Thursday, March 18, 2021

Getcha Red-Hot Over-Unders Right Here!

 From the brilliant mind but diseased computer of HoraceClarke66...

All right, getting down to brass tacks, it’s time to start putting together the Over-Unders for 2021.


First up, of course:  The combined home run over-under for The Twin Towers, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, seen here getting awards for...something. 



Let’s take a look at their progression over the past four years:


2017:  111

2018:    65

2019:    30

2020:    13


Hmm, I’m detecting a trend here—and it’s not a pretty one.  More like the stock market in 1929, or the blue whale population.  If it continues, the over-under for Twin Towers home runs in 2021 will be…6.  Or 5.  Or 35, if we want to assume that the 13 they hit over 2020 should be projected over an entire, 162-game season.


(Probably a bad assumption, considering how much time both men were unfit for duty during Covid time.)


Moving right along:


The last time the Yankees let three veterans walk off their starting rotation over the off-season was in 2003-2004:  Andy Pettitte, Roger Clemens, David Wells.


The team’s ERA ballooned from 4.02 in 2003 (3rd in the AL) to 4.69 in 2004 (only 6th in the league). 


The 2020 Yankees had a team ERA of 4.35—good for only 8th in the AL.


What should the over-under be for how much the Yankees’ ERA will rise in 2021?


Before you answer, remember:  It’s a trick question!  The 2021 Yankees have ALSO lost their best reliever from the 2020 mini-season!


Purely on the mathematics, the rise in the Yankees’ ERA from 2003-2004 was about 17 percent.  A similar rise in 2021 would put the Yanks’ ERA in 2021 at 5.08, which would have ranked them 12th in the American League last year!


Have a good day!



Anonymous said...

Doomsday Prediction: In 2021, Yanks will finish in 3rd place and out of the playoffs. We'll get our butts handed to us by Tampa and Toronto. By May, most of our everyday players will be hurt and on the shelf, caused by too much weight training and lack of rest during the winter. Our rotation will fall apart, and Domingo German will be our best pitcher until he slaps his girlfriend again in late August and gets suspended 3 years.

All kidding aside, I just don't think this team is all that good. On their making the playoffs: I'll believe it when I see it. On their winning the 2021 World Series: you must be drinking the good stuff!

The Hammer of God

HoraceClarke66 said...

I agree, Hammer. 77-85, third place.

Sure, everything could miraculously fall into place.

But as the old Jamaican saying goes, "No woman, no cry." Sorry! I meant, "No pitching, no win."

—Bob Marley

Anonymous said...

Judge 28
Stanton 36

Total 64.

Judge hasn't exhibited prodigious power in a while. Plus deadder ball and change in hitting philosophy.

Stanton misses 40 games.

Doug K.

HoraceClarke66 said...

That may be the wise choice, Doug K.

Not that I would ever put these guys in the same ballpark as our two, present Glass Towers. But here are the combined figures on the M & M boys, 1960-66:

1960: 79
1961: 115
1962: 63
1963: 38
1964: 61
1965: 27
1966: 36

Mantle and Maris started off with a bang, then reached an all-time high. Then, the injuries started to take their toll. Mantle was hurt in 1962 (though he still won the MVP), and both men were injured in 1963. Their totals slumped very much as Judge & Giancarlo's (also, oddly, the name of a 1970s sitcom) did in 2018-2019.

Throw out the bizarre-o 2020 season, and you might very well expect J & G's totals to bounce back to where M & M's were in 1964, when the two sluggers were relatively uninjured, missing "only" 40 games between them. J & S will be similar ages, 29 and 31, respectively, for most of the 2021 season.

Of course, then there is that depressing dive AFTER 1964, when the injuries resumed full force. After the 1966 season, the Yanks peddled Maris to St. Louis in an awful deal, while Mantle, somehow, managed to play 144 games for the Yanks—in a DH-less AL—in both 1967 and 1968, and rank among the league leaders in many hitting categories.

For our current Yankees...well, just remember: even after 2023—the equivalent of 1966—Giancarlo Stanton will have at least 4 more seasons with our favorite team.