In the oxygenated air of 1st place - 34 games over .500 - it's difficult to go full Chicken Little on any team. You have to work at it. Today, the Death Barge leads 2nd-place Toronto by 10 games in the loss column, with only 56 to go. We could slide into on a lengthy, Stump Merrill-level losing streak - (as opposed to our current knock-kneed slog)- and the BJs would still need to win at a ridiculous pace. Frankly, they're not that good. The Yankees are nearly assured a spot in the postseason. Unfortunately, after Oct. 1, assurances mean nothing.
In fact, out October prospects look rather bleak. Here's why:
1. Geritt Cole is not the "Big Game" ace we wanted. Listen, he's a great teammate, a quality starter, a jolly-good fellow. But he's not Scherzer. He's not Verlander. He's not Kershaw. He's somewhere in the Twilight Zone between Masahiro Tanaka and Jimmy Key, (for you effete cultural snobs, between Selena Gomez and Lana Del Rey.) He could rectify that with a superhuman, Bumgarnerian October. But thus far, in marquee confrontations, he usually flops.
He did yesterday, as he recently flopped in Baltimore, in Fenway and against Cincinnati. As he did in last year's wild card, and the year before that. Any postseason series start with Cole, with or without that sinking sense that his greatest moments came in Houston, and that's Chinatown, Jake.
2. Watching our bullpen collapse has been like observing the plug being pulled on your neighbor's respirator. Sure, Clay Holmes was great, but his last few outings have been Tanyan Sturtze terrifying. Aroldis will never again be the intimidating force of 2015. In any moment, a walk or a bloop single can fling El Chapo off the rails. There is no such thing as a safe lead, and that shall be the reality of our autumn.
3. Our farm system has been sucked dry from the last two trade deadlines. We have no young arms set to join this team in September and make an impact. We traded them. In fact, for the second year in a row, we have no position players coming up. Here are the stats from Scranton. 
I direct your attention to Estevan Florial, who not long ago was being relentlessly hyped by the Yankee/YES bullshit machinery. That he has not received a shot at the majors is sort of sad, sort of outrageous - considering the play of Joey Gallo and Aaron Hicks. Clearly, somebody within the brain trust has ruled that Florial cannot hit MLB pitching. Maybe they're right; I dunno. It just seems like any other team would have given the guy a chance by now - especially when the alternatives are struggling to beat Mendoza.
These frugal Yankees - who button up their purse whenever a free agent comes knocking - seek to squeeze every last penny from those who've been given massive contracts, even when young alternatives are available. Basically, we have a General Manager who never wants to admit he was wrong.
4. Which brings us to Cashman and Das Boot. You know what's weird? I'll take shit for this, but I've come to like Cashman. He's 55, he's wily, he needs a hairpiece, and he has now run the Yankees for 24 fucking seasons. To young generations, he embodies the Yankees.
But we've now gone 12 years without a world series, and before 2009 - our last championship - we went 8 without squat. Cash's greatest success was inherited from Gene Michael and Bob Watson, who built Joe Torre's teams of the 1990s.
Cashman's skill has been to survive at the helm of what was once the most volatile franchise in baseball. In so many ways, the Yankees are his team - not Hal Steinbrenner's, not Aaron Boones. (And I think both men like that.)
But come October, if the Yankees flub another one, I'm not sure Cashman returns in 2023. The fans will simply go ballistic. It'll be a Jan. 6 insurrection. There's something in that oxygenated air that's more explosive than in the past. We have expectations now. There is no second place.
Which brings me, finally, to Das Boot - aka Harrison Bader. By all accounts, he's an elite CF, a terror on the base paths, a joy to humanity. He's also a tripwire for Yank fans, based on a phrase that annually haunts us: "Sometime in September." Excuse me, but haven't we heard that one before? Severino? Pavano? Chapman? Stanton? Sometime in September.
They say Bader is wearing a boot. He has Plantar Fascitis - one of the worst maladies in sports. If he returns in September, that's just enough time for a "Welcome to New York" slump, in front of a hungry, angry, rage-filled fan base. I can think of nothing worse.
I'm sorry, folks. We should be much more hopeful than this. But the state of the Yankiverse is in turmoil. It's Cashman's team, and he cannot afford another failure. And right now, who among us thinks we're on a course to greatness? Talk me out of it. Please.
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23 comments:
Florial. Sigh...
Remember gm 7 of 2019 World Series? Astros, up a run or two late against Nats, didn't even warm Cole up. He sat there in the bullpen with a 1000 yard stare, the camera picking him up every few pitches, as Astros pen blew it. What gives, a few of us wondered? I think we know now what Houston knew then. He doesn't have it in him.
Miggy DNP in Scranton yesterday, btw.
And regarding catastrophic off season scenarios that should lead to the end of the Cashman era, don't forget this doozy: Aaron Judge to the San Francisco Giants.
Duque, I usually agree with you on everything. I respectfully disagree, though, on Cashman's future if we lose again. "When" we lose again.
He is assured of his job no matter what happens. My hopes for his departure were totally broken a while back. No matter what he does or does not do, he'll be here.
Because Hal...
You know how this ends.
He serves at Hal's whim and Hal doesn't care. Brian is his buffer with the world.
Yankees First Half Record
58-23 (.716)
Yankees Second Half Record (so far)
12-13 (.480)
As a team, the Yankees have hit .266/.360/.498 (.858 OPS) and scored 162 runs in the second half, the most in baseball (by a large margin).
I know there are certain guys struggling at the plate (Donaldson, Benintendi), but the lineup has not been the problem.
It's the starting rotation.
Gerrit Cole (4.97 ERA in 6 GS)
Jameson Taillon (5.18 ERA in 5 GS)
Jordan Montgomery (5.55 ERA in 5 GS)
Nestor Cortes (2.91 in 4 GS)
Luis Severino (4.50 ERA in 2 GS)
Domingo German (6.39 ERA in 3 GS)
Here's the thing I've noticed:
In the first half, the Yankees pitching staff was one of the best at suppressing home runs.
In the second half, the Yankees pitching staff has been one of the worst at suppressing home runs.
April: 0.66 HR/9 (4th)
May: 0.87 HR/9 (5th)
June: 0.99 HR/9 (7th)
July: 1.28 HR/9 (25th)
As soon as it got hot, we started coughing up the home run ball.
So the question: Was July (and August's 8 HR in 3 games) a blip or a course correction?
Can’t talk you out of the truth, Duque, sorry.
I think you're onto something, ZA. Post-game, Cole and Higgy both talked about crafting their game plan, which seemed to include a lot of secondary stuff early. That may have been a reaction to their observation that opponents have been sitting fastball against them lately, and hitting a lot of homers. Obviously didn't work yesterday early. Seattle bombed Cole's secondary stuff. Assuming Cole/Higgy analysis was right, why pitching backwards didn't work is an interesting question. Poor execution is always likeliest explanation. But it's fun to consider that maybe Cole was tipping. Anyway, the Yanks are a mess right now. Morale and self-confidence seem to be wavering post Bader/Monty. Certainly among the fan base, and maybe in the clubhouse too.
Definitely in the clubhouse as well.
You could see it on the player's faces.
As I previously joked - Judge's lower body issues were also trying to play through the Monty trade Tuesday night.
Seemed out of sorts a bit at the plate. Then he was given yesterday off in a key start against Seattle with Castillo on the mound.
Now you just can't help but wonder if Judge really still wants to stick around - regardless of the Cash or the . . . CA$H.
If Zachary's stats are correct - and I have no reason to believe otherwise - we should all start praying for snow. In September.
Remember the halcyon days of last year's 13- game winning streak?
Remember what happened AFTER that?
Multiply that by ten and you'll have some idea how the rest of the season will play out.
We are fucked.
I believe someone already mentioned this, but it's worth repeating:
Montas pitched to a 2.36 ERA in Oakland’s spacious RingCentral Coliseum, and 5.01 everywhere else.
You know who had similar splits when he was imported from Oakland to New York in 2017? Sonny Gray.
Be afraid. Be very afraid.
The Intern has done it again.
After yesterday Cole has a higher 2022 ERA than Montgomery, 3.70 to 3.69.
Somebody should start a pitching version of AYG-HAB. AYG-HP?
When they got these pitchers via trade, they had to stash the other pitchers.
Why is Severino on 60-day IL? Why is Monty gone?
Maybe because of player options...
I was looking for some info about options...found this:
https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/yankees
Severino is out of options so he can't be sent down. Monty was out of options and the Yanks weren't going to sign him next year so they got something for him that made sort of sense. German is out of options so they had to keep him. So they sort of have just enough arms for the rest of the season, barring further injuries which has hurt our pitching staff. Not having Green, King and Gil has made a difference in a negative way.
Now were on the Zach Britton watch...seriously...and when that happens, who are you going to take out? It has to be someone with options or a fake injury. Probably Marinaccio...
By the way the original Das Boot German series was great...they used to do a two night viewing in NYC every year...
Also, the 26 man roster expands to 28 for the month of September.
The Montgomery trade might’ve made sense in the offseason, if they weren’t going to re sign him after 23. It makes no sense to do it now in the middle of the home stretch, especially for a guy that won’t be playing
https://nypost.com/2022/08/04/jordan-montgomerys-fiancee-posts-yankees-engagement-pics-before-trade/
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2022/jun/20/yogi-berra-the-man-behind-baseballs-greatest-catchphrases
Brilliant, Duque! Just brilliant.
I know what you mean about Cashie. This is going to sound much more mean than is intended, but he reminds me of a rat, or maybe a cockroach.
Repulsive looking creatures you don't want around, maybe...but DAMN, they're good at surviving. After awhile you have to sort of admire how well they manage to cope with everything.
And you're right, Bitty. He's never going away. Not until he decides to retire, or for some reason the Steinbrenners decide to sell the team (and in the latter case, the Dolans will probably keep him on).
DickAllen, I'm the one who keeps mentioning how bad a pitcher Montas is outside of Oakland. I assume those stats are for this season—but lifetime, it's not much better. His OO (Outside Oakland) ERA is 4.34.
Incredible.
duque writes, "I direct your attention to Estevan Florial, who not long ago was being relentlessly hyped by the Yankee/YES bullshit machinery. That he has not received a shot at the majors is sort of sad, sort of outrageous." It's easily explainable, as we have noted before: the Yankees under Hal have become an even more racist franchise than they were under George, one that can tolerate only a set quota of very dark faces in the starting lineup.
duque writes, "But we've now gone 12 years without a world series, and before 2009 - our last championship - we went 8 without squat. Cash's greatest success was inherited from Gene Michael and Bob Watson, who built Joe Torre's teams of the 1990s." By all accounts, Buck Showalter was a major influence on Michael in sticking to the program of nurturance and patience with young players, including those like Bernie Williams and Mariano Rivera that psycho-George wanted to trade off for nothing. I am quite sure that duque's failure to note Showalter's key role in building that nineties dynasty has nothing to do with petty partisan spite, now that Buck is leading the Mets to a championship season. Quite sure.
You have to wonder whether Soto's dark complexion had anything to do with Yankee management not making serious offers for him. Could be. It does seem that management tolerates dark skinned pitchers, but not dark skinned everyday players. If they are indeed looking at everything through color coded glasses, it's just a damned shame. Just another item on the priority list that doesn't include winning.
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