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Wednesday, September 15, 2021

With 18 games left, it shall be tomato cans who decide the AL wild card

So, here were are, once again chasing the most meaningless goal after the Daytime Emmy for Entertainment Talk Show: 

The MLB final wild card slot. 

As Yank fans stagger naked through these streets of mottled expectations - with that ridiculous Star Wars siren signifying two strikes - we all know the ugly fate that awaits us: 

The 2021 season will surely end as the last two did - with a sweat-soaked Aroldis Chapman swiveling to watch a bullet streak into the left field bleachers. 

Every winning scenario requires us to believe the Cuban Water Cannon somehow regains his glory and pitches lights-out through October. With due respect to el Chapo, who surely will give his all, it just ainta-gonna happen. We might as well bet on the Easter Bunny. 

But, alas, for any chance - and for the sake of our front office's holiday bonuses - the Yankees must get to Oct. 6. Can it happen? Sure. Let's say Seattle and Oakland - after mini-strokes - have fallen from contention. That leaves us, Toronto and Boston - three teams circling two open chairs, with the music soon to halt. 

Our final gauntlet offers nine games against Boston, Toronto and Tampa - though the Rays might phone in it. But games against zombie teams will make the difference. 

You cannot predict baseball, Susyn. (Or Daytime Emmys, Ellen, you horrible human being. That's right, you! Go on, get! You have no business here, GO!)  That said, here are the projected outcomes, based upon the scientific IT IS HIGH TOMATO CAN SCALE OF CIRCUMSTANCES AND CONSEQUENCES. 

 The Yankees schedule (and projected outcomes): 
2 at Baltimore (2-0?)
3 v Indians (2-1?)
3 v Rangers (3-0?)
3 at Boston (1-2?)
3 at Toronto (1-2?)
3 v Rays (2-1?)

RESULTS: 11-6 (70 losses)

The Redsocks schedule: 
1 at Seattle (1-0?)
3 v Orioles (2-1?)
2 v Mets (1-1?)
3 v Yankees (2-1?)
3 at Baltimore (2-1?)
3 at Washington (3-0?)

RESULTS: 11-4 (69 losses)

And the Blue Jays:
1 v Rays (1-0?)
3 v Twins (3-0?)
3 at Tampa (1-2?)
4 at Minnesota (3-1?)
3 v Yankees (2-1?)
3 v Orioles (3-0?)

RESULTS: 13-4 (68 losses)

The projections favor Boston and Toronto - but only by a sliver. A butterfly flapping his wings last week in China might blow the HR ball into foul territory that keeps Toronto from sweeping Baltimore on Oct. 2. It's that close. 

All we know is that if the Yankees blow either of these games in Baltimore, the ultimate tomato can, we'll want to know the best Daytime Entertainment Talk shows, because we'll have time on our hands in October. 

27 comments:

TheWinWarblist said...

So endeth the JuJu.

ZacharyA said...

The Yankees will go 7-1 vs. BAL, CLE, and TEX and fans will begin to believe; then they'll go 2-7 vs. BOS, TOR, and TBR to finish 90-72 and miss the playoffs by one game.

But hell I prefer that to watching Chapman serve up a walkoff homer to Alex Verdugo or Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in the Wild Card Game.

TheWinWarblist said...

86 wins. I am fine with FlopSweat not getting another chance to rip out my heart.

JM said...

Oh, the days dwindle down to a precious few
September, October
And these few precious days I'll spend with you
These precious days I'll spend with you

It will take a 13 game win streak type of effort for us to make it. And then we'll lose, anyway, so making it doesn't really matter.

The most inconsistent Yankees team maybe ever. Terrible, then great, then awful, then terrific, then lousy. We have a shot if we end with another terrific.

DickAllen said...



Having Chapman rip your heart out wouldn't be the worst thing that could happen, Win.

It would be catastrophic for this team's fans if they make the play-in at all. That scenario would begin the corporate spin about how the playoffs are a crapshoot, how ultimately successful the season has been, how Boooooooone kept the ship sailing with his calm demeanor and how The Intern made several decisive moves to shore up the team and lead them to glory. Harold will put a few extra shekels in his pocket to make the season a profitable one. Then The Intern and Booooooone will both be rewarded with extensions.

And then next year we come back with essentially the same cast of characters and repeat the same exhausting season all over again. Groundhog Day, Yankees style.

THAT would be the worst thing that could happen.

Anonymous said...

Amen, DickAllen.

Don't you just hate that stupid line, the playoffs are a crap shoot? Just a tautology, a truism. But the team that wins the WS always has that championship quality, whether their regular season record reflected it or not. This Yankee team doesn't have it. So the crap shoot argument by Cashman is a bogus excuse for mediocrity. Mediocre teams like this never win the WS.

I have a hard time believing that we'll win both remaining games against the Orioles. I think we're fortunate to win one. Last night, with our ace on the mound and a 5-0 lead, Sterling was saying this game was still up in the air, due to our arson squad bullpen. Two more wins against the Orioles sounds like wishful thinking.

I watched the St. Louis Cardinals' closer, Gallego, against the Mets in the 9th inning last night. There is a guy who is worse than Chapman. Gallego is 50% (8 out of 16 save chances). Hard to believe. Maybe we can trade Chapman over there this winter.

The Hammer of God

Rufus T. Firefly said...

Dick,

Groundhog day might not be so bad if you woke up with Andie McDowell every morning.

DickAllen said...

Rufus, I do wake up with Andir McDowell every morning. And some mornings it’s like the playoffs: a crapshoot.

Parson Tom said...

agreed. all of it.

this Yankee team has neither mojo nor juju ... or for that matter a relief pitcher who can be trusted. bullpens win championships. thank you to Aaron Judge and G Stanton for their hearty efforts, but it's just not in the cards this year.

The Archangel said...

I think that the term that you are all searching for is "Suckitude.

Carl J. Weitz said...

The best thing that could happen is for the Yankees to use Lucky Louie Severino as an Opener twice in preparation as a Loisiaga type shut down 2-3 inning reliever.

HoraceClarke67 said...

IF...IF...it boils down to a choice between the Yankees and the BJs for that last playoff spot, the TB Rays would be crazy NOT to tank the last 3 games.

Surely, they can see as well as we can that Toronto has the ability to run the table.

If it's down to us or the BoSox, well, they probably won't give a damn. UNLESS they figure Cole would have more of a chance to beat the Jays than any Boston pitcher...

DickAllen said...


Sounds like a Hail Mary to me Carl

Rufus T. Firefly said...

Carl really wants to win that bet.

Getting into the postseason (and creating the aftereffects) by having the DEVIL rays tank the last series would be a fitting conclusion to this season(as soon as the Yankees lose the Bud Selig memorial cup).

DickAllen said...


Rufus, you know that ain't happening, though I did get a bit of a scare when I read the headline in The Daily Murdoch that said the Yankees were bringing back an injured pitcher to shore up the staff in these last few miserable weeks. But thankfully, it was Sunday, not Sevy.

Anonymous said...

Chances of winning the wild card as of this morning:

Baseball Reference:

Toronto: 74.7%
Boston: 68.6
NYY: 48.0

Fangraphs:

Toronto: 61.4
Boston: 70.4
NYY: 62.4

Kevin said...

Parson Tom, I have to disagree with your "bullpens win championships" statement. We see teams' bullpens Losing championships and mistakenly believe the opposite would be true. Without a group of three, and better yet, four starters it's likely that the bullpen will be shot or right on the verge. Which is the biggest reason that the Yankees either won't make the playoffs, or will have a very short run. Cashman always knew how this and so many other seasons was going to play out. Likely Hal is too risk adverse to spring for three frontline starters forcing Cashman to the roulette wheel. I can totally understand Hal, Cashman has had horrible luck with starters, the reasons for the "luck" are unfathomable to me and is open to furious debate.

Rufus T. Firefly said...

The oddsmakers look as prescient as the Yankee analytical department.

Assuming there is a method to the odds, how can two calculations be that far off? Are they trained by the people who predict the hurricane path?

Anonymous said...

Statistics deals in probabilities, not certainties. If you combine the two sets of results and take them as a range, they seem pretty reasonable: at worst the Yankees have a fifty-fifty chance of winning the wild card, probably better than that, but not much better. I don't think there's any evidence for an intuitive estimate that would be much different from that.

Rufus T. Firefly said...

One prediction says the BJs have a 50% better chance than the Yankees of making the Bud Selig memorial cup game.

The other says the Yankees have a better chance.

+/- 50%, even I can predict that. And everyone knows, you can't predict baseball.

Anonymous said...

My guess is that the Baseball Reference probabilities place a heavier evidence on recent performance trends, projecting those into the final two weeks.

Carl J. Weitz said...

LOL...it is!

Kevin said...

Every night, walk into your "sports room" BACKWARDS and don't turn around until AFTER the score would be visible. We need to take advantage of every Uncertainty that we can!

Kevin said...

Regarding hurricane paths: Those paths are the result of physics equations run thousands of times by super-computers. If the "weather bookies" are so often so far off on something so important why be surprised if "Vegas"/"whoever" screws up? I can't even come up with a sentence that rhymes.

Rufus T. Firefly said...

Kevin,

Try "Orange".

Rufus T. Firefly said...

...Or Kim Basinger. That might be easier.

Kevin said...

LMAO!!!!