Will this be the year the ice cracks beneath Yankee trades of prospects?

For the first time in my memory, the Yankees recently were shut out of Baseball America's Top 100 prospects list. Now, my memory isn't what it used to be, but somehow, even in the lean years of "Brawlin'" Brien Taylor, Jesus "Ice Cream Sandwich" Montero and Ruben "Sticky-Fingers" Rivera, we always landed somebody in the Top 100. This year, we got nada, zip, zilch... purple asparagus. 

There are good cop/bad cop arguments behind this. Several prospects have graduated to the Show. And several went in trades last summer. We didn't win, and they're gone... purple asparagus.

Five takeaways on the current farm situation:

1. It's only a matter of time before somebody we traded becomes a star. Brace yourselves, people: We're going to experience a new Doug Drabek, a Jay Buhner, a Willie McGee. When that happens, the full flaming pimple of the last two trade deadlines will explode.

It will be easy to blame Brian "Cooperstown" Cashman, but our owner's demand to avoid luxury taxes remains at the root of the problem. Even last July, when Boston was running away from the AL East, Food Stamps Hal Steinbrenner imposed nickel-dime austerity on the Yankee budget. And saddest of all, the NYC sports media basically accepted this without question. All the Gammonites wanted to do was blame Jacoby Ellsbury for signing a good contract and feeding his family. 

In 2019, two ex-Yankee prospects look ready to haunt us. Pitcher Taylor Widener has become the No. 1 or No. 2 Diamondbacks prospect. (We traded him for Brandon Drury.) And Justus Sheffield is the consensus top Mariners stud pitcher. (He brought us James Paxton.) So buckle up, especially if Paxton's elbow barks and Sheffield soars. Things could get nasty... fast.

2. We are a lower-tier farm system, and the situation might be more dire than we think. Most of the Yankees current top prospects are a) really young pitchers and b) way down in Single A. In the Top Ten of Pinstriped Prospects, eight are in the low minors and only two - Jonathan Loaisiga and Michael King - are remotely ready for the majors. In modern times, young arms are a fragile commodity. (Loaisiga has shoulder issues.) By the end of the year, it's almost a certainty that a handful of these pitchers will be out with Tommy John surgery. I mean, bet the farm on this: Several will be gone.

The Yankees do have some five-tool studs way way down in the rookie leagues. But that far away, everybody looks like a future star. And it speaks volumes that our current top prospect, Estevan Florial, had a terrible, miserable, rotten 2018... and yet rose in our rankings. Ouch.

3. The big international spending splurge of 2014 - when the Yankees showered millions upon about two dozen Latino 16-year-olds - looks like a dud. The best from the class is probably Dermis Garcia, who is a) continually repeating Class A, b) strikes out way too much, c) has no clear defensive position, and d) might be converted into a pitcher. His home runs travel great distances; unfortunately, they still only count as one. The others from the class seem to be stuck in the dirt. 

Moral of the story: This may be what happens when you make a 16-year-old a millionaire. 

4. This looks like a make or break year for our re-invigorated farm system. In 2019, the Yankees must render a final verdict on Greg Bird, Gary Sanchez, Luis Severino, Clint Frazier, Gleyber Torres and even Miguel Andujar - the "Baby Bombers" from the the 2016 tanking and rebuilding era. At one point, we were ranked first or second in the majors. 

The reality is that none of these players remains a sure thing - a Core Four player. We have one star: Aaron Judge. That's not nothin.' But this is the year of final verdicts, especially on Bird and Sanchez.

5. At the deadline this July, we will probably keep trading prospects. We will have no choice.

The recent Sonny Gray deal holds interesting implications. We dealt Funny Sonny for an excellent, MLB-ready 2B prospect and a sandwich round draft pick... then we dealt the 2B for a Single A outfielder, farther removed from the majors. 

Why such churning of prospects? It allowed us to keep a spot open on the 40-man roster. 

Come July, we will probably have a glut of these young players, whom Cashman will be looking to trade. His rationale: We either trade them or lose them next winter in the Rule 5 draft. The Yankees are converting their farm system into a clearing house of talent for trades. Will this work? Fuck if I know. But this I do know: Sooner or later, we're going to get really burned. The ice is getting thin.