As a baseball community we need to heal. For too long readers of this blog and baseball fans in general have been torn between an over reliance on stats, and the non quantifiable “gut call” of the baseball purists.
Those who would "burn the binders" ignore science. Those who
think that averages over a season have anything to do with the immediacy of an in-game
situation are "asleep at the wheel". It’s
time for a new stat, one that acknowledges both truths and gives us a common
ground so we can properly hate (or love) the ballplayers and not each other.
That stat is the AYG-HAB™. It stands for Are You Glad He’s At Bat? Doesn’t matter why. You want to
say that after the seventh inning when facing a left-handed pitcher with less
than two outs the hitter is prone to striking out? Sure, go ahead. You want to say, “Why is this
guy still in the game? He sucks.” I’m with you. Because regardless of how you got there the
batter has a poor AYG-HAB™.
Conversely, you have
to pee, but DJ is up with a guy on third and two outs. Well, DJ has the highest
AYG-HAB™ on the Yankees so you might want to hold it in. Sanchez? Head for the bathroom and feel free to stop in the kitchen on the way back
because the inning is over.
It’s a flexible stat.
If a player is in a slump. He might have a lower rating. But, because it’s based on how you feel, you could like the player enough to say, “He’s
due.” Or, if you are stats minded, just
believe that he’s as good as the back of his baseball card and will revert to
the mean. Either way his AYG-HAB™ is
higher than his current performance.
Bottom line. You’re OK that he’s at the plate.
One final example. Hicks is up with two outs and runners on 2nd and 3rd. Low AYG-HAB™, but if the bases are loaded, it goes up. Why? He walks a lot.
To Conclude:
Here are
the official AYG-HAB™ categories. The First
number of the stat is the category and then you get to arbitrarily, or using
metrics, assign a second number. The
AYG-HAB™ can change from day to day or inning to inning but mostly, you know
how you feel.
AYG-HAB™ 7 Totally
AYG-HAB™ 6 Probably
AYG-HAB™ 5 Sure What the Hell
AYG-HAB™ 4 Sigh.
AYG-HAB™ 3 Please. Please. Please.
AYG-HAB™ 2 Oh crap not this guy again
And
AYG-HAB™ 1 What else
is on?
So, as far as I’m concerned DJ has an AYG-HAB™ of 7.3 and
Sanchez varies from 2.8-3.2. Hicks? You tell me.
Posts
17 comments:
This is a good plan.
I'm pronouncing it "EYE-GAB."
There should also be an AYG-HP. (EYE-GIP.") Are You Glad He's Pitching.
Fuck Hicks. And fuck Brain for signing him through 2026.
But the I-GAB thing is good. It will provide us with a great deal of amusement when the season gets here. IF it gets here.
And to steal a familiar quote: Fuck you too Harold. You cheap cunt.
"AYG-HAB," as you all must remember, is what I sound like after an afternoon of drinking and baseball.
Whoa whoa whoooaaaa, DickAllen!! Watch the language!! I'm the one who spews obscenities around here!
Finally! THIS is what advanced stats are good for!
Bless you, Doug...
Wasn't the AYG-HAB featured in "Tales of the Arabian Nights"? Wasn't he a mighty Asian potentate somewhere?
Horace, I think that AYGHAB was in some book by Melville. Pretty damned good stat. I think that Bill James would grin and agree. FWIW, I have a feeling that Hal is going to blow through the cap. Rapidly closing window and a fortune paid for a playoff Ace. The price has never been cheaper on free agents. The smart businessman buys on a low market. I really don't believe that I'm going out on a limb.
There's also the flip side of AYGHAB -- don't you fear this SOB at bat?
My all-time DYFTSOBAB is Harold Baines. Every time he was up, every time the NYYs failed to walk him (with first base empty) -- he hit a double.
Of course, this isn't something I can statistically validate. But it "feels" like it kept happening. I screamed"walking the Effing guy" at the television, they didn't, he drove in runs.
Great idea, Doug. My only question is, how did you end up rating Sanchez so high?
All,
Thanks for digging it.
JM,
I know you are kidding but it's probably the same reason they refuse to get rid of him. I've seen what he can do. But, at the same time I'm realistic (as are we all) and would trade him in a heartbeat. So...
2.8 is the high end of "Oh crap not this guy again" and 3.2 is near the bottom of Please Please Please as in "I know you can do it. But I also know you won't. What do you say you do it this one time?"
Doug K.
Dont you fear this SOB at bat, excluding Hall of Famers such as Brett and Carew who killed everybody
Top Six (in no particular order
Big Papi
Claudell Washington
Jose Battista
Mike Sweeney
Harold Baines
Don Money
Yankee Daddy - you forgot Edgar Martinez. Put that SOB right at the top of your list.
Revised List of DYFTSOB
1.Edgar Martinez
2. Big Papi
3.Claudell Washington
4. Jose Battista
5, Mike Sweeney
6. Don Money
7. Garret Anderson
8.Justin Morneau
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