Friday, December 10, 2010

Not So Fast: The Sox Have Not Clinched The Pennant

My teammate Lyn Lary talked me in from the ledge with this analysis of the Sox acquisition's:

..And oh, boy, did the Boston Times all but wet itself over the deal today!  Big center headline on the sports page:  “Power Shift:  Red Sox Sign Crawford.”  Inside, Tyler Kepner pretty much declared the world championship to be Boston’s and added this assessment about the Sox losing Martinez and Beltre, while adding Gonzalez and Crawford:
“Both were dangerous hitters.  But Gonzalez and Crawford should be much better, and neither has yet reached his 30th birthday.”
No, they’re not much better.  And heaven forbid a reporter for the Paper of Record should actually look something up before stating it as fact.  The stats last year for Martinez—
127 games 32 doubles 1 triple 20 homers 79 ribbies .302 BA .351 OBP .493 Slugging .844 OPS
And for Beltre—
154 49 (league leader) 2  28 102  .321  .365  .553  .918
Both of whom, incidentally, are just  a little over 30. Now for Gonzalez:
160  33  0 31  101  .298  .393  .511  .904
And for Crawford:
154  30  13 19  90  .307  .356  .495  .851
In other words, they are pretty much the same.  In fact, as hitters, Beltre and Martinez are slightly better collectively, especially when you consider that they played a total of 33 fewer games.
Crawford is a top outfielder and can steal...but Beltre was a top fielder at a much more important fielding position.  Martinez was a pretty poor catcher...but now the Red Sox have no catcher.  AND they surrendered the cream of their minor leaguers for Gonzalez, plus an ungodly pay package to Crawford to get back to essentially where they were in terms of run production.
Not quite so amazing, is it?

1 comment:

Alph the non believer said...

Great analysis, but with one flaw.

Every time the Socks do deals like this, we take solace in how "this trade has denuded " their prospects in the minor leagues.

The problem is that the Socks seem to have an endless wealth of top prospects. Otheres surface each year.

As opposed to the NYY, whose prospects are typically over-hyped and, ultimately, bogus.

I hope I'm wrong, but this happens every year.