Wednesday, May 26, 2021

With a full count on Aaron Judge, what are our chances? Deconstructing Judge - pitch by pitch

Last night, in the bottom of the first, Aaron Judge battled to a full count against the odious former Met, Steven Matz. 

In that moment, Judge faced a statistical flashpoint. Over his six-year MLB career - long enough to draw digital conclusions - on 3-and-2 pitches, he was just slightly more likely to walk (163 times) than strike out (155 times.) 

Well, he fanned - his 156th full-count K - foreshadowing a dismal Yankee night. And I mean dismal. In fact, I have a question for the juju gods. 

One game after his no-hitter, could you actually injure Corey Kluber? 

If so, that's the cheapest shot you've ever taken. You should be ashamed. You call yourselves deities? You should be fixing musical chairs kiddy mixers in snake-passer church basements. And don't think having Clint Frazier heat up is a fair trade. This Kluber shoulder business is one of the slimiest things you've ever done, and I'm including Scott Proctor. I'm warning you: DON'T MAKE ME TAKE OFF MY BELT!

So, where were we? Ah, yes, we're taking a statistical deep dive into Aaron Judge, the heart and soul of the Yankees. In his sixth year, this is no small sample. This is him, courtesy of Baseball Reference.  

When ahead in the count, he is Ruthian. When behind, he's Ruth Buzzi. 

On a 3-2 count, he has a 50-50 chance of reaching base. (Which is pretty good.) 

With two strikes, or behind on the count, his batting average is rather dreadful - below .200. But with two balls - especially a 2-0 count - he's a monster. (Hitting .583.)

On 3-0 count, his On Base Percentage is - holy crap! can this be real? - .912. Get him up 3-0, and nine out of ten times - NINE OUT OF TEN - he'll get on base. Holy crap! 

What about lefty vs righty pitchers?

Not much there. Higher HR totals correspond to the number of at-bats. He hits both sides, equally.

He's far tougher at home.
This is nice to know.  The Yankee Stadium delirium does matter. When Judge comes to bat, go wild, everybody. 

He hits consistently all season. 

No one month stands out. The second-half drop-off stems from 2017, his breakout year, when he fell apart after the All-Star Home Run Derby. (Never again!) 

He is generally unfazed by the game situation.  

Overall, he's not one who greatly pads numbers in blowouts, though it would be nice to see a few more hits with two outs and RISP. He's more likely to hit a HR with the Yankees ahead rather than behind - but he comes up more times in such situations. 

Let's hope for some 3-0 counts tonight. 


Joe Formerlyof Brooklyn said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
TheWinWarblist said...

I agree with you, JoeFob, 100%!

I fucking hate the Yankees.

Anonymous said...

duque--nearly all players' batting stats--with a significant enough sample size--do not vary much with the game situation. Hence the myth of "clutch."

Puckered's sample size said...

analmouse once again pontificating uselessly.

Pitch your kinda crazy elsewhere. Try bleacher report, where you might actually be above the median age.

Anonymous said...

Hey PsychoNaught--and at which Web site would you find yourself above the median age--Old Fart Pamper Users' Support Forum?

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