Wednesday, March 28, 2018

Write this down: 96 Yankee wins, the return of Greg Bird, and a revolution in beer drinking

Comrades: Take a long gander into the picture on the right. Tomorrow Land is here! Humankind has finally ascended to that magnificent, Asgardian plane of joy and rapture, where our loved ones - Yankee players! - serve as tour guides in our regular journeys to the Isle of Stagger and Puke. 

Once again, the Yankees are leading a revolution - this time, not in revenue-generating TV networks or stadium tax breaks - but in consumption of beer. Naturally, the pearl-clutching, golden-shower-seeking, oh-dear!s of MLB are worried - mainly that they'll miss out on the beer-foam pie. They actually want to stop this innovation. Can you believe it? These insufferable Beyonce-biters suddenly claim it's wrong for baseball to link itself to beer. To beer. As in the Milwaukee Brewers. Or Coors Stadium. Or Busch. Or Bud. Or craft beer nights. Suddenly, baseball is too hoity-toity for - (pausing now to swig) - beer.

Listen: This is the greatest thing that ever happened to the seventh-inning pee-break, which some people still wrongfully call a "stretch." It's amazing: The lords of the game don't want this? Good luck with that. What we are witnessing is the March of Humankind toward a greater realm, known as Yankee Stadium, and from now on, when guzzling by myself - as a certain Mr. Christie Brinkley once said, I'll be sharing a drink that's called Yankinees, 'cuz it's better than drinkin' alone...

Which reminds me... ah, yes... the Yankees...

The Yankees will win 96 games this year and take the AL East by five games. That's me talking, not the faces in my beer,. They simply have too much firepower in the starting lineup and, more importantly, a wave of hungry youngsters eager to replace them. Seriously. If Aaron Judge goes down next month, Clint Frazier could step in, and who knows what he'd do? This isn't a case of bringing up Ben Francisco and Zolio Almonte. We would replace veterans with Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar... and actually improve.

Boston is the only team capable of beating us; the Rays, O's and Jays will be in tank-mode by July 4. But the Redsocks are way overspent - a $223 million payroll, more than $20 million above the second place Giants - and still lack replacement parts for when the front-liners go down. 

So let's address what you're thinking: What about Greg Bird? Yes, it's a huge loss for the first two months, and it calls into question Bird's long term future. But last year at this time, we'd lost Didi Gregorius for six weeks, and in a matter of days, we would lose Gary Sanchez for five more. In the modern era, it's a given that almost every player will go down for a while. What's different with Bird this year (from last) - hopefully, of course - is that:

a) the doctors have diagnosed it and treated it

b) we have a young Tyler Austin (who hit .373 last year against lefties) platooning with Neil Walking (.277 against righties)


c) we're not using
 the sinking barge known as Chris Carter. 

The Redsocks will be tough, especially if David Price returns to form. But he's approaching Sabathia status with injuries - (hasn't gone a full season in two years) - and their rotation is already missing Pomeranz and Rodriguez. They're still waiting for "Machine Gun" Kelly to emerge, and they have a better chance of seeing Rusney Castillo arrive in a UFO.

Ninety-six wins, folks. If you haven't already done it, put in your 2018 wins prediction below. I'll tally them up for posterity, and somebody will be feted on this site along with Irritabelle, the spandex IBS Lady, maybe chomping on Beyonce - yes, a convergence of Yankee peace and harmony that surely portends The End of Everything. Long ago, Nietzsche - the philosopher, not the linebacker - predicted that 50 years after the world wars, humankind would descend into the Abyss, otherwise known as cynicism. What a moron. He deserves to see his face in beer foam.    

23 comments:

Local Bargain Jerk said...


I'm going to go with 93 wins. Even with our depth and firepower, I can't stretch any higher than that due to the question marks scattered throughout our pitching staff. So, mark me down for 93.

Yankee Shamus said...

In true homage to the ‘98 team, which is now 20 YEARS AGO, I’m going with 98 wins. ALE champs, will beat the Sox in 6 games in the ALCS and will topple the DC Nats in 5 games in the Fall Classic.

El Gary Sanchez shocks everyone and outperforms Judge (.272 avg/ 44 HR) AND Stanton (.281 avg/ 49 HR) and wins MVP by batting .310 with 45 HR and 101 RBI matches with Gold Glove defense.

Severino places second in the Cy Young voting.

Rufus T. Firefly said...

I predict 64 wins -- if you're counting in hexadecimal.

Since most of the readers here are assumed to have ten fingers (a stretch, I know), and therefore count by tens, that translates to 100. Call me an optimistic pessimist.

Sonny Gray leads the team in wins.

Sanchez has a season that should win him the mvp, but is robbed by anti-Yankee bias in the voting.

There is at least one DL stint for an injury incurred in a Yankees/Racist Townie Asshole bench clearing brawl.

Neither Torres nor Andujar will start 30 MLB games this year.

A lugnut not currently on the roster will start 10+ games at first.

Friend of Local Bargain Jerk said...

As a glass-half-full guy, I predict 92 wins, AL East Camps.

The Master's secret HR call for Stanton is revealed in on Opening Day and takes it's place with classics like, "The Meckman, delivers"

ALDS win over the scrappy, surprising but over-matched Wildcard Twinns
ALCS win over the depleted and miserable BloSocks - David Price balks-in the winning run in his 5th relief appearance in as many days
Series championship over the Dodgers - who prove once again the bitter lesson we know so well that money (alone) can't by happiness

Tight security in the Canyon of Heroes but all goes well.

Urban Farmer formerly known as DutchFan said...

91 wins; I am sorry. And the Socks win the division.

Bird will get to about 61 games.
Judge and Stanton will not be performing like last year.
No ability to win games won "small ball" style.
Tanaka, Sabathia and at least 2 relievers will be spending considerable time on the DL.

Chapman and Betances. Really?

It will come down to the traditional 1 game post-season play-off lottery. Home advantage.
And that will be it.

All in all I feel quite optimistic.

JM said...

I've already said 87, but I hope Rufus is right and it's really 100.

Carl J. Weitz said...

Duque, I'm lock step with you....96 wins and an AL title!

Carl J. Weitz said...

Friend of LBJ....I still think Sterling's HR call will be along the lines of " Giancarlo...see that ball go.... all the way to Stanton Island"

Anonymous said...

I'M AT 95 WINS, MR. DUQUE.

MY EXPLANATION IS IN THE "CRAZY, STUPID, LOVE" POST FROM HOSS.

HoraceClarke66 said...

"Mystic crystal revelation
And the mind's true liberation..."

Agreed, Duque, that only the Sox can stop us—and that's only if they can come up with another starter, or several bullpen aces.

Nice piece today in the Times on Josh Gibson/ Buck Leonard—well, nice photos, anyway—which I am counting as a Yankees article since it makes reference to our own Twin Towers. That cuts the deficit to Soccer 47, Yanks 33, with it just Soccer 20, NYY 18 in March.

But the real news in sports today was that the Rays have signed on poor old Refsnyder—his third team since Cashman ruined him, and put him on the road. I have to say, I don't like that karma.

Beana27 said...

97 Wins - Win the AL East
Fall short in the World Series
Betances proves to be a total head-case
Happy baseball y'all! <3

Alphonso said...

I have " led off" this guessing festival by stating;

1. Yanks win 89

2. Boston wins east

I left about 1200 lines of explanation.

Basically, I think we have two weakened positions ( firs base, second base ) which are going to hurt us. We also have a terrible outfield, anytime Stanton has a glove on.

I originally put 91 wins, like the Urban Dutch Farmer. But then I got tough, and decided to" go low."

Joe Formerlyof Brooklyn said...


I'm not sure I'm entitled to make 2 predictions but -- like Billy in that beer commercial -- I feel very strongly both ways. Here's what's gonna happen, maybe:

A. Through 130 games, the team is 55-75. Aaron Boone is shitcanned. A-Roid ends up as manager, with all kinds of promises for 2019.

OR

B. Through 162 games, the team is 110-52. "Break Up The Yankees" is sung, a capella, by the Gammonites, thru most of September. THEN they fall, in 3 games, to Baltimore in the 5-gamer. Next, Aaron Boone is shitcanned, and A-Roid takes over for 2019.....making all kinds of promises.

NOTE: I am no fan of A-Roid. But from what I've heard (with my own ears) in terms of TV commentary, his knowledge of baseball seems to exceed the grasp of A-Boone. I suspect had he been the manager from Jan18, he might have had a Plan B for the possibility (certainty?) that Bird would not be able to fly home come spring.

Vampifella said...

Friend of Local Bargain Jerk beat me to it, but I am going for 92 wins as well. It would be higher but the Yanks has a history of slacking off when they win the pennant as everyone gets a rest and they go .250 playing their rookies and trash players.

I'm thinking Tanaka's arm will fall off and he'll be gone for Tommy John for a year and a half. Severino or Montgomery as well just to make us all think this year is a total loss. Then we'll have to play a Green, Cessa or Chance and realize how much they do suck.

I have doubts Stanton will live up to his hype this year. He'll have to be the next classic Arod in stats to be worth it and I just don't feel it happening.

Sánchez will probably still suck defensively but will probably outshine Stanton and Judge and should be MVP of the team while Stanton and Judge ends up Dave Kingman-ing the team.

Don't really see this team World Series bound if umps are going to call horrible balls as strikes like last season. Like Judge can hit a ball 4 inches from the ground? If it wasn't for that, we probably would have been WS champs last year.

Judge will surely skip the Home Rum derby. Stanton should too. As well a Sánchez! Lessons were learned and shouldn't be ignored! And they have nothing to prove as we all know they can hit a zillion HRs if they wanted to. Better to try to win a world series then break yourself hitting 50 HRs in a meaningless night for the fans. One and done should be the motto for anyone doing the Home Run derby.

I expect they'll trade off at least 5 prospects whom we all know and love for mid-level budget players in order to fend off Boston who will likely be within 3 games of us (or ahead of us) at all times. I doubt Clint Frazier will be a Yankee beyond the trade deadline and we'll get a Jaime García rental for him. Worse it'll probably be another Dustin Fowler type fire sale trade due to his injury.

HoraceClarke66 said...

Worst pick of the spring so far:

One Joe Patorno, in today's "Metro," a subway giveaway.

He predicts that the Yanks will win the division and the Mets will make the wild card, but he picks the Astros to repeat by beating the Nationals. And he picks no local players for any of the individual awards.

Joe, Joe, Joe.

Mr. (Manhattan) Chowder for Brains: you're writing maybe 250 words of copy for a local shopper. Go big or go home. Pick the Yanks over the Mets (or vice versa) in a seven-game Series. Have our local favorites sweeping the award. If you're wrong, nobody will remember. If you're right, you'll look like a prophet.

Anonymous said...

OK, I'll take a shot at this.

Black Swan/White Shadow Edition - Sorry Fonz. I know there is only one Black Swan. Also, sorry Ken Howard, I know there is only one White Shadow.

Black Swannee (how I love ya:

Aaron Boone hurts back during pick up "Pepper" game at Iona. Is out for season.

Torreyes, replaced by Wade for the utility role by June stays with the team as dugout cameraman for Univision.

Red Thunder returns end of June. One week later drinks 10 Red Bulls, thinks 4th of July stadium bunting is red cape. Charges wall. Out for season.

Stanton's HR call turns out to be "A bombardo from Giancarlo!" Shortly after this Sterling retires and moves to the Hebrew Home for the Aged.

Greg Bird is reduced to a talking torso in a real life parody of Monty Python's Black Night. " A flesh wound."

The White Shadow knows:

Gray flirts with winning 20.

Sanchez AL MVP.
Didi Yankees MVP

Neither gets 1/3 of the attention of Judge/Stanton

Yankees win 94. Red Sox implode.

Bentances and Andujar traded at deadline (sigh)

Playoffs are a crap shoot. We're in though.

Doug K.











Anonymous said...

Hate to go with an already-crowded field, but I'm in for 92 wins - - we might have to fight over Irritabelle, the IBS Lady, as Our Fearless Leader has dubbed her.

duque's 96 feels about right, except 1) I have no faith in Boonie (didn't when he was a player, either) - - and, especially, absolutely, positively, NO faith in Cash-Puss...so I have to bring in my special algorithm here - -feeling generous today, I am subtracting 4 WAR (pick which kind, I don't care) for our feckless management; 2) those dirty, rotten juju bozos have screwed us almost as often as the umps have screwed our players; and, 3)I never saw one, single, solitary meaningless game all spring (thanks a bunch, MLB - - a shame you don't want my money, because I live about 1,000 miles away from the current Fiasco on River St. & 161st!! 4)be easy on me - - I have senioritis, after all... LB (No J)

The Ghost of Yankees Past said...



While is hurts to write this, I am calling it as I see it.The redsocks win 95 and the Yankees win 93. They filled a huge hole with JD Martinez. Stanton is a big pick up for us . But if has his average year , for his eight year career , his batting average is .268, hits 36 home runs and has less than 100 RBI. First, second and third for the Yankees are a question. While we should get solid play at second and third, I don’t see game changers. Unless Wade can have a breakout year. That is a lot to hope for. Finally, the depth in our starting pitching is weak.

The best team in the American League is still Houston. The Yankees don’t make the World Series. The rebuild is not complete. We are still a year away. I hope I am wrong. Say it ain’t so Joe!

HoraceClarke66 said...

Yes, Martinez was huge for them—and not re-signing him dropped Arizona back, I think, from real contender to also-ran. Idiotic.

BUT...if we're talking average seasons, J.D.'s over his 7 seasons in the majors have averaged all of 68 ribbies.

It's true that, over a projected, 162-game season, Martinez's stats come out to 32 HR, 100 RBI, and .285/.342/.514.

But then, over a projected 162 games, Stanton's stats are 44 HR, 110 RBI, .268/.360/.554.

And just like Stanton, Martinez has never actually reached those full, 162 games. He's averaged a little over 110 games a year, as opposed to 123 for Stanton.

Not that that need make any difference. One could get hurt, and the other could be fine. But what I worry more about is Boston creating another terrific pitcher out of nothing.

Parson Tom said...

I agree. All of it. I agree.

joe de pastry said...

I will never be optimistic until we win another playoff series from the red sux--2004 still haunts me. so I say 88 wins and a wild card game loss. oh, and about that 7th inning thing--don't try to take a pee break during god bless amerika at YS III. the Steinbrenner gestapo will break your arms.

BernBabyBern said...

I don't know what to think of this Yankee team.

I want to believe the hype. I want to believe that we've got the second coming of the M&M boys, a 21st century Murderers Row. I want to believe that Gary Sanchez adds his name to the Dickey-Berra-Howard-Munson-Posada line. I want to believe Luis Severino is an ace and a Cy Young contender. I want to believe 100-plus wins is on the horizon.

But I wouldn't be a part of this website if I was prone to optimism.

Prediction: Stanton will contend for MVP, but Didi will again be the real glue holding the club together (of course, he will be ignored outside of NY because everyone will be focused on Judge and Stanton). Aaron Hicks will be a key. He looked like he could be a breakout star at times early last year before the injury woes and the awful finish. He won't quite be as good as he looked early, but he'll be solid with 20-25 or so HRs and 80-85 RBIs. Greg Bird will be the great might-have-been, teasing us with talent but spending far too much time on the IR for another mostly wasted season.

Severino will have growing pains, but finish strong and win 16. CC will be more valuable in the clubhouse than on the field. We'll trade Clint Frazier for an arm at some point. Sonny Gray will be solid, Tanaka shaky. By the end of the season, Yankee fans will be thanking God for Tommy Kahnle and Chad Green.

And Judge will be Judge. We will marvel at his  power, but he'll have as many strikeouts as Twitter has typos and have stretches where he'll look like he's lost. With all the faults and frustrations, though, he'll look otherworldly at times. He'll still be a star.

How big a star, though, won't be known until the postseason.

93-69, AL East title by a game over the redsocks.

(Confession. I wrote this before looking at other predictions and had the Yanks at 92-70. Then I saw the slew of 92-win picks, so I changed it to 93.)

P.S. - Is it just me, or does that beer foam make Aaron Judge look like he has a "Duck Dynasty" beard?

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