little that they had to the fullest. Our military should learn from them. Then we might be able to put a few hundred billion per year into better and more peaceful usage.

I think the Yankees will win 11 if the Astros are eliminated and 6 if they aren't. So my prediction is 6.

Rufus T. Firefly said...

On a happier note, today is Bucky Dent day.

Vampifella said...

I was so close to being right! Actually they should have had at least 106 but I think they purposely shrugged off the last 5 games as they didn't have much of a chance having a better winning record than the Astros. And they really wouldn't want to play a wild card team this year as both are better than the Twins, so it was a win-win for the Yanks.

Actually the Yanks will probably still win 104 for the YEAR by winning only one against the Twins. UGH!

Really though I think it's a coin flip chance of the Yanks or Twins. It's more a matter of luck than being good for both teams. I don't really see either team being better than the other when they are going to be smashing a least a dozen HRs out of the park for each game. Neither has a chance against the Astros though, so I've already given up on the Yanks for the season. I'm just hoping it's not going to be a total embarrassment.

I'm interested in seeing who here still moans about the Manny and Harper losses. I was so against both players as they just didn't seem all THAT good, especially for what they were asking. Their histories were too up and down and not consistently high enough like a Trout or Mookie to be worth the contracts they were asking. Yanks got lucky with so many rookies and scrap heap players that were producing just as well, so I think no one really cares about Manny and Harper now.

I do see now that we REALLY should have went out for some pitching though, something I thought that we needed back then but it would have completely cleaned out our already nearly cleaned out farm system. There is no way they'd break the bank for any more players, so it has to done be via trades now.

I too think we should ship out Frazier, Judge and whomever else to get pitching, but I don't think we'd find any takers for them. Pitching is worth a ton more than HR hitters with high strike outs right now. I can see Cole getting over $30 million a year from a crap team like the Padres because every team needs an ace so badly. The Yanks will probably have to give up 3 top players just to get a #3 starter.

HoraceClarke66 said...

Hey, wait a minute guys! Maybe we've been all wrong about this.

I think we should listen to what that Anonymous guy is saying! After all, his nom de plume is so fresh, so new...

I think he's really trying to tell us something. Everybody, gather 'round now (however metaphorically) and listen up. I think what he means is:





All you really need is heart!
When the odds are sayin' you'll never win
That's when the grin should start!

Take it away—anybody!

Anonymous said...

It's how we co-o-ope
We would all prefer to mo-o-ope
Juju demands we say
that we'll never win,
to gloat is a sin,
let's mope.

Doug K.

Retired Stratman said...

You gotta have skin
Yeah, you gotta have skin
Skin’s a thing that when you got it outside
It helps to hold your insides in

- Alan Sherman

Anonymous said...

First of all, I should read Juju rules, and if that's the case behind the "prediction", great. I hope it works.

Saying they'll get swept with this "juju" mentality, however, is just as juvenile as saying "gotta have heart".

Rufus T. Firefly said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Rufus T. Firefly said...

corrected copy:

Always look on the bright side of life.

Rufus T. Firefly said...

Juvenile is just a court.

Rufus T. Firefly said...


1996, I was at game 3 in Atlanta. It was glorious. The pitcher that day is now one of the announcers. Was also at the Bucky Dent game. Google will tell you who I am referring to.

What's your pedigree, sport? And do you feel it is sufficient to tell *us* how we are supposed to feel?

Next, you'll bring up sabr-onanism.

All this is because the site is on sportspyder and it must be on an rss feed to junior high schools.

HoraceClarke66 said...

I was at Game 1 and Game 6 in 1996. What a difference! Before Game 6, Yankees fans carried a coffin around the Stadium, chanting Fu-uck the Bra-aves!"


This ain't then.

Rufus T. Firefly said...

I knew they would win the series after they took game 3 in 1996. Atlanta fans were so discouraged after that game.

Fun fact -- the last baseball games at Fulton County Stadium. Jane Fonda Field was already built next door.

HoraceClarke66 said...

But it was Game 4 when they really blew it, losing that 6-0 lead. Terrible managing by Bobby Cox, choosing to pitch to Wade Boggs with the bases loaded...

Matt said...

George's Box latest podcast came out yesterday....listen to first 6 minutes and it mirrors my sentiment. you can feel any way you want about it and go ahead and preach "get off my lawn". I am pumped for this series either way.

I'm here as a pass along from being a devout river ave blues guy and i miss mike a lot. he passed on your site in his final entry as a way to get a yankee fix post blues. i've enjoyed the humor and the takes and was fuming a ton this season as well (not nearly as much as last year's most miserable 100 win team ever) but i'm leaving my own pessimism behind now that its post season. so reading the minnesota sweep got me going and trying to pass along some tacky as it is...not realizing the inside joke and not understanding why a yanks fan with a blog would go there. i've learned my lesson, not worth posting about it anymore.

I've played the juju game myself plenty of times. My guy was Pags mid 80's. I'd rag on him in a big spot....and then boom...he got a hit. It was like magic. There you go...I'm not a teenager.

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