Does "clutch" even exist?
Many statheads don't think so—and they have a point. So many of the ways we try to define clutch end up as chimeras.
"Men in scoring position"? Well, isn't first base a "scoring position"? Isn't home plate, if the batter puts the ball in the grandstand?
"Late and close"? Do runs in the first inning not count anymore? If you're up 10-0 by the third, isn't that actually easier on your pitching staff?
The postseason?
Sure, there are some epically bad postseason flops, such as the recently resurfaced Nick Swisher, who in 185 October plate appearances managed to compile a .165/.277/.297/.575 slash.
But usually, the postseason means a very short time to face some of the top pitchers in the game, and simply provides too small a sample size.
Willie Mays slashed .247/.323/.337/.660 in a mere 99 plate appearances scattered over 23 seasons, including just 1 NLCS home run. Was the Say Hey Kid not clutch?
Mickey Mantle set the record for home runs in the World Series, and had a .908 OPS, but batted just .257, far below his lifetime, regular-season average of .298. Was The Mick not clutch?
Of course, everybody KNOWS A-Rod wasn't clutch...though in the end, his .259/.365/.457/.822 line and 13 homers in 330 plate appearances was far from terrible, and he had some very good postseasons, including a great 2009 that got us our last ring.
So...what is clutch?
Well, Reggie Jackson, famously one of the very best postseason players ever, described it as the ability to stay within yourself and just hit as you normally do.
I'd say that's a pretty good definition. And by those lights, the strategy and tactics of the New Baseball PRECLUDE players from EVER being consistently clutch.
You've heard the classic phrase: "He was up there trying to hit a five-run homer." Again and again, we've all seen it: the guy who is trying to do to much, to carry the whole team on his back, and make every at-bat the greatest ever.
Well, that's what the New Baseball approach demands. That's what the strategy of, "Go up there and swing for the fences, every single time," makes players do.
Right now, I would say that it's killing the Yankees' young players, just as they should be developing. The whole lineup is turning into a gray goo of .240 hitters who specialize in solo homers.
The Yanks have now gone 22 straight games—23, if you count the Washington make-up—without scoring more than 8 runs in a game, something that happened once on this streak. They've gone 12 games without scoring more than 5 runs—something that also happened once.
And once again last night, the team left 10 men on base, five of them on second or third.
The New Baseball is killing the potential of this team, even as it starts to bloom. It is teaching hitters how NOT to play the game, and leaving them frustrated and confused. It's also going to kill the bullpen.
It was nice to pull out the nightcap last night, even after Sonny "Ice Water for Blood" Gray could not get an out in the sixth inning. But once again, that required pretty much all the horses in the pen. That's pretty much the only way the Yanks win now, and it cannot last.
Tuesday, June 19, 2018
What Is Clutch?
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44 comments:
I have been worrying about the increasing number of runners stranded, the 2-hit single that is never converted, and the slow decline into, as you put it, “grey goo”. Thanks for putting it into words!
The only player who has a large body of work in the postseason and performed better than during the regular season is The Great Mariano Rivera.
Blessed be his name.
So endeth the JuJu.
Under his eye.
So, "ladies in scoring position" would be LISP, correct?
And yes, hallowed be Mo's name.
Blessed be The Great One's Name, indeed, TWW and 13bit!
However, I think there are at least a couple of others who also did better in the postseason. It all depends on what you mean by "a large body of work," of course. But there are the following:
—Reggie Jackson, with 318 October plate appearances (PA):
Regular season: .262/.356/.490/.846
Postseason: .278/.358/.527/.885
—Billy Martin, with 105 PA:
Regular season: .257/.300/.369/.669
Postseason: .333/.371/.566/.937
—The Chairman of the Board, Whitey Ford, with 22 World Series starts:
Regular season: 2.75 ERA, 1.215 WHIP
Postseason: 2.71 ERA, 1.137 WHIP
(I was all prepared to point out Ford's estimable 7 complete games in this 22 Series starts. But incredibly, he completed 156 of his 438 regular-season starts, a somewhat better percentage.)
—Babe Ruth, believe it or not.
The Babe compiled a 1.164 OPS during his regular season career...but had a 1.214 OPS in 167 World Series plate appearances.
—Lou Gehrig, with 150 PA:
Regular season: .340/.447/.632/1.080
Postseason: .361/.483/.731/1.214
(Yes, you read that correctly. Both Ruth AND Gehrig had a 1.214, World Series OPS. And that was with Gehrig already in the throes of ALS during his last Series, and the Babe undergoing a devastating injury that kept him out of most of the 1921 Series.)
But hey, it seems as if I am still missing someone. Who could that be? Hmm...
Oh, right!
—Derek Jeter, with an amazing, 734 postseason PA:
Regular season: .310/.377/.440/.817
Postseason: .308/.374/.465/.838
Clutch exists because choking exists as anyone who has ever blown a two-foot putt can attest. In golf it's called the yips.
There are situations that call for greater awareness and ask for greater performance. Or, in the absence of that, as Reggie defined it "Hit as you normally do"
I would take that even further. There is a phrase, "Rise to the occasion" where the importance of the event requires clarity and action that goes beyond "what you normally do". Remember Reggie's normal and Brian Doyle's normal are two very different things. Tanaka seems like a guy who takes it up a notch in the playoffs.
When we as fans try to figure out who is clutch we often fall victim to confirmation bias. If Hicks strikes out with no one on it's an out. If he strikes out with a guy on third and less than two outs he's not clutch. Same K.
I guess it comes down to who you want up with the game on the line. Right now on the Yankees it would be... Not Judge, Stanton, Hicks, or Sanchez. Maybe Bird in a few weeks. So, Gardner, AnDUjar, or Gleybar. Weird isn't it?
Doug K.
"Statheads"--you mean people who actually investigate reality rather than robotically regurgitating what they heard from their grandfathers and idiots like Sterling?
Anon, I don't think anyone said that. I think that advances metrics have failed to show any thing like "clutch" play in any sport. Whether that is because it truly doesn't exist, or because advanced statistical analysis is still in it's infancy is the nature of this discussion. You may not have understood that. Because, you know, you're hard of thinking.
Win Warblist, I didn't mean "stathead" as anymore of an insult than Jimmy Buffett fans do when they call themselves "parrotheads." I admit to being a bit of a stathead myself.
And as I went on to write, the statheads are absolutely right about most definitions of clutch.
I think it's undeniable, though, that pressure situations make some players try to do to much (or at least, I'll take Reggie's word on it). And that's my point. When the Lords of the New Baseball tell everybody, "Go up and swing out of your shoes, every time, no matter what the situation," they are essentially ordering players to not be clutch.
Hoss, Billy Martin is definitely small sample size. Both Ruth and Gerhig have preposterous career and postseason numbers. But they only played in a single round of the postseason and have relatively few PA as compared to Jeter for example. Their performance in the postseason is better, but Jeter is within a few percentage points of his lifetime numbers. The Great Mariano Rivera (hallowed be HIS name) pitched more than 140 innings in the postseason, a huge sample for a reliever/closer. His lifetime WHIP was 1.0003. In the postseason, His WHIP was 0.759. That's significantly better. Presumably those innings were thrown against against better hitting teams. That is a remarkable 24% improvement over His already remarkable lifetime WHIP, which is third on the all-time leader-board!
Exactly! People who investigate reality is correct, Although I also think of them as humorless, thin-skinned, dickless morons, as well. That’s just me, though.
Hoss, I don't think of Stathead as an insult. I used advanced metric analyses to dominate my old Strat-O-Matic baseball league for years. And I wasn't referring to you, but rather to the Anon @ 2:17PM.
I get surly Tuesday afternoons. It's my long day in the office. I start out surly too, most days.
Okay, I'm just cussedly surly pretty much all the fuckin' time.
Anon, you may need to get out more. The sunlight will raise your Vitamin D levels and hopely improve your mood. Or give you skin cancer. Whatevs.
We all need to lay down our differences and just wash in the love and the game. It's only fucking baseball, for God's sake.
I'm going to spread the love. Who wants to go first?
Skin cancer is rarely fatal as long as it isn't melanoma??
Did I do that correctly, 13bit?
I went to college with a guy from rural Maine. He's one of the smartest guys I know. Some time during the 1980-81 school year, he introduced us, his roommates, to Bill James and his extracts. My friend probably came across it in a classified ad in the back of either Rolling Stone or the Sporting News.
At the time, my opinion was that the Sporting News represented the most comprehensive coverage of the game you could find. James' extract was not as broad as SN but it went deeper. It's sort of unbelievable that he found it way back when. I respect my friend's opinions and baseball acumen and I'll never be in his league.
During the early 2000s, and before the Sox won in 2004, people actually still engaged in email debates concerning whether Jeter, Garciaparra, or A-Rod was the better shortstop. During one of those email exchanges, this friend -- a Red Sox fan by DNA -- wrote a sentence along the lines of:
If I had to pick a shortstop with the future of the earth on the line, it pains me
to say it, but I'd take Jeter.
I thought it was an apt way to represent "clutchness". I still do.
Like a pro. Like Ghandi. Like Keith Richards in 1969.
WinWarblist, I didn't think you were insulting me. I just wanted to make it clear that I respect stat guys.
I think James and others really did brilliant work in turning around how we see baseball, in one key way after another. I just fear that some front office folks and managers take it too far in trying to get rid of situational hitting altogether—and the proposed "ban on shifts" by Manfred is an equally stupid reaction to it.
LBJ, you're quite right...especially because both Nomar and A-Rod were obviously juicing. Jeter also deserved the MVP in 1999, but was robbed by Pudge, who was also a juicer. Still worse, Jorge is not going to make the Hall because Juicing I-Rod made him the no. 2 catcher in the AL for many years.
Oh, and WinWarblist, yeah, those guys in the past did get fewer at-bats in the postseason...on the other hand, the ones from the divisional years were getting more at-bats against lesser teams, a number of which had actually finished second.
But..you are COMPLETELY right about Mariano.
Oh, Mariano, Mariano, Mariano...
What can I say? You're completely right about his postseason stats.
What makes them even more spectacular? He was so often pitching at TWICE his normal length, thanks to Joe Torre's (bless his name, too!) inane postseason strategies.
This always used to astound me—take a relief pitcher at the END of the season, when he is almost always at his most tired, and pitch him at twice his normal length. It's particularly idiotic to do this when, as early as 2002 in Buster Olney's "Last Night of the Yankee Dynasty," you already have stats showing that Mariano's effectiveness—like that of all relievers—declined noticeably in his second inning of work.
It's not just Torre. I have had conversations with current and former ballplayers about this, and they just don't get it—or refuse to get it.
Their response is always along the lines of, "Hey, when it's the playoffs, you have to step up, play hurt, etc., etc."
That's all well and good for, say, a day-to-day player. But a pitcher's arm is just NOT going to get stronger because you want it to. The refusal to believe that, on the part of so many managers over the years, is the root of all human tragedy.
OK--so now it's clear who is driven to initiate all the psychopathic invective on this site: the drunken emotional wreck and fourth-rate medical hack WinWarblist, the diseased, foaming mad-dog other Anon, etc.--the usual suspects.
Statistical analysis being in its infancy has nothing to do with the analysis of clutch, as anyone who is not a moron and who has actually read the literature on this subject would immediately grasp. The issue is really quite simple, if you're not a psychologically damaged and/or an intellectually handicapped caricature of a human being:
In EVERY case, over a sufficiently large sample size--say, a full-time career of at least five years--where batting statistics in "clutch" situations (late and close, runners in scoring position, etc.) equal or exceed those of a full season of play, they NEVER diverge appreciably from the statistics of the same players' overall career numbers: not in BA, HR, slugging, OBA, etc.
Hence there is PROVABLY no such thing as a "clutch" player. There, are, however PROVABLY such things as feral imbeciles blighting the human race throughout the history of the human race, which is why we are facing possible near-term extinction from climate and ecological disaster without even a hint of the radical awareness and emergency actions needed to avert these looming catastrophes.
One might hope--imagine--that a baseball blog would provide at least some small respite from this roiling malice and stupidity. But it only furnishes more evidence of the pandemic, and none of the desired relief.
HC66--don't dare natter on about your respect for James and other unnamed "stat guys"--unnamed because you have no idea who they are because you have never read a single book on the subject, by your own admission.
They are no more "stat" guys or "statheads" than you are--the difference is that they have the inuitive analytical skills and shrewdness to understand, for example, that ERA doesn't tell you as much about a pitcher's real effectiveness as FIP because the former is skewed by ballpark factors, team defense, the luck element of BABIP, and so on, whereas the latter precisely prescinds from all that to focus only on those variables pertaining to pitching performance.
So yes--you are a "stathead," but a stupid stathead--a flathead. That--and not the use of statistics--is the difference. Clear enough now, assembled sputtering assholes?
http://research.sabr.org/journals/the-statistical-mirage-of-clutch-hitting
https://www.fangraphs.com/library/considering-high-leverage-performance-and-clutch-hitting/
The other "Anon"--the psychopathic bulldog who posts nothing but deranged invective on this site--has seething contempt for people who investigate reality rather joyously disporting neck-deep in long-discredited mythologies and prejudices. He must walk around with "Make America Great Again" emblazoned on his torn, never-laundered tee-shirt.
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/2656/baseball-prospectus-basics-the-concept-of-clutch/
The night Mariano Rivera forgot to turn on his "clutch" switch:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gNt3UuDTBz8
Another time Mariano forgot to turn on his clutch switch:
" from the 1997 American League Division Series between the New York Yankees and the Cleveland Indians.
The Yankees were leading the series, 2-1, going into Game Four of the best of five series. In Game Four, it was a classic pitching matchup between Dwight Gooden and Orel Hershisher. The score was 2-1 going into the bottom of the eighth inning.
Mariano Rivera served as the set-up man for John Wettleland in 1996 and 1997 marked his first year as the closer.
With two outs, Sandy Alomar Jr. hit a home run off of Mariano Rivera to tie the game. The Yankees would then lose the game in the ninth when Ramiro Mendoza gave up a game-winning one-run single to Omar Vizquel."
Two more times Mariano Rivera forgot to turn on his clutch switch:
the 2004 American League Championship Series between the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox.
The Yankees had a three games to none lead entering game four. All they needed was to win one more game and they'd be headed to the World Series.
When Mariano Rivera entered the game in the eighth for his typical two-inning save, Yankees fans rejoiced. The eighth inning was fine for Rivera; it wasn't until the ninth that he ran into trouble.
Rivera allowed a lead-off walk to Kevin Millar in the ninth. Dave Roberts was then brought in to run for Millar. Everyone in the world knew that Roberts was brought in solely to steal his way into scoring position so Rivera threw to first three straight times. On Rivera's first pitch to Bill Mueller, Roberts broke for second and successfully stole the base.
Rivera then gave up a single to Muelller and Roberts scored to tie the game. The Red Sox would later win the game in the twelfth inning on a two-run home run by David Ortiz.
The Yankees were still up 3-1 in the series and still needed just one more win to advance to the World Series.
This leads us to Number 16 in this list.
"2004 ALCS Game Five: Mariano Rivera
5 OF 20
BOSTON - OCTOBER 18: Dave Roberts #31 of the Boston Red Sox celebrates with his teammates after scoring on a game tying sacrafice fly-out by teammate Jason Varitek #33 in the eighth inning against the New York Yankees during game five of the American Lea
Doug Pensinger/Getty Images
The blown save I have ranked as Number 16 happened the day after the blown save I have ranked as number 17. It also came from the 2004 American League Championship Series.
This time it was Game Five. It was the eighth inning again, and like the night before, Mariano Rivera was brought in to save the day and the series. Only this time the eighth inning didn't go smoothly.
Tom Gordon started the eighth inning for the Yankees, giving up a lead-off home run to David Ortiz, a single to Kevin Millar (who once again was replaced by Dave Roberts) and a single to Trot Nixon which moved Roberts to third. That's when Joe Torre decided to bring in Rivera.
While this blown save wasn't as exciting as the night before, Rivera gave up a sacrifice fly to Jason Varitek and the game was tied.
The Red Sox would go on to win this game in 14 innings, on a game-winning single by David Ortiz.
The Red Sox would then win Games Six and Seven, becoming the first team in baseball history to come back from being down 3-0 in a best-of-seven series on their way to the first World Series in franchise history since 1918.
The only reason Rivera's two blown saves from this series aren't ranked higher is because the Yankees still had two chances to redeem themselves and didn't. If the blown saves came in Games 6 and 7, then they would be ranked much higher. This was Rivera's third blown save in this list so far. He's only blown five saves total in his post-season career, so keep reading to see if his remaining two blown saves make this list and see just where they may be ranked."
WinWarblist is too fucking drunk and stupid even to attempt to isolate clutch pitching situations--just compares overall WHIP like a plavering moron.
A more thorough account of the night when Mariano forgot to turn on his "clutch" switch for the worst blown save in the recent history of baseball:
"The Number 1 and worst blown save in Major League Baseball history comes from Game 7 of the 2001 World Series between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the New York Yankees.
This is the third blown save from that Series with the Diamondbacks' closer, Byung-Hyun Kim having the first two.
The starters in this game, Curt Schilling for the Diamondbacks and Roger Clemens for the Yankees, both pitched brilliantly, with the Yankees having a 2-1 lead heading into the bottom of the eighth inning.
Entering the bottom of the eighth, the Yankees' manager, Joe Torre, decided to bring in Mariano Rivera for a two-inning save. Rivera struck out the side in the eighth and the Yankees wouldn't score in the top of the ninth, so Rivera still had a 2-1 lead entering the bottom of the ninth.
How the bottom of the ninth unfolded is why I consider it the worst blown save in baseball history. It wasn't a simple matter of one hitter hitting one pitch for a home run off the pitcher. Mariano Rivera had arguably is worst single inning in his career.
It started with a Mark Grace single. Then Damien Miller bunted the ball back to Rivera who made an errant throw to second base and Jeter was unable to make the play, putting runners on first and second. The next batter, Jay Bell bunted to Rivera and this time Rivera made a clean to throw to get the lead runner, but instead of trying for a double-play, the third baseman, Scott Brosius, held on to the ball.
With runners still on first and second, Tony Womack then doubled down the line, scoring Midre Cummings from second, tying the game and resulting in the blown save. Rivera then hit Craig Counsell, loading the bases for Luis Gonzalez.
Luis Gonzalez then hit a bloop single to center, scoring Jay Bell and giving the Diamondbacks their first World Series, supplanting the Florida Marlins as the fastest expansion team to win a World Series and also gave the state of Arizona their first professional championship in any sport.
The Yankees dynasty was over. They would reach the World Series in 2003 only to lose to the Marlins. They would win it all again however, in 2009.
Mariano Rivera is clearly the greatest closer in the history of baseball and is in the discussion for the best post-season pitcher in history. However, bloop singles, doubles and a hit batter all resulted in not only a blown save for Rivera in Game 7 of the 2001 World Series, but also the Loss."
So if you attempt to isolate and define "clutch" pitching situations rather than just nattering on about undifferentiated WHIP, maybe Mariano is more klutz than clutch.
But such analytical niceties are forever destined to elude the grasp of drunken Internet rage addicts and other assorted hot-house specimens of human mental disease.
Does lack of sunlight, attendant upon the indoor sport of sloshing down a quart of gin every day, account for the cognitive impairments evident in WinWarblist?
People aren't always batting in clutch situations just because they're batting in the postseason--IDIOTS.
I have to agree with Anon here, though I would have left out the IDIOTS thing.
Here's my idea of clutch: Lou Gehrig hit 23 grand salamis. I'm too lazy to figure it out, I admit it, but I'd have to think that that's a statistically insane number given how many times he came up with the bases loaded.
I do think some guys are just more likely to get the big hit when it's needed. I can't say this is supportable statistically. At worst, maybe it's just a nice little myth that makes my heart glow when thinking back from the depths of a cold winter. I'll take that.
Puckered!! We have a Buck's Puckered Hemorrhoid sighting!! Yaayyy!!!
Puckered's sleep must have been disturbed by our discourse. Awakened, ze probably undulated out from under whatever detritus in which zir lurks during daylight. Feasting on invective and strawmen and grubs enveloped in it's on questionable aroma. Ze then returns to it's moulding bed before being burned by the rays of the rising sun. Ah Puckered, dear sweet addled Puckered.
I long ago lost track of just who is saying what. I will only say this:
—I agree that what is often called "clutch" is a distortion of reality.
—What Reggie Jackson was saying was that some players, sometimes, reacting to the importance of a situation, will try to do too much, and as a result, do too little. This seems consistent with adrenaline-driven reactions in many human beings. I would also trust Mr. Jackson's observation, made over many years, that this sometimes happens.
—I said that Mariano Rivera was terrific in big games, not perfect. No player is.
—I also said that Rivera's effectiveness declined in his second inning of work.
His two most dramatic, "blown saves" came in that second inning of work. One was abetted by his own poor fielding (not pitching!) dealing with a baseball on a wet field, and by the brain freeze experienced by one of his infielders, Scott Brosius. The other came about in part because of Joe Torre's refusal to call a pitchout, despite the fact that Dave Roberts was standing on first base holding up a large, painted sign reading: "I WILL STEAL NOW."
—The semantics of "blown save" are wrong, being as pejorative as they are. When a starting pitcher turns in a great nine innings and loses, 1-0, on an error, he is given "a loss," with all the ambiguities that such a term includes. Nobody gives him a "blown win."
Departing from his own flawed but at least consistent strategy, Torre put Rivera into Game 5 of the 2004 ALCS with one run already home, men on first and third, and NOBODY out in the 8th inning. He gave up just a sacrifice fly to tie the game. One can pretend that this was some awful failing, as the "blown" term implies, but it was not.
—Sandy Alomar's opposite-field fly in the 1997 ALDS was more of an actual "blown save," though only one that tied the game, then lost on a routine groundball that hit the pitching rubber and changed direction, costing Mendoza an ill-deserved loss.
Hey, those are the breaks of the game, and again, even the best players are not perfect. Nobody ever said otherwise.
Is "IDIOT" now the same sort of slang as "filthy"? you know, a term normally used as a pejorative now be used as a compliment?
That Euclid with his filthy math. What an idiot!
Hoss, it's like my golf game. When I try to drive the ball 300 yards, invariably I need to take a mulligan. Yet when I just go by the old rule to swing at 80% of my strength, the results are much, much better. Don't try to do too much. Stay within my strength and skill level and the better results are expected.
There you have it. It's not that some guys do better in a high leverage situations, it's that some guys do worse. The Clutch phenomenon and Nick Swisher in the post season explained.
Warblist is too drunk to know that it's RETARDED to state that
(a) we can't dismniss the idea of clutch because sabremetrics is in its "infancy," when it draws on the most advanced statistical methods that have been around for DECADES, and when the data on this subject are COPIOUS and INCONTROVERTIBLE. The only thing in its infancy is Warblists's cognitive capacity;
(b) Mariano was a great "clutch" pitcher based solely on a comparison of regular-season and postseason stats, with no attempt to isolate anything like a "clutch" pitching situation: TOTALLY MORONIC;
(c) That WHIP has something inherently to do with "clutch" rather than overall pitching capability--also MORONIC;
(d) that it really matters to anyone but a repressed, broomstick-up-the-ass shut-in what hours anyone keeps or what time they post;
(e) that his slimy nematode really cares about "invective" and "grubs" when this damaged specimen spewed a torrent of creepy INVECTIVE about sunlight, vitamin D, someone is "hard of thinking," etc. This diseased psychopath INITIATED all of the foregoing INVECTIVE and then complains about invective.
(f) Warblist is TOO FUCKING STUPID AND DISHONEST to acknowledge that all of the arguments Warblist advanced are mistaken, wrongly formulated, have nothing to do with the subject matter, and are just plain IDIOTIC--and then fails to respond to the specific counterpoints raised, blowing up a verbal smokescreen about "strawmen" and "grubs" without addressing a single specific point. Small wonder, then, that this malicious imbecile practices "medicine" in a fourth-rate suburban group practice of the kind that is readily available to any hack who graduated without distinction from any shitty lower-rung medical school and now spends its leisure hours vomiting up deranged jeremiads at strangers on the Internet. We're on to you, Warblist. You're a diseased, pathetic lump of shit, a drunken, bloviating moron. Get help. Get a life outside a keyboard and a liquor bottle.
KD, I think you put it exactly right—and much more succinctly than I did!
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