The more we look at 2020, the more we fixate on Luis Severino

On July 1, 2018 - roughly 16 months ago, the good ol' days - Luis Severino was the best pitcher in baseball. That night, he threw seven shutout innings against Boston, raising his record to 13-2 and lowering his ERA to 1.98. Best. Pitcher. In. Baseball. Ace of the staff. Age 23. A candidate for Cy Young. Maybe for Cooperstown. A gem.

From there, all downhill. 

By that August, Sevy's ERA had climbed above 3.00. He finished the season at 3.39 - not bad, just nearly twice it was in July, due to a steady drip-drip-drip of walks and gopher balls. (And yes, in case you are wondering: one of his poundings occurred in Boston - four runs in five innings - where the Magical Mr. Cora may have been working the video room. But it must be noted that Sevy was clobbered far worse by the Redsocks in the playoffs - in Yankee Stadium: Six runs in three innings, leading to a 16-1 rout.) 

We know what happened last year - sorta. On the Ides of March, Sevy went out with a rotator cuff inflammation, the bane of pitchers in the 1970s. He was supposed to return in April, but suffered a Grade 2 lateral strain. He was supposed to return in June, but tweaks happened. I still can't figure it out, but the short answer is that the Yankees cleaned house of their rehabilitation trainers this winter. Mistakes were made.

Turned out, Sevy returned in September, having to rehab in major league games. He made three regular season starts, dominant in the first and shaky in the third. In last fall's playoffs, he pitched four shutout innings against Minnesota, and then surrendered two runs in four innings against Houston, (at home.) In both games, he constantly pitched out of jams. 

And that's it, folks. Five starts, small sample size, not much to say about 2019... that's the line on Luis Severino, whom the Yankees have signed through 2023. 

With the loss of James Paxton yesterday - (the Yankees say four months, but really, who believes anything they say?) - Rapid Response Teams across the Yankiverse immediately started beating the garbage can lids on behalf of Luis Severino becoming No. 2 starter in the rotation. And let's face it: Right now, he's as good as we've got. But it's been 16 months since Severino has been a top starter, and there are no guarantees of which pitcher will return - from the first or the second half of 2018.

From here, Severino looks like the fulcrum point on 2020 Yankees. If he returns at full form, the Yankees could have a one-two punch comparable to the Nats' Strasberg and Scherzer. With Boston on the ropes, they could waltz into October with the best record in the AL. But if Sevy continues to stumble - or, worse, becomes a china doll of injuries - the old comedy routine won't ask, "Who's on first?" It will become, "Who's No. 2?"