Fivethirtyeight metawonk predicts Yanks will win Paxton deal by a landslide

Here's one you might have missed...

Along with Trump's approval ratings - (42.4%) - and the betting line on Pelosi, Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight stat-wonk blog claims the Yanks picked Seattle's hipster-black-denim pockets on this week's James Paxton deal. 

While he might not be a household name outside the Pacific Northwest, he (Paxton) offers the Yankees the potential for a second legit ace alongside Luis Severino.

This is metadata - aka mathematical juju. It's the secret sauce in all of Cooperstown Cashman's trade decisions, and along with boring Power Point presentations, it has a tendency to inspire lonnnnnng sentences.

Since his breakout 2017 season, Paxton ranks sixth in the majors in strikeouts per nine innings (11.1) among pitchers who have thrown at least 150 innings, sixth in strikeout percentage minus walk percentage (23.8 percent) and eighth in wins above replacement per 200 innings (5.7) — a rough measure of what a healthy starting pitcher might provide over a full season — trailing starters Chris Sale, Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, Corey Kluber, Noah Syndergaard and Severino, plus reliever Blake Treinen, who got a lot of work in last year.

Wow. You can start that sentence, go take a piss, answer some emails, eat a baloney sandwich, and still return for the finale. And let's give this guy credit: The argument is bolstered by statistical factados that most of us wouldn't bother to conceive, much less calculate. Bravo!

The Yankees starters were fifth in WAR last season and tied for ninth in ERA-, which accounts for park effects and the league run environment. Paxton provides a massive upgrade from New York’s weakest link in Sonny Gray (5.26 ERA). The Yankees’ staff was already good, and now it might be great. 

Well, I hope this guy is right. And I cannot dispute this avalanche of WAR and Statcast launch speeds. In the face of Fangraphs and Sabermetrics, civilian fans can only shake our heads and accept the naked ridicule of old age. You know nothing, Jon Snow. If I had a nickel for every time I'm mocked for noting a batting average instead of OBS+ or LIPS or VORP... 

Listen: I hate to be the doddering coot who was permanently traumatized by the 1980s, when trade after trade sent Yankee prospects out the door for the Jesse Barfields and Rick Rhodens of the world. That's mere anecdotal evidence, and it should have been buried with the Core Four. But like angry spirits in a haunted house, the corpses of bad trades refuse to stay buried, and when the best thing someone can say about a deal is that Jesus Montero turned out to be a bigger disappointment, well, that's still a long term ticket to mediocrity.

We all want this guy to be right. And if Paxton turns out to be a war horse, we'll come to love him. But the greatest enjoyment for a Yankee fan is watching a young player blossom, and no matter how you frame this, we just traded away our number one prospect. Right now, what I dread is what I see: That the Yankees - unhinged by Boston's success - are returning to the days of trading their future for a quick jolt. And once you climb into that dark hole, your only recourse is to keep trading. 


With Paxton, the Yankees appear to be all-in on 2019. But if Hal Steinbrenner still plans to stay within his self-imposed salary cap - while Boston spends $230 million to satisfy the Fenway Nation's cravings - these trades are just beginning. Clint Frazier will be next, and then Estevan Florial. And no wonky analyses will salve that feeling of horror if Justus Sheffield turns into Scott McGregor.

Happy Thanksgiving, everybody. Let me take this moment to thank all who blog, who comment, and who just read this hellhole outpost and shake their fists at God. Let's all agree to hate bad Yankee deals but love ranting about them. I toast you all.