Monday, January 28, 2019

Will this be the year the ice cracks beneath Yankee trades of prospects?

For the first time in my memory, the Yankees recently were shut out of Baseball America's Top 100 prospects list. Now, my memory isn't what it used to be, but somehow, even in the lean years of "Brawlin'" Brien Taylor, Jesus "Ice Cream Sandwich" Montero and Ruben "Sticky-Fingers" Rivera, we always landed somebody in the Top 100. This year, we got nada, zip, zilch... purple asparagus. 

There are good cop/bad cop arguments behind this. Several prospects have graduated to the Show. And several went in trades last summer. We didn't win, and they're gone... purple asparagus.

Five takeaways on the current farm situation:

1. It's only a matter of time before somebody we traded becomes a star. Brace yourselves, people: We're going to experience a new Doug Drabek, a Jay Buhner, a Willie McGee. When that happens, the full flaming pimple of the last two trade deadlines will explode.

It will be easy to blame Brian "Cooperstown" Cashman, but our owner's demand to avoid luxury taxes remains at the root of the problem. Even last July, when Boston was running away from the AL East, Food Stamps Hal Steinbrenner imposed nickel-dime austerity on the Yankee budget. And saddest of all, the NYC sports media basically accepted this without question. All the Gammonites wanted to do was blame Jacoby Ellsbury for signing a good contract and feeding his family. 

In 2019, two ex-Yankee prospects look ready to haunt us. Pitcher Taylor Widener has become the No. 1 or No. 2 Diamondbacks prospect. (We traded him for Brandon Drury.) And Justus Sheffield is the consensus top Mariners stud pitcher. (He brought us James Paxton.) So buckle up, especially if Paxton's elbow barks and Sheffield soars. Things could get nasty... fast.

2. We are a lower-tier farm system, and the situation might be more dire than we think. Most of the Yankees current top prospects are a) really young pitchers and b) way down in Single A. In the Top Ten of Pinstriped Prospects, eight are in the low minors and only two - Jonathan Loaisiga and Michael King - are remotely ready for the majors. In modern times, young arms are a fragile commodity. (Loaisiga has shoulder issues.) By the end of the year, it's almost a certainty that a handful of these pitchers will be out with Tommy John surgery. I mean, bet the farm on this: Several will be gone.

The Yankees do have some five-tool studs way way down in the rookie leagues. But that far away, everybody looks like a future star. And it speaks volumes that our current top prospect, Estevan Florial, had a terrible, miserable, rotten 2018... and yet rose in our rankings. Ouch.

3. The big international spending splurge of 2014 - when the Yankees showered millions upon about two dozen Latino 16-year-olds - looks like a dud. The best from the class is probably Dermis Garcia, who is a) continually repeating Class A, b) strikes out way too much, c) has no clear defensive position, and d) might be converted into a pitcher. His home runs travel great distances; unfortunately, they still only count as one. The others from the class seem to be stuck in the dirt. 

Moral of the story: This may be what happens when you make a 16-year-old a millionaire. 

4. This looks like a make or break year for our re-invigorated farm system. In 2019, the Yankees must render a final verdict on Greg Bird, Gary Sanchez, Luis Severino, Clint Frazier, Gleyber Torres and even Miguel Andujar - the "Baby Bombers" from the the 2016 tanking and rebuilding era. At one point, we were ranked first or second in the majors. 

The reality is that none of these players remains a sure thing - a Core Four player. We have one star: Aaron Judge. That's not nothin.' But this is the year of final verdicts, especially on Bird and Sanchez.

5. At the deadline this July, we will probably keep trading prospects. We will have no choice.

The recent Sonny Gray deal holds interesting implications. We dealt Funny Sonny for an excellent, MLB-ready 2B prospect and a sandwich round draft pick... then we dealt the 2B for a Single A outfielder, farther removed from the majors. 

Why such churning of prospects? It allowed us to keep a spot open on the 40-man roster. 

Come July, we will probably have a glut of these young players, whom Cashman will be looking to trade. His rationale: We either trade them or lose them next winter in the Rule 5 draft. The Yankees are converting their farm system into a clearing house of talent for trades. Will this work? Fuck if I know. But this I do know: Sooner or later, we're going to get really burned. The ice is getting thin. 

29 comments:

13bit said...

Has Cashman's system worked for the past ten years? That's the question to ask, not "will" it work?

If Billy Beane's system is called "Moneyball," then what is the name of Brian's method?

el duque said...

Hal-Ball.

Mediasavvy said...

The first half of the Sonny trade looked pretty good. But flipping Shed Long for Josh Stowers? That made no sense, except that Stowers doesn't require a spot on the 40 man roster.

I thought you traded up for talent, the further from MLB-ready they are. Apparently not.

Alphonso said...

I think we can firmly admit...if we were a country, we'd be Venezuela.

The 2019 season is already over.

Boring, frustrating, and unproductive.

One poorly timed strike out by Giancarlo and we drop the play-in game and go home really early.

To read about our single A prospects.

And dream of more stupid moves, and non moves by the pretend team of Hal and Cash.

Anonymous said...

It's not so much the emptying of the farm. It is what was to supposed to happen in conjunction.

It doesn't matter that the Yankees trade upside in Sheffield for better results now (hopefully) in Paxton, if you add Corbin as well.

It doesn't matter that the middle infield minor league cupboard is bare for the next 4-5 years if you add Machado.

And it doesn't matter that you trade all your OF prospects that are close to ML ready. (Cave, McKinney, Etc.) for whatever if you add Harper.

But they didn't.

So now they have no one and got no one. It's like they had a plan and then quit in the middle. Swish it or bank it but if you don't commit the ball bounces off the back of the rim.

The off season isn't over and I really hope we are playing an elaborate game of Collusion Chicken TM). Because if we are not then this is a rudderless ship driven not by Jeep, but by the Cheap and the Clueless and that is a bad name for a soap opera and a worse way to run a ball club.

Doug K.

KD said...

The Hot Stove is not over The Hot Stove is not over The Hot Stove is not over The Hot Stove is not over The Hot Stove is not over The Hot Stove is not over The Hot Stove is not over The Hot Stove is not over The Hot Stove is not over The Hot Stove is not over The Hot Stove is not over The Hot Stove is not over The Hot Stove is not over The Hot Stove is not over The Hot Stove is not over The Hot Stove is not over The Hot Stove is not over The Hot Stove is not over The Hot Stove is not over The Hot Stove is not over

I am now trying to speak Harper into pinstripes. My management juju expires on Wednesday as the juju gods will not grant me an extension, despite my begging and offer to share a stunning array of high grade California medications. for the best, I suppose. my few remaining functional brain cells need a break. that plus my juju is not nearly as powerful as the clasp on Hal's change purse.

HoraceClarke66 said...

Amen, Duque!

First off, if any of the Gammonites were actually paying attention they would be ripping Coops for his constant mismanagement of the 40-man roster.

Even a cursory look at it over the years reveals some terrible decision making. People like Higgy, our plucky, lovable, hitting-challenged, third-string catcher, or very marginal pitchers such as Luis Cessa, are kept on it over much better prospects.

Really, Coops? You don't think you'll be able to pick up a catcher capable of hitting .133, if worse comes to worse?

Shed Long was far from a sure thing, but he could become a useful major-league player. Joeh Stowers is unlikely to get past Single-A. He's simply there as a smokescreen, to keep the fans from realizing that this was a terrible, botched trading approach.

The Hal Handicap notwithstanding, this was a grievous, unforced error by Coops.

HoraceClarke66 said...

Second, it's time for Coops to look in the mirror and admit that his "sign 'em all and let God sort 'em out" approach to 16-year-olds in the DR is a waste of time and money.

Back in junior high and high school, as the student manager on our baseball team, I watched every game our team played for six years. Nobody on our nine or the squads of the other 13 teams in the league—comprising a large chunk of northern Massachusetts—ever came close to making the major leagues.

I realize that the players in the DR are infinitely better But it's also true that you don't know what you're getting.

Are they really 16? Are they roiding? And even if they're exactly as advertised, how in the world can you tell if 16-tear-olds are going to become major-league ballplayers? Even to the very limited degree that you can tell 18- or 21-year-olds will become major leaguers?

HoraceClarke66 said...

Third, the very real problem with the Yankees that nobody is addressing is that almost EVERYONE, in the minors and in the show, went backwards in 2018. Or got injured.

This reflects a massive system fail in developing, training, and recognizing talent. But none of the Gammonites or the Yankees front office even seem aware of the problem.

Instead, we are told periodically that the road to becoming a start is often an uneven one. Well, so is the road to being a has-been by 25.

HoraceClarke66 said...

Finally, Doug K. makes an excellent point that the Yankees COULD have used this year's unique crop of free agents to get past the massive system failures.

They failed to do so—and it's not the first time.

Just a few years ago, when the cosmic superpowers of the Core of Four finally started to weaken, the Yanks COULD have used the more lax rules about foreign free-agents signings at the time to patch up the team until they could go younger.

I'm talking about guys like Jose Abreu, the original Aroldis Chapman, Cespedes, Yasiel Puig, Yu Darvish, and others.

None of them proved to be superstars, but they put in some very nice years between them—and we didn't even consider them.

Hal Disease has actually been coursing through the Yankees' blood for some time now. And it's abetted by Coops' silly choices as well.

Why, for instance, was there zero interest in signing Johnny Damon in 2002, David Ortiz in 2003, Beltran in 2005—when he was offering the Yanks a bloody discount, for cryin' out loud?

Coops likes to sit there and rather imperiously dismiss all such ideas as mucking up his grand plan. Well, guess what? There is no plan!

JM said...

Have we hit maximum stupid yet? I feel we still have a way to go.

Carl J. Weitz said...

Horace.....going to high school in northern MA and you're a Yankee fan??? The only logical scenario I could come up for this is that you lived in the NY tri-state area but went to a prep school like Phillips or Deerfield. Yes?

I'm Bill White said...

Yankee-Blue-Ball

KD said...

John, we have a way to go because...... The Hot Stove is not over!!!! It's not! Harper in Left!! C'mon, Coops. Show us what you got!!

TheWinWarblist said...

My hours have been long of late. Be aware I read every post and comment. I am hear, cursing and shouting at the colossal, pus-filled, miserable excuses for cum-stains in the front office. Plan for "Food Stamps Hal" graffiti all over the Bronx. We threw loose change to Reggie when he made a good play in the field. Hal should get no less merciless attention.



FUCCKERS!! OF DISEASED PIGS, BITTY; DISEASED PIG FUCCKERS!!

TheWinWarblist said...

Here, not "hear." Of course.



DISEASED PIG FUCKERS!!!!

13bit said...

Love you, Winnie.

Love Hal-Ball, Yankee Blue Ball and Bullshit Ball

This year we must all go to a game. There’s nothing at stake with these idiots, so you know we’ll just have fun.

HoraceClarke66 said...

Carl Weitz, I'm sure I've bored everyone else here with the tale of my hejira, but I was born in Jersey, and became a Yankees fan there when they hit rock bottom in 1966.

Then, near the end of the "Impossible Dream" summer of 1967, we moved to a small town in Massachusetts. Which was great. I loved everything about it...except for the Red Sox. And the Celtics. And the Bruins. (The Patriots, in those days, were still a nonentity.)

I went to a small public school, which I also loved. (Though our outmanned sports teams lost in pretty much everything except soccer, which nobody played then.) No prep school, thank the Good Lord.

But the year I left for college—1976—was when the Yankees suddenly got good again. Arrgh.

Actually, I have to admit that all those Boston fans weren't really too bad to me. It helped that the Sox always seemed to fall short then, too. We could bond in our mutual hatred of the Orioles.

It was great getting to Fenway and the old Boston Garden. Very fun arenas. And I still like getting back to that part of the world. Just less and less during baseball season...

Carl J. Weitz said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Carl J. Weitz said...

Yes, the old Boston Garden with the pillars right in front of many seats.

Horace, thanks for the explanation. Sounds like a nice family story. I know MA fairly well and it's a very nice area. I love Boston....just not the teams. My son is a huge Yankee fan but he's up at Fenway all the time taking clients to Fenway because he works for Boston Beer Company, aka Sam Adams/Twisted Tea/Angry Orchard and they have a huge pavillion in right field as the new corporate beer sponsor. I've been to Fenway enough times so I don't need to join him while he's schmoozing customers.

I had a similar experience growing up on the Jersey shore until 16 as a rabid Yankee, Giants, Rangers and to some extent Knicks fan. Then my family moved to CT in Fairfield County and suddenly I was among some of the enemy. But not many as southwestern CT is in the NYC market area . Still, it was change.

Again, thanks for the story. I've been reading the blog for about 4 years and don't know most of the regular commenters bios perhaps as well as many others here.

ranger_lp said...

YO!

I got your analytics right here...

Yanks are just fine. They won 100 games somehow last year.

Here's what they are thinking...last year Pickles Gray, Domingo German, Luis Cesspool and Loretta Lynn started 51 games. How many games did they win? 11. Eleven. Once.

With the pitching subtractions and additions, they figure we gain 10 more easily...110 wins. Don't need anything else.

JM said...

And we lose in the playoffs. Success!

ranger_lp said...

@John...at least we lose @home with home field advantage...

Anonymous said...


Another day in purgatory. To change it up a little bit I offer…

Yankee Quiz #1

1) The Yankees as presently constructed do not have a Left-Handed hitter of note, if at all. Can you name a really good one that they should sign? Hint: He has the same name as the profession of the guy that works for St. Peter and hands out the musical instruments in heaven.

2) In the Melville classic Moby Dick, Moby is not the only whale that is hunted down. At one-point Captain Ahab’s crew comes upon a large female whale. They ask the Captain what method they should use to kill it. His reply is also the name of a 26-Year-old free agent outfielder who the Yankees really need to sign. Can you name the command?

3) My soon to be ex-wife can be relentless when she has a point. She will say the same thing on the same subject over and over and over. My way of describing her is also the last name of a bonified superstar FA that the Yankees for some reason refuse to sign. Can you name the word and the player?

Here's one more...

Bonus Question:

Some say that William Shakespeare was not only the greatest writer of all time but a HUGE NY Yankee Fan. One of his play titles contains a hint to Yankee management about the name a free agent they should sign. Do you know the title of the play and the player?

Doug K.

Anonymous said...

"If Billy Beane's system is called "Moneyball," then what is the name of Brian's method?"

"Pretendyouhavenomoneyball"

Doug K.

HoraceClarke66 said...

Damn, these are brain twisters, Doug K.!

Apart from all questions of money or longevity, it does amaze me that the Yanks think they can go into this season without a significant left-handed bat.

Meawnhile, the internet was crawling with trade rumors yesterday of a deal for another starter. Heaven help us all.

Retired Stratman said...

Machado About Nothing?

Anonymous said...

We have a winner!

Doug K.

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