Friday, October 7, 2022

Playoff Inflation: A Short History


Everybody's talking about inflation. Here's how major-league baseball has inflated its postseason over the years.

Number and percentage of teams making the playoffs and World Series:

1903-1960:  2 of 16, 12.5 pct.

1961:  2 of 18, 11.1 pct.

1962-1968:  2 of 20, 10 pct.

1969-1976:  4 of 24, 16.7 pct.

1977-1992:  4 of 26, 15.4 pct.

1993:  4 of 28, 14.3 pct.

1994-1997:  8 of 28, 28.6 pct.

1998-2011:  8 of 30, 26.7 pct.

2012-2019:  10 of 30, 33 pct.

2020:  16 of 30, 53.3 pct.

2021:  10 of 30, 33 pct.

2022—  12 of 30, 40 pct.

As you can see, postseason inflation really took off in 1994, when the leagues went to three divisions and it became possible—for the very first time—to win a World Series without finishing first in the long season.

The general pattern has been for playoff participation to increase, then decrease again, as the leagues expand.  That seems to be out the window now, and I think you'll see MLB move aggressively toward getting a majority of teams in the postseason over the next few years, as was done during the emergency of the Covid years.

For what it's worth, my picks are (and yes, I know one game is over, and two are being played):

Cleveland over TB, 2-0.

Seattle over Toronto, 2-1.

NYY over Cleveland, 3-2.

Houston over Seattle, 3-0.

Houston over NYY, 4-1.


St. L. over Philly, 2-0.

NYM over SD, 2-1.

Atl. over St. L., 3-2.

NYM over LA, 3-2.

NYM over Atl., 4-3.


NYM over Hous., 4-3.  


That's right, beeatches, I'm picking the Metsies to run the table!  Heh-heh.  Heh-heh-heh. WAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!






10 comments:

Doug K. said...

Cards closer went all Chappy in the ninth.

The Hammer of God said...

I just get the feeling that the Mets will be knocked off by the Padres. I don't follow the Padres, have no idea why I get that feeling, but it's there.

I don't like the Yankees's chances against anyone. I see a first class ass kicking and an early exit, by whatever team they play. I do think the Yankees would have a better chance against Cleveland, but even that is tenuous. Cleveland has a young pitcher from Brooklyn, (forgot his name), but he shut down the Yanks earlier this year and he'll probably do it again, if that's the matchup. And in a best of five series, one shutout loss and you're already in trouble.

HoraceClarke66 said...

Yeah, could be the Padres will knock over the Mets, and certainly LA is a tall order. I'm really just banking on their two aces and closer.

And yes, the Yankees could easily lose to the Cleveland Traffic Monuments. But I think that's the team they'd have the best chance against in the entire playoffs.

Besides, this seems to be their destiny in this era: win an early series or even two, then get beat by a better team.

BTR999 said...

Unsure if the Yanks can beat anyone… otherwise agree until the WS, Dodgers in 5 over the Asstros.

Beauregard Jackson Pickett Burnside said...

I’m also picking the Mets in 2022, and 2023 when they buy the big man.

Doug K. said...

Max went full Cole.

HoraceClarke66 said...

And...that Mets pick is looking REAL good.

It's a good thing I don't actually bet.

The Hammer of God said...

Betting on sports is the dumbest, most extraordinary waste of time and money. Please, please, please everybody, do not bet on sports! Especially now with the internet and tv/radio exploding with ads for legal gambling. There will be scandals that will make the Chicago Black Sox Scandal look like child's play and flea turds. You don't want to be a pawn caught up in that and lose your hard earned money for bullshit. As that old commercial used to say, make money the old fashioned way ... earn it!

The Hammer of God said...

Congratulations and a big thank you to the Cleveland Guardians for knocking off the Tampons. Something I'm pretty sure that the Yankees could not have done.

Now, I suppose we had better steel ourselves for the Yankees's excruciating defeat at the hands of the Guardians. Well, I think maybe, just maybe the Yankees can pull this out in five games. But only if a lot of things turn out right.

BTW, the "Guardians", what an awful name for a ball club. Something from the Roman legions would have sounded better. Praetorians, centurions, even Olympians. "Guardians" sounds too much like family court. Ex: Who is your legal guardian? If the Yankees lose to Cleveland, the Yanks can say "I guess Cleveland is our legal guardian".

TheWinWarblist said...

Wow, Hoss, you JuJu-ed the bejezzus outta the Mets!