Tuesday, November 20, 2018

It's Even Worse Than It Looks

All right, let's just assume that Dom Thompson-Williams and Erik Swanson had what looked like breakout years only because they were playing against younger and less experienced competition.

That has, alas, been the reason for all too many Yankee prospect "breakouts" for too many years.

And let's assume that the Yanks (for once) knew—after just 2 2/3 innings of major-league action!—that their No. 1 prospect and long proclaimed future staff anchor, Justus Sheffield, is really a washout.

That still wouldn't make this a good trade.

Speaking of breakouts, James Paxton has had all of one such season on the major-league level, his 12-5, 2.98 2017...in which he pitched all of 136 innings.

In 2018, despite his no-hit shutout and two complete games (both league leaders in these iron man days), Paxton's ERA shot up by almost a full run a game, to 3.76.

He did win 11 more games, but pitched only 160 innings because—as has happened pretty much every year he's pitched—he spent time on the DL. In the second half of 2018, he was just 3-2, 3.95, with only 8 starts.

Wait, it gets worse!

Even in his career-year 2017, Paxton managed to lead the AL in wild pitches, with 15 in those 136 innings.  That should match up well with you-know-who.

And then there's the advantage of Seattle's pitcher's park.

In 2018, Paxton had a 3.35 ERA at home—and 4.24 everywhere else.
Over his whole career: 2.98 in Seattle, 3.87 everywhere else.

So let's review.  Concerning our new pitcher:

—Never won more than 6 games in a season before 2017.
—Has only had one full season with an ERA below 3.00.
—Has never really pitched a full season due to constant injury problems.
—Has a tendency to throw wild pitches.
—Pitches much, much better at home than on the road.
—Is 30 years old, and last year was a big step backwards, finished off with an injury-filled second half.

Folks, it wasn't rocket science to top this one.  To get a pitcher at least as good as Paxton—and probably better—all we had to do was sign one of Corbin, Keuchel, Eovaldi, or Happ.

Sign two of the above, and we're miles ahead of this move.  And—oh yeah—WE DON'T GIVE UP ANYBODY.

This is at best a poor trade and an unnecessary one.  It is at worst one that will haunt us for many years to come.

Fire

Cashman

Now.







8 comments:

Anonymous said...

HOSS, HOSS, HOSS....

OMG, THE WILD PITCH STAT SCARES THE SHIT OUT OF ME. (WITH SANCHEZ)???

SHITTY NUMBERS ON THE ROAD TOO...

DL STINTS GALORE...

DOESN'T CASHMAN LOOK AT ALL THESE THINGS???

IT'S UNBELIEVABLE!

YET, THE MEDIA IS ALREADY CROWNING CASHMAN AS KING OF THE DEALS AGAIN!

HoraceClarke66 said...

I know, ALL-CAPS. It's incredible. This guy has a million caution signs all over him.

And it's not like he's the only thing out there.

Corbin had a better ERA last year, pitched more innings, and is younger. And wouldn't cost players.

Keuchel doesn't strike me as a good idea. But he's the same age, has won 20 games, has pitched in a World Series, and wouldn't cost players.

Eovaldi just finished torching us, is younger, and has pitched in a World Series. He's a big if—but he wouldn't cost players.

J.A. Happ is older, but...well, you get the picture.

Paxton is far and away the worst acquisition of all these, so why get him?

Why, because he WILL cost players...instead of risking any of Hal's money.

Oh.

Joe Formerlyof Brooklyn said...


According to his MLB.com page, Paxton was on the DL 2x in '18 and 3x in '17.

Add his injury-prone condition to:

Happ (if they sign him) is 36, CC Sabathia is frail (at the least) and well-used, Tanaka's physical condition seems shaky, Montgomery is coming back from surgery. And Severino seemed, in '18, unreliable.

Looks like Cashmoney's thinking is to go into the year with 7 or 8 starters. They can take turns rotating to the DL.

Re Sheffield: His 2017-18 minor league numbers show 214 innings (across 2 seasons) -- some DL trips for him, too. Plus 2 2/3 IP for NYYs last year. Underwhelming.

JM said...

This blows. Cashman sucks. I sense a theme developing here...

ranger_lp said...

Sounds like they gave up on Sheffield. Well, we did too. And we're lucky we got Paxton to show for it. But I'm confused, why don't the Yanks use metrics to decide which pitchers we're getting?

HoraceClarke66 said...

I know, Joe, and I'm not saying that Sheffield will live up to his potential. But less than 3 major-league innings seems like an awfully small sample size.

Since the Yanks can never seem to develop anyone, I guess this makes a certain, weird sense. Or that is, it would, if they had not picked up a chronically injured veteran!

TheWinWarblist said...

Fuck, I'd have an ERA under 5.00 if I pitched my home games in that cavern in Seattle. I thought ballpark effects were something the statheads understood?

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