Friday, June 10, 2022

From ZacharyA: "You can try to convince yourself this guy (Judge) isn't a great player, but that's nonsense."

 Aaron Judge's last 162 games

.293/.372/.579 (.950 OPS) 49 HR, 180 H, 80 BB, 116 R, 118 RBI

Aaron Judge's previous 162 games
.277/.377/.557 (.934 OPS) 46 HR, 163 H, 89 BB, 114 R, 96 RBI

Aaron Judge's previous, previous 162 games
.275/.399/.560 (.959 OPS) 45 HR, 161 H, 122 BB, 121 R, 108 RBI

Judge has always been great. The only thing that has held him back is health.

Recently he's been more aggressive at the plate, trading walks for hits and seeing a drop in strikeouts (30.7 K% in 2017 to 25.3 K% in 2022). Did you know that Judge now strikes out less than Mike Trout?

Since his rookie season in 2017, Judge ranks across all of MLB:

1st in HR
3rd in WAR (behind Trout and Betts)
2nd in OPS+ (min. 1500 PA)

You can try to convince yourself this guy isn't a great player, but that's nonsense.

Now, will Judge receive the Mike Trout contract (12-yr/$426.5M)? Hell no.

He's not as good as Trout was at his peak and Trout was younger.

But in negotiations, you always ask for more than you are going to get and meet in the middle.

All Judge has to do to "win" the negotiations is make more than the Yankees offer of 7-yr/$213.5M. Given his season, I think he'll be able to do that.


AboveAverage said...

Mr Sterling's Trout HR call -

That ball was SMOKED - TROUT! HE hit it OUT!

(for when the Intern trades Judge to the Angels straight up for Trout next month)

JM said...

I hope they hang onto him. I hope he can stay healthy year in and year out. I hope he stays consistent.

That's a lot of hope. Hope it's not asking too much.

Alphonso said...

Okay. I never had Judge's numbers. But whenever I negotiated for a new contract, I asked for more than I was going to get and met at the bottom.

That's why I had to hang up my spikes.

Not hitting the curve ball may also have had something to do with it.

AboveAverage said...

I hope Sevy breaks the trend of the past two games and delivers another outstanding performance.

I hope that everyone in the starting lineup gets on base today and at least 6 of them score.

I hope Judge stays a Yankees for life and signs a reasonable contract (you know somewhere around 10 @ 30 per).

I hope that Cavill gets to play Superman again.


I hope the New York Yankees win it all this year.

DickAllen said...

"Judge has always been great. The only thing that has held him back is health."

There's the rub. In seven seasons, Judge has played a full season only twice. This MIGHT be the third. That alone disqualifies him from being called a "great" player.

The Yankees have offered 30MM per for 7 years for a guy who can't stay on the field for appreciable amounts of time. He's an Ellsbury away from being an Ellsbury.

Would I pay him? NO.

Will the Yankees? Maybe.

I remember when Jeter was negotiating a new contract, The Intern basically told him to go fish. He did that to Derek Jeter. Aaron Judge is no Derek Jeter. Judge will have to produce a few more 2017s to get that kind of consideration. If he stays healthy. Which he may not. No guarantees based upon past performance either way. Right now he's having his 15 minutes.

The real problem for the Yankees is not his value on the field. Not signing him long term will be a PR and Marketing disaster for them. What they have in Judge is a face, a highly marketable face of the franchise. If they were to let him walk, they would essentially get nothing for him, which was a major blunder on The Intern's part.

Adding to this dilemma is that, by signing Judge long term for anything north of 30MM per, it gives the Yankees a base payroll of 90MM (or more) for three players who will be in pinstripes for the next six years, all declining years (think of three marquee players all age 37 or older) for the team as well as the players.

Can you picture what that will look like when Harold deems a 250MM payroll to be enough to field a "championship-caliber" team five years from now?

Greatness? Give me five more great years and we'll talk.

It's a good story, a story that could get really interesting if the Yankees go to the World Series, much less win it.

BTR999 said...

It seems impossible to see how they can pay him less than Cole, 36M per, correct? (An asinine contract when you think about it, though few spoke out at the time). I’m terrible at doing this, but I would predict something north of 300M, say 38-39M for 8 or 9 years?

Also, someone needs to explain to me why we’re paying Josh Donaldson 23M per?

ZacharyA said...

Dick, you're essentially just saying "there are no great MLB players" in today's game.

Since his first full season in 2017, Judge is 3rd among all players in WAR and 2nd in adjusted OPS. If you think that's not greatness, then there simply isn't any greatness in MLB in your eyes.

I wish Judge was more durable too, but the guys who have been more durable than him haven't produced the numbers he has.

(Also, Brian Cashman told Jeter to go elsewhere and find a better deal when Jeter was headed into his AGE 37 SEASON and coming off a 90 OPS+/1.7 WAR year. You can not seriously compare these negotiations. That's a joke, right?)

AboveAverage said...

borntorun999/George Reeves:

To answer your question - upper management got tired of listening to the same old complaints about GARY so they wanted to freshen things up a bit with a series of different and new complaints about a new and different player.

Gallo was already in the fold - so the Donaldson Deal was the only way to make this happen.

Sure we're over paying him by about 20M, and we lost Gio in the process but, as the saying goes - sometimes yah got to spend money to make money.

DickAllen said...

Zachary, I'm not as convinced as you are that Judge is great. Good yes. At this rate, he likely isn't HOF material given the slender and cherry-picked statistics you cite. The mark of greatness is in longevity and consistency.

And he hasn't proven that over the length of his career. Great short term stats you've culled, but right now he wouldn't make the Hall even as an "old-timer." Not just yet.

He may be Judge, but the jury is still out on him.

The Jeter comparison was no joke. Statistics be damned - they tell all kinds of stories depending on what you believe.

The Intern treated Jeter with disdain, like a rookie who didn't deserve any props for what he meant to the franchise. His legacy alone was worth some measure of respect. The Intern publicly insulted him, the same way he insulted Joe Torre. He's already done the same with Judge, airing his last offer in public and I suspect he will do the same after the season is over.

Having said that, would you be happy with the Three Amigos all playing in pinstripes at the ripe old age of 37? What will their statistics look like then?

ZacharyA said...

>given the slender and cherry-picked statistics you cite

Like Judge's career numbers? What?

What is cherry-picked about looking at Judge's career numbers and saying "damn, compared with his peers, he's been pretty great."

I never said Judge is a Hall of Famer or even particularly close. He debuted way too late to think about the Hall, unless he ages like Frank Thomas.

Not everyone can be Derek Jeter, but I disagree that the line for "greatness" begins and ends with Derek Jeter. There are a lot of players who weren't Jeter's caliber but were still great. You're setting yourself up for disappointment if you think a player can't be great unless he finishes his career with 5 World Series and a place on the Top-10 Hits list all-time.

Like I said, with that standard, you're just saying "no modern player is great."

Because there ain't no Jeter in this league.

And I agree, the back end of Judge's contract will be very bad. Just like the back end of Stanton's contract and Cole's contract. But the whole point is to win a title when they are 30-35 and then suffer some down years after that.

I'll trade a World Series title in 2023 or 2024 for a losing season in 2028 or whenever. That's fine by me. I want a ring.

You let Judge go and you're further away from winning a ring.

ranger_lp said...

Breaking News...Clint Frazier has been DFA'd...

ranger_lp said...

The Cubs announced a series of roster moves to reporters, including Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic. Lefty Wade Miley, catcher Yan Gomes and infielder Jonathan Villar have all been reinstated from the injured list, while righty Chris Martin has been reinstated from the restricted list, which he joined after being on the bereavement list beyond the seven-day minimum. To make room for those four players, righty Marcus Stroman was placed on the 15-day IL with shoulder inflammation, first baseman/outfielder Alfonso Rivas and righty Michael Rucker have been optioned, while outfielder Clint Frazier has been designated for assignment. The DFA of Frazier opens a spot on both the active and 40-man rosters for Martin.

HoraceClarke66 said...

That's pretty funny about Frazier...

HoraceClarke66 said...

DickAllen, I hear what you're saying about ultimate, comparative greatness. And yes, as Zach concedes, too, at the end of these very long contracts, most players will be far from their peak.

If management was really smart, they might try paying even crazier totals—for less time. $50 mill a year—for 3 years, and then we'll talk.

But they're not that smart, and the players want the security.

The way you have to measure this is: If Judge is a productive fan favorite for, say, another five season—and especially, if he wins, say, 1 ring for the Yankees and brings us to close to another 1-2—will he be worth a 10-year contract at close to what he wants?

I would say YES, when you figure the extra loot from that championship season, the contending seasons, and bolstering the Yankees' brand in general...

HoraceClarke66 said...

...And I think any truly savvy way of maximizing money from that brand is ensuring that your New York Yankees win it all, every few years.

Hal Steinbrenner, in all he's learned during his remarkable rise to the top, doesn't see it that way. He thinks the best way to maximize income is just to compete for that magic Play-In spot. He's going to be sadly disillusioned if, say, Judge goes to the Mets next season, but what does HAL care? It's not like he doesn't have soft cushion against making even disastrous mistakes in this life...

HoraceClarke66 said...

...But to your point, DickAllen: There is a case to be made that Judge should NOT get that bigger contract. And if Brian Cashman really believes that, then he should have traded Judge after negotiations broke down. He should still trade him before the end of the year.

But he won't do that. He won't do it because Cashman doesn't really think this or that about almost anything in baseball. All he really thinks about is what would please or upset his boss the most.

And even if he did really think it...he can't make a big trade to save his life. Hence, The Cashman Conundrum. We can demand he trade big players all we like. He won't get anything like a fair return on the trade.

HoraceClarke66 said...

Since Judge has stayed so far, the best thing to do would be for him to stay on. Give him that big old contract.

Will he be "worth it"? I have no idea. But I do know that Hal Steinbrenner has the money, probably floating around in his couch cushions, and I could care less if he overpays.

Kevin said...

One point that Hal doesn't want to consider. Judge has given the Org way more money so far than what he's been paid. Both in merch and in performance. Give him his fucking money and Hal will be Golden for the rest of his years (probably). Let him go and his name will be SHIT for eternity (fer sure, fer sure).

Kevin said...

Hey Clint, maybe Cash has a spot for you in AA! Beg for it, sit up, sit down.

JM said...

Nice catch by Judge.

I still can't stand Donaldson.

JM said...

I see OxyClean is the official stain fighter of the New York Yankees.

Arm and Hammer is the official laundry detergent.

BTR999 said...

We’ll lose this game.
Why Higashioka tonight? With a day game following a night game coming up, that means
he will start 2/3 games. 7-9 tonight is 0-14 with 1, count ‘em 1, BB.
I’m a little frustrated, make that disgusted with this game

JM said...

Nobody on either team can get a hit with RISP. Unreal.

BTR999 said...

Wel when you have players like Torres, who swing as hard as they can even with 2 strikes, or Higashioka, the worst current MLB hitter…

Marinaccio in, this will end it…

Beauregard Jackson Pickett Burnside said...

JM- that is very important when you’re rooting for laundry. Maybe the Tide will turn in the game, and then we can all Cheer at our Gain in the standings…. If you get my Dreft.

Beauregard Jackson Pickett Burnside said...

We’d have a chance to win, if this wasn’t just another 20 Mule Team.

Beauregard Jackson Pickett Burnside said...

When is Rinso up again? He could Wisk away this endless game with just one swing…. And if nobody does, we’re gonna play until Sunlight.

DickAllen said...

Jesus. O-16 RISP

Beauregard Jackson Pickett Burnside said...

Why do I like this team? Clearly Hal has pulled the Woolite over our eyes.

ranger_lp said...

Yankees Win!!!

BTR999 said...

Trevino, who should’ve started the game, wins it.

Time, no past time, for Higashioka to go.

AboveAverage said...


Kevin said...

Does anyone else see the resemblance between Gallo and Fredo Corleone? I see it in the eyes and mouth. Plus, he breaks my heart.🙄

Beauregard Jackson Pickett Burnside said...

Gallo reminds me more of Khartoum.

HoraceClarke66 said...

The two teams combined: 1-37 with RISP.

Helped that Chicago was so motivated that the Cubs had a runner thrown out trying to steal second. When he came into the bag standing up. O-kay.

I think the Yanks have benefited A LOT this season from so many teams just mailing it in. gotta bottom feed to win!

TheWinWarblist said...

To sum up: Commentariat to ZachA, "Hey you Kid, get offa my lawn!"